Michigan 8th

Toss-up

4 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (44.6%)

5 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (55.4%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Michigan 8th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+5.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.8

    CANTOR

  • D+2.6

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.3

    Experts

  • R+4.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+0.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+0.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Michigan 8th

We've collected two polls for the Michigan 8th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Slotkin
Bishop
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
668V
0.63
41%46%R+5.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 R+5.5
Apr. 3-5
4/3-5
Target Insyght400RV
0.36
39%45%R+6.0 0.6 0.9 0.9 R+4.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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