Missouri 2nd

Likely R

1 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (12.4%)

7 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (87.6%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Missouri 2nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+6.1

    Adjusted polls

  • R+8.3

    CANTOR

  • R+10.0

    Fundamentals

  • R+12.7

    Experts

  • R+6.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+7.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+9.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Missouri 2nd

We've collected two polls for the Missouri 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
VanOstran
Wagner
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 23-26
8/23-26
Expedition Strategies
D
402LV
0.58
43%41%D+2.0 0.2 5.3 R+3.0
Aug. 22-23
8/22-23
Remington Research Group983LV
0.93
40%51%R+11.0 0.2 2.7 R+8.0

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments