New Jersey 5th

Solid D

29 in 30

Chance the Democrat wins (95.9%)

1 in 30

Chance the Republican wins (4.1%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Jersey 5th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+1.4

    Adjusted polls

  • D+13.5

    CANTOR

  • D+22.6

    Fundamentals

  • D+17.4

    Experts

  • D+9.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+16.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+16.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Jersey 5th

We've collected one poll for the New Jersey 5th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Gottheimer
Jr.
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 9-12
8/9-12
Tel Opinion Research
R
400RV
0.50
36%39%R+3.0 0.5 0.5 4.2 D+1.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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