New Mexico 1st

Solid D

39 in 40

Chance the Democrat wins (97.6%)

1 in 40

Chance the Republican wins (2.4%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Mexico 1st

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+7.7

    Adjusted polls

  • D+12.8

    CANTOR

  • D+24.4

    Fundamentals

  • D+24.2

    Experts

  • D+9.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+16.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+18.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Mexico 1st

We've collected two polls for the New Mexico 1st. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Haaland
Arnold-Jones
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 7-13
9/7-13
Research & Polling Inc.410LV
0.89
49%41%D+8.0 <0.1 0.3 D+7.7
Jun. 15-16
6/15-16
Carroll Strategies419LV
0.29
47%43%D+4.3 0.7 2.4 D+7.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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