New Mexico 2nd

Lean R

1 in 3

Chance the Democrat wins (34.5%)

2 in 3

Chance the Republican wins (65.5%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New Mexico 2nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+2.6

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.3

    CANTOR

  • R+3.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.3

    Experts

  • R+2.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+2.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+1.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New Mexico 2nd

We've collected four polls for the New Mexico 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Small
Herrell
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 13-18
9/13-18
Siena College503LV
1.16
46%45%D+0.7 <0.1 0.2 D+0.9
Sep. 7-13
9/7-13
Research & Polling Inc.405LV
0.76
41%48%R+7.0 <0.1 0.3 R+7.3
Jun. 15-16
6/15-16
Carroll Strategies334LV
0.03
35%49%R+13.8 0.8 2.4 R+10.4
Jun. 6-11
6/6-11
DCCC Targeting Team
D
456RV
0.02
43%45%R+2.0 0.6 0.8 3.4 R+5.0

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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