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Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
---|---|---|---|
NJ-12 | 51 | — | |
MD-7 | 51 | — | |
NJ-9 | 51 | — | |
PA-2 | 47 | — | |
MD-4 | 47 | — | |
NY-9 | 46 | — | |
NJ-1 | 44 | — | |
PA-5 | 41 | — | |
CT-1 | 40 | — | |
MA-7 | 40 | — |
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
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