North Carolina 13th

Toss-up

3 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (43.0%)

4 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (57.0%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the North Carolina 13th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+3.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+5.9

    CANTOR

  • D+2.0

    Fundamentals

  • R+5.0

    Experts

  • R+4.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+1.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+2.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the North Carolina 13th

We've collected two polls for the North Carolina 13th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Manning
Budd
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 12-16
7/12-16
SurveyUSA537LV
1.00
35%40%R+5.0 0.5 0.3 R+4.0
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
668V
0.35
40%43%R+3.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 R+3.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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