Election 2018

North Carolina 3rd

Solid R

Uncontested

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
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classic forecast in the North Carolina 3rd

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

Our latest coverage

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the North Carolina 3rd
Sim. score Polling avg.
NC-780D+0.5
SC-574—
GA-1074—
FL-373—
GA-1273—
NC-871—
TN-469—
GA-868—
MS-467R+12.4
AL-267—

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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