North Carolina 9th

Lean D

5 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (64.3%)

3 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (35.7%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the North Carolina 9th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+6.0

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.8

    CANTOR

  • R+0.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+2.7

    Experts

  • D+3.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+2.6

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+2.6

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the North Carolina 9th

We've collected two polls for the North Carolina 9th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
McCready
Harris
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 5-8
7/5-8
SurveyUSA543LV
0.99
43%36%D+7.0 0.6 0.3 D+8.0
Mar. 8-13
3/8-13
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
D
500LV
0.24
44%43%D+1.0 0.6 3.5 R+1.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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