North Carolina 9th

We've collected five polls for the North Carolina 9th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	McCready	Harris	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Oct. 26-30 10/26-30	Siena College/New York Times	505	LV	1.65	44%	45%	R+1.2	—	<0.1	0.3	R+1.5
Oct. 1-5 10/1-5	Siena College/New York Times	502	LV	0.14	42%	47%	R+4.5	—	<0.1	0.3	R+4.8
Oct. 2-4 10/2-4	SurveyUSA	556	LV	0.48	45%	41%	D+4.0	—	<0.1	0.1	D+3.9
Jul. 5-8 7/5-8	SurveyUSA	543	LV	0.00	43%	36%	D+7.0	—	0.6	0.1	D+7.5
Mar. 8-13 3/8-13	Anzalone Liszt Grove Research D	500	LV	0.00	44%	43%	D+1.0	—	0.6	4.0	R+2.4

Weighted averageR+0.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll