Utah 1st

Solid R

<1 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (<0.1%)

>99 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (>99.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Utah 1st

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+33.8

    Adjusted polls

  • R+24.2

    CANTOR

  • R+32.5

    Fundamentals

  • R+30.7

    Experts

  • R+28.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+32.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+31.8

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Utah 1st

We've collected one poll for the Utah 1st. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Castillo
Bishop
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 11-27
8/11-27
Lighthouse Research600RV
0.73
16%51%R+35.2 0.6 0.3 1.6 R+33.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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