Utah 2nd

Solid R

1 in 60

Chance the Democrat wins (1.6%)

59 in 60

Chance the Republican wins (98.4%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Utah 2nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+17.1

    Adjusted polls

  • R+15.8

    CANTOR

  • R+18.0

    Fundamentals

  • R+20.5

    Experts

  • R+16.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+17.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+18.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Utah 2nd

We've collected three polls for the Utah 2nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Ghorbani
Stewart
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 22-31
8/22-31
Dan Jones & Associates202LV
0.39
34%45%R+11.0 0.1 <0.1 R+10.8
Aug. 11-27
8/11-27
Lighthouse Research600RV
0.59
27%49%R+22.2 0.6 0.3 1.6 R+20.8
Jun. 11-18
6/11-18
University of Utah147RV
0.03
24%48%R+24.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 R+23.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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