Washington 3rd

Likely R

1 in 6

Chance the Democrat wins (16.6%)

5 in 6

Chance the Republican wins (83.4%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Washington 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+8.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+4.7

    CANTOR

  • R+6.7

    Fundamentals

  • R+6.7

    Experts

  • R+6.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+7.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+7.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Washington 3rd

We've collected two polls for the Washington 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Long
Beutler
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jun. 14-18
6/14-18
Lake Research Partners
D
500LV
0.63
37%42%R+5.0 0.7 3.7 R+7.8
Mar. 8-12
3/8-12
Lake Research Partners
D
400LV
0.02
29%49%R+20.0 0.6 3.7 R+22.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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