Washington 5th

Lean R

1 in 4

Chance the Democrat wins (25.8%)

3 in 4

Chance the Republican wins (74.2%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Washington 5th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+4.4

    Adjusted polls

  • R+8.5

    CANTOR

  • R+4.1

    Fundamentals

  • R+5.0

    Experts

  • R+5.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+4.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+4.6

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Washington 5th

We've collected three polls for the Washington 5th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Brown
Rodgers
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
689V
0.64
45%48%R+3.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 R+3.4
Apr. 4-7
4/4-7
Elway Research403RV
0.51
38%44%R+6.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 R+4.8
Feb. 3
2/3
DCCC Targeting Team
D
414LV
0.16
43%47%R+4.0 0.4 3.4 R+6.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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