Washington 9th

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance a Democrat wins (>99.9%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the Washington 9th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the Washington 9th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CA-11	66	—
CA-28	60	—
CA-15	56	—
OR-3	53	—
CO-1	51	—
CA-30	48	—
CA-53	48	—
WA-7	45	—
CA-5	45	—
CA-6	44	—

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

Factor	Impact	Explanation
Fundraising	4.4 Smith	As of Oct. 17, Adam Smith had raised $574,000 in individual contributions (84% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Sarah Smith had raised $113,000 (16%).
Top-two primary margin	19.0 Smith	Adam Smith won the August primary by 21.6 percentage points.
Total	Smith+23.4

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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