New Mexico

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (99.2%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (0.7%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in New Mexico

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+19.9

    Adjusted polls

  • D+16.5

    CANTOR

  • D+24.6

    Fundamentals

  • D+25.0

    Experts

  • D+19.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+21.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+22.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in New Mexico

We've collected five polls for the New Mexico Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Heinrich
Rich
Johnson
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 7-13
9/7-13
Research & Polling Inc.966LV
1.87
47%26%16%D+21.0 <0.1 0.3 D+20.7
Aug 17-18
8/17-18
Emerson College500RV
0.42
39%11%21%D+28.0 0.6 0.3 1.2 D+26.6
Aug 2-5
8/2-5
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
D
500LV
0.22
48%33%17%D+15.0 0.5 1.3 D+14.3
Aug 1-5
8/1-5
GBA Strategies
D
800LV
0.29
47%29%22%D+18.0 0.5 2.0 D+16.6
Jul 31-Aug 2
7/31-8/2
Tarrance Group
R
500LV
0.23
41%34%19%D+7.0 0.5 4.8 D+12.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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