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>99 in 100
Chance the Democrat* wins
<1 in 100
Chance the Republican wins (<0.1%)
We've collected three polls for the Vermont Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|margin||likely voter||Time-line||House effects||Adjusted margin|
Oct 30-Nov 1
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#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report||D+41.3||D+41.9|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||D+41.3||D+40.9|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …