The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
We haven’t been able to find any polls for this race. Know of one? Send us an email.
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The third-party and independent candidates listed represent our best approximation of who will appear on each state’s general election ballot. The candidates listed will update as each race is finalized; some listed candidates may not ultimately qualify for the general election.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Rachael Dottle, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Andrei Scheinkman, Gus Wezerek and Julia Wolfe. Research by Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Mai Nguyen and Nathaniel Rakich. Notice any bugs? Send us an email.