79 in 80

Chance the Democrat wins (98.7%)

1 in 80

Chance the Republican wins (1.3%)

Candidate

Forecasted vote share

Chance of winning

Tim Kaine (D)Incumbent
56.9
Chance of winning:79 in 80
(98.7%)
Forecasted voteshare:56.9 (low: 52.5, high: 61.2)
Corey Stewart (R)
41.1
Chance of winning:1 in 80
(1.3%)
Forecasted voteshare:41.1 (low: 36.8, high: 45.4)
Matt Waters (Lib.)
2.0
Chance of winning:<1 in 100
(<0.1%)
Forecasted voteshare:2.0 (low: 0.6, high: 3.8)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
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100
us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Our model expects 2,821,000 out of an estimated 5,702,000 eligible voters to cast a ballot — that's 49.5%
49.5%
0Median90% of states with an election in this range100%
Partisan lean
Virginia is 0.1 points more Democratic than the nation overall
D+50D+25EVENR+25R+50D+50D+25EVENR+25R+50D+0.1

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Virginia

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+14.1

    Adjusted polls

  • D+12.1

    CANTOR

  • D+20.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+22.9

    Experts

  • D+14.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+15.8

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+18.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected seven polls for the Virginia Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
dates pollster sample weight
Kaine
Stewart
margin likely voter Time-line House effects Adjusted margin
Sep 4-9
9/4-9
CNN/SSRS 512 LV
1.04
52% 36% D+16.0 0.1 0.8 D+15.1
Aug 22-24
8/22-24
Cygnal 1,119 LV
0.92
50% 46% D+4.5 0.1 3.6 D+8.2
Aug 12-19
8/12-19
Roanoke College 512 LV
0.35
51% 34% D+17.0 0.3 1.3 D+18.6
Jul 10-30
7/10-30
Virginia Commonwealth University 747 LV
0.26
49% 26% D+23.0 0.5 2.4 D+21.1
Jun 21-25
6/21-25
Quinnipiac University 1,153 RV
0.18
54% 36% D+18.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 D+17.6
May 20-30
5/20-30
Roanoke College 555 RV
0.00
44% 33% D+11.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 D+13.0
Feb 5-28
2/5-28
Christopher Newport University 1,562 RV
0.01
56% 32% D+24.0 0.2 0.4 1.6 D+22.7
Weighted averageD+14.1

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. score Polling avg.
1 North Carolina 68 No race
2 Delaware 58 D+20.8
3 Georgia 58
4 Pennsylvania 58 D+11.7
5 Ohio 55 D+11.9
6 Minnesota 54 D+20.4
Minnesota (special) 54 D+8.5
8 Illinois 54
9 Michigan 52 D+10.7
10 Maryland 52 D+33.6
VAVAkeyLESS SIMILARMORE SIMILAR

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each seat.

Factor Impact Explanation
Incumbency
6.4
Tim Kaine has been elected to 1 term. Congress has only a 20.1% approval rating, reducing the incumbency advantage. The incumbency advantage is largest in small states with distinctive demographic patterns. Virginia is a medium-sized state with nationally representative demographics, so incumbency won't help Kaine as much there.
State partisanship
0.0
Virginia is 0.1 percentage points more Democratic-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2012. Virginia has been considerably more Republican in state legislative elections than in presidential elections.
Incumbent's margin in last election
3.2
Kaine won by 5.9 percentage points in 2012 in an open-seat race. Virginia has become somewhat more Democratic since the previous election, and Kaine's victory margin is adjusted on this basis.
Generic ballot
7.0
Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.
Fundraising
5.2
As of Oct. 17, Kaine had raised $9,069,000 in individual contributions (79% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Corey Stewart had raised $2,360,000 (21%).
Incumbent's voting record in Congress
0.6
Kaine has voted with Democrats 82% of the time in roll-call votes in recent sessions of Congress.
Challenger experience
1.0
Stewart's highest previous elected office is chair of the county board of supervisors, which ranks in our bottom tier of elected offices. (Kaine's highest elected office is U.S. senator, but this is accounted for in our incumbency calculation.)
Scandals
0.0
Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.
Total
D+20.1

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expert rating Rating Raw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Solid D
D+22.5 D+23.1
Inside Elections
Solid D
D+22.5 D+23.4
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
D+22.5 D+22.1
Average D+22.5 D+22.9

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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