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UPDATED May 21, 2019, at 10:43 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Philadelphia 76ers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003636SAME
+1.9
+3.3
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons32133039SAME
+1.7
+1.5
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler014220036SAME
+2.8
+1.6
Tobias HarrisT. Harris001126037SAME
+1.2
-0.1
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02920031SAME
+1.8
-1.7
Mike ScottM. Scott00019019SAME
-1.3
-0.8
Boban MarjanovicB. Marjanovic00001212SAME
-0.7
+1.4
James EnnisJ. Ennis04100014SAME
-0.9
-0.7
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell16000016SAME
-1.2
-1.0
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons000000SAME
-2.4
-1.2
Greg MonroeG. Monroe000000SAME
-1.4
+0.8
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000SAME
-1.8
+0.9
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000SAME
-0.6
-1.3
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith000000SAME
-1.3
-0.7
Shake MiltonS. Milton000000SAME
-1.7
-0.9
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000000SAME
-1.4
+1.6
Haywood HighsmithH. Highsmith000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.6
+3.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
62
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1727
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003636
+1.9
+3.3
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons32133039
+1.7
+1.5
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler014220036
+2.8
+1.6
Tobias HarrisT. Harris001126037
+1.2
-0.1
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02920031
+1.8
-1.7
Mike ScottM. Scott00019019
-1.3
-0.8
Boban MarjanovicB. Marjanovic00001212
-0.7
+1.4
James EnnisJ. Ennis04100014
-0.9
-0.7
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell16000016
-1.2
-1.0
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons000000
-2.4
-1.2
Greg MonroeG. Monroe000000
-1.4
+0.8
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000
-1.8
+0.9
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000
-0.6
-1.3
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith000000
-1.3
-0.7
Shake MiltonS. Milton000000
-1.7
-0.9
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000000
-1.4
+1.6
Haywood HighsmithH. Highsmith000000
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.6
+3.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
62
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1727
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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