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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 9:56 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Philadelphia 76ers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003636SAME
+1.5
+2.6
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons240112037SAME
+1.6
+1.4
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler013210034SAME
+3.0
+1.4
Tobias HarrisT. Harris00133034SAME
+1.4
-0.3
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02410025+1
+1.8
-1.7
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell23000023SAME
-1.1
-0.6
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons05150020+1
-2.6
-1.0
James EnnisJ. Ennis0690015+1
-0.9
-0.7
Boban MarjanovicB. Marjanovic00001212SAME
-1.0
+2.0
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith000000-3
-1.2
-0.4
Mike ScottM. Scott000303SAME
-1.5
-0.7
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000SAME
-0.4
-1.2
Justin PattonJ. Patton000000SAME
-1.9
+0.6
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000000SAME
-1.4
+1.8
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000SAME
-1.9
+1.2
Shake MiltonS. Milton100001SAME
-1.3
-0.7
Haywood HighsmithH. Highsmith000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.2
+2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1672
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003636
+1.5
+2.6
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons240112037
+1.6
+1.4
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler012220034
+3.0
+1.4
Tobias HarrisT. Harris00133034
+1.4
-0.3
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02400024
+1.8
-1.7
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell23000023
-1.1
-0.6
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons04150019
-2.6
-1.0
James EnnisJ. Ennis0770014
-0.9
-0.7
Boban MarjanovicB. Marjanovic00001212
-1.0
+2.0
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith012003
-1.2
-0.4
Mike ScottM. Scott000303
-1.5
-0.7
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000
-0.4
-1.2
Justin PattonJ. Patton000000
-1.9
+0.6
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000000
-1.4
+1.8
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000
-1.9
+1.2
Shake MiltonS. Milton100001
-1.3
-0.7
Haywood HighsmithH. Highsmith000000
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.1
+2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1672
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003737+1
+1.5
+2.6
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons231411039+2
+1.6
+1.4
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler013230036+2
+3.0
+1.4
Tobias HarrisT. Harris00334037+3
+1.4
-0.3
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02410025+1
+1.8
-1.7
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell23000023SAME
-1.1
-0.6
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons06110017-2
-2.6
-1.0
James EnnisJ. Ennis0460010-4
-0.9
-0.7
Boban MarjanovicB. Marjanovic00001111-1
-1.0
+2.0
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith000000-3
-1.2
-0.4
Mike ScottM. Scott000303SAME
-1.5
-0.7
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000SAME
-0.4
-1.2
Justin PattonJ. Patton000000SAME
-1.9
+0.6
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000000SAME
-1.4
+1.8
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000SAME
-1.9
+1.2
Shake MiltonS. Milton200002+1
-1.3
-0.7
Haywood HighsmithH. Highsmith000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.7
+2.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
59
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1691
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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