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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Philadelphia 76ers have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler012240036+2
+3.0
+1.0
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003535+1
+1.3
+2.3
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons27018036+2
+1.7
+2.1
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02280030SAME
+1.9
-2.0
Wilson ChandlerW. Chandler00918027+1
-1.0
-0.2
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00017724+2
-0.7
+0.7
Markelle FultzM. Fultz000000-19
-1.9
-0.2
Landry ShametL. Shamet61400020+5
+0.2
-2.5
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell15000015+5
-1.1
-0.4
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith000000-5
-1.2
-0.4
Justin PattonJ. Patton000000-9
-1.9
+0.3
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz006006+6
-0.4
-1.2
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000347+5
-1.3
+1.9
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000224+4
-2.3
+0.9
Shake MiltonS. Milton000000SAME
-1.4
-0.9
Demetrius JacksonD. Jackson000000SAME
-0.9
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.1
+2.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1657
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler012220034
+3.0
+1.0
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003434
+1.3
+2.3
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons22048034
+1.7
+2.1
J.J. RedickJ. Redick017130030
+1.9
-2.0
Wilson ChandlerW. Chandler00521026
-1.0
-0.2
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00016622
-0.7
+0.7
Markelle FultzM. Fultz13600019
-1.9
-0.2
Landry ShametL. Shamet31200015
+0.2
-2.5
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell10000010
-1.1
-0.4
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith014005
-1.2
-0.4
Justin PattonJ. Patton000279
-1.9
+0.3
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000
-0.4
-1.2
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000112
-1.3
+1.9
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000
-2.3
+0.9
Shake MiltonS. Milton000000
-1.4
-0.9
Demetrius JacksonD. Jackson000000
-0.9
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.1
+1.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
54
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1632
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Jimmy ButlerJ. Butler016210037+3
+3.0
+1.0
Joel EmbiidJ. Embiid00003737+3
+1.3
+2.3
Ben SimmonsB. Simmons26057038+4
+1.7
+2.1
J.J. RedickJ. Redick02190030SAME
+1.9
-2.0
Wilson ChandlerW. Chandler00721028+2
-1.0
-0.2
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00017724+2
-0.7
+0.7
Markelle FultzM. Fultz14500019SAME
-1.9
-0.2
Landry ShametL. Shamet5600011-4
+0.2
-2.5
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell300003-7
-1.1
-0.4
Zhaire SmithZ. Smith006006+1
-1.2
-0.4
Justin PattonJ. Patton000347-2
-1.9
+0.3
Furkan KorkmazF. Korkmaz000000SAME
-0.4
-1.2
Amir JohnsonA. Johnson000000-2
-1.3
+1.9
Jonah BoldenJ. Bolden000000SAME
-2.3
+0.9
Shake MiltonS. Milton000000SAME
-1.4
-0.9
Demetrius JacksonD. Jackson000000SAME
-0.9
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.7
+2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1661
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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