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More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Zach Lavine | Z. Lavine | 16 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | +2 | +1.2 | -1.8 | |||||||
Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -35 | +0.1 | -0.6 | |||||||
Otto Porter* | O. Porter* | 0 | 0 | 22 | 26 | 0 | 48 | +15 | +1.7 | +0.6 | |||||||
Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 19 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | SAME | -1.2 | 0.0 | |||||||
Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -27 | -3.1 | +2.1 | |||||||
Denzel Valentine | D. Valentine | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -23 | -0.3 | -0.4 | |||||||
Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | +6 | +0.1 | -0.8 | |||||||
Wayne Selden | W. Selden | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 20 | +10 | -2.0 | -2.3 | |||||||
Chandler Hutchison | C. Hutchison | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -17 | -2.7 | -0.1 | |||||||
Antonio Blakeney | A. Blakeney | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | +8 | -2.5 | -3.1 | |||||||
Shaquille Harrison | S. Harrison | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | -2.0 | +0.1 | |||||||
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | T. Luwawu-Cabarrot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -1.5 | |||||||
Cristiano Felicio* | C. Felicio* | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | +15 | -2.5 | -1.0 | |||||||
Rawle Alkins | R. Alkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.4 | |||||||
Brandon Sampson | B. Sampson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | -0.8 | |||||||
Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | +20 | -2.2 | +0.5 | |||||||
Replacement-level PF | R. PF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 22 | +22 | -1.4 | +0.3 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.3 | -2.5 | |||||||||||||
Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -3.6 | -3.8 | |||||||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 23 | ||||||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1317 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Zach Lavine | Z. Lavine | 16 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | +1.2 | -1.8 | ||||
Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 35 | +0.1 | -0.6 | ||||
Otto Porter | O. Porter | 0 | 0 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 33 | +1.7 | +0.6 | ||||
Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | -1.2 | 0.0 | ||||
Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | -3.1 | +2.1 | ||||
Denzel Valentine | D. Valentine | 0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 23 | -0.3 | -0.4 | ||||
Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | +0.1 | -0.8 | ||||
Wayne Selden | W. Selden | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -2.0 | -2.3 | ||||
Chandler Hutchison | C. Hutchison | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17 | -2.7 | -0.1 | ||||
Antonio Blakeney | A. Blakeney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.5 | -3.1 | ||||
Shaquille Harrison | S. Harrison | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | +0.1 | ||||
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | T. Luwawu-Cabarrot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.1 | -1.5 | ||||
Cristiano Felicio | C. Felicio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | -2.5 | -1.0 | ||||
Rawle Alkins | R. Alkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 | -1.4 | ||||
Brandon Sampson | B. Sampson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 | -0.8 | ||||
Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2.2 | +0.5 | ||||
Replacement-level PF | R. PF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | +0.3 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.5 | -1.3 | |||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 31 | ||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1408 |
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