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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Chicago Bulls have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine162100037+2
+1.2
-1.8
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen000000-35
+0.1
-0.6
Otto Porter*O. Porter*002226048+15
+1.7
+0.6
Kris DunnK. Dunn191100030SAME
-1.2
0.0
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.000000-27
-3.1
+2.1
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine000000-23
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono111200023+6
+0.1
-0.8
Wayne SeldenW. Selden02180020+10
-2.0
-2.3
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison000000-17
-2.7
-0.1
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney026008+8
-2.5
-3.1
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison202004+4
-2.0
+0.1
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot000000SAME
-2.1
-1.5
Cristiano Felicio*C. Felicio*00002424+15
-2.5
-1.0
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins000000SAME
-2.3
-1.4
Brandon SampsonB. Sampson000000SAME
-1.1
-0.8
Robin LopezR. Lopez00002424+20
-2.2
+0.5
Replacement-level PFR. PF00022022+22
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.3
-2.5
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-3.6
-3.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
23
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1317
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine161900035
+1.2
-1.8
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen00027835
+0.1
-0.6
Otto PorterO. Porter00294033
+1.7
+0.6
Kris DunnK. Dunn201000030
-1.2
0.0
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.00002727
-3.1
+2.1
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine08150023
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono12500017
+0.1
-0.8
Wayne SeldenW. Selden0640010
-2.0
-2.3
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison00017017
-2.7
-0.1
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney000000
-2.5
-3.1
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison000000
-2.0
+0.1
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot000000
-2.1
-1.5
Cristiano FelicioC. Felicio000099
-2.5
-1.0
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins000000
-2.3
-1.4
Brandon SampsonB. Sampson000000
-1.1
-0.8
Robin LopezR. Lopez000044
-2.2
+0.5
Replacement-level PFR. PF000000
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.5
-1.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
31
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1408
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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