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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Chicago Bulls have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine23100033SAME
+0.6
-1.8
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen00025631SAME
-0.6
-0.3
Kris DunnK. Dunn26300029+4
-0.7
+0.1
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.00022325+3
-2.4
+1.9
Bobby PortisB. Portis00016319-2
-0.3
-0.8
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine000000-19
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono20200022+4
-0.3
-0.2
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker000000-17
-1.2
-1.2
Wayne SeldenW. Selden04120016+1
-1.3
-1.6
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison00135018+6
-2.6
-0.2
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney03110014+5
-2.0
-2.8
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison00120012+5
-1.8
+0.3
Robin LopezR. Lopez000099+3
-3.1
+0.8
Cristiano FelicioC. Felicio000077+3
-2.3
-0.4
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins050005+4
-2.0
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-5.5
-2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
22
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1308
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine52800033
+0.6
-1.8
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen00023831
-0.6
-0.3
Kris DunnK. Dunn23200025
-0.7
+0.1
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.00002222
-2.4
+1.9
Bobby PortisB. Portis00013821
-0.3
-0.8
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine00190019
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono17100018
-0.3
-0.2
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker00116017
-1.2
-1.2
Wayne SeldenW. Selden01140015
-1.3
-1.6
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison0066012
-2.6
-0.2
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney054009
-2.0
-2.8
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison304007
-1.8
+0.3
Robin LopezR. Lopez000066
-3.1
+0.8
Cristiano FelicioC. Felicio000044
-2.3
-0.4
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins010001
-2.0
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.5
-2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
23
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1324
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine142200036+3
+0.6
-1.8
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen000241034+3
-0.6
-0.3
Kris DunnK. Dunn191000029+4
-0.7
+0.1
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.00002727+5
-2.4
+1.9
Bobby PortisB. Portis00018725+4
-0.3
-0.8
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine00260026+7
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono151000025+7
-0.3
-0.2
Jabari ParkerJ. Parker00163019+2
-1.2
-1.2
Wayne SeldenW. Selden0650011-4
-1.3
-1.6
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison001304-8
-2.6
-0.2
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney000000-9
-2.0
-2.8
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison000000-7
-1.8
+0.3
Robin LopezR. Lopez000044-2
-3.1
+0.8
Cristiano FelicioC. Felicio000000-4
-2.3
-0.4
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins000000-1
-2.0
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.5
-2.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
27
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1366
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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