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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Chicago Bulls have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine33100034SAME
+1.3
-2.0
Lauri Markkanen*L. Markkanen*00040848+15
+0.1
-0.9
Otto PorterO. Porter000000-30
+1.7
+0.6
Kris DunnK. Dunn25000025+5
-1.1
0.0
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.000000-23
-3.1
+2.1
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine000000-17
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono20000020+4
+0.1
-0.3
Wayne SeldenW. Selden08110019+4
-1.9
-2.2
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison000000-17
-2.8
-0.2
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney00150015+5
-2.6
-3.1
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison00120012+4
-1.8
+0.3
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot00100010+5
-1.9
-1.1
Cristiano Felicio*C. Felicio*00001616+7
-2.3
-0.7
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins060006+5
-2.1
-1.1
Brandon SampsonB. Sampson030003+3
-1.1
-0.8
Robin LopezR. Lopez00002424+22
-2.2
+0.7
Replacement-level PFR. PF000808+8
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.3
-4.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-4.9
-5.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
18
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1256
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine112300034
+1.3
-2.0
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen000191433
+0.1
-0.9
Otto PorterO. Porter001812030
+1.7
+0.6
Kris DunnK. Dunn20000020
-1.1
0.0
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.00002323
-3.1
+2.1
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine02150017
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono15100016
+0.1
-0.3
Wayne SeldenW. Selden01410015
-1.9
-2.2
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison00017017
-2.8
-0.2
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney0730010
-2.6
-3.1
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison206008
-1.8
+0.3
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot005005
-1.9
-1.1
Cristiano FelicioC. Felicio000099
-2.3
-0.7
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins010001
-2.1
-1.1
Brandon SampsonB. Sampson000000
-1.1
-0.8
Robin LopezR. Lopez000022
-2.2
+0.7
Replacement-level PFR. PF000000
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.2
-2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
27
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1361
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Zach LavineZ. Lavine161900035+1
+1.3
-2.0
Lauri MarkkanenL. Markkanen00028836+3
+0.1
-0.9
Otto PorterO. Porter00294033+3
+1.7
+0.6
Kris DunnK. Dunn201000030+10
-1.1
0.0
Wendell Carter Jr.W. Carter Jr.00002727+4
-3.1
+2.1
Denzel ValentineD. Valentine08150023+6
-0.3
-0.4
Ryan ArcidiaconoR. Arcidiacono12500017+1
+0.1
-0.3
Wayne SeldenW. Selden0640010-5
-1.9
-2.2
Chandler HutchisonC. Hutchison00016016-1
-2.8
-0.2
Antonio BlakeneyA. Blakeney000000-10
-2.6
-3.1
Shaquille HarrisonS. Harrison000000-8
-1.8
+0.3
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot000000-5
-1.9
-1.1
Cristiano FelicioC. Felicio000099SAME
-2.3
-0.7
Rawle AlkinsR. Alkins000000-1
-2.1
-1.1
Brandon SampsonB. Sampson000000SAME
-1.1
-0.8
Robin LopezR. Lopez000044+2
-2.2
+0.7
Replacement-level PFR. PF000000SAME
-1.4
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.3
-1.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
31
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1410
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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