Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Kevin Love | K. Love | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -30 | +1.2 | +0.6 | |||||||
Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | SAME | -0.9 | -4.3 | |||||||
Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -27 | -1.3 | -0.3 | |||||||
Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 0 | 0 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 32 | SAME | -0.5 | -2.7 | |||||||
Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | +2 | +0.9 | -3.3 | |||||||
Larry Nance | L. Nance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 16 | 29 | +2 | +0.1 | +1.8 | |||||||
David Nwaba | D. Nwaba | 0 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 22 | SAME | -1.2 | -0.1 | |||||||
Matthew Dellavedova | M. Dellavedova | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | SAME | -1.2 | -1.8 | |||||||
John Henson | J. Henson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | +7 | -2.0 | +2.1 | |||||||
Marquese Chriss | M. Chriss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17 | +15 | -2.3 | -0.1 | |||||||
Brandon Knight | B. Knight | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | SAME | -1.4 | -2.0 | |||||||
Ante Zizic | A. Zizic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | +14 | -1.9 | +0.4 | |||||||
Nik Stauskas | N. Stauskas | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | +3 | -1.2 | -2.2 | |||||||
Jaron Blossomgame | J. Blossomgame | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | +5 | -1.4 | -0.2 | |||||||
Channing Frye | C. Frye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +5 | -0.8 | -0.5 | |||||||
Deng Adel | D. Adel | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +4 | -1.4 | -0.2 | |||||||
J.R. Smith | J. Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.0 | -1.1 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -4.1 | -6.3 | |||||||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 17 | ||||||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1243 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Kevin Love | K. Love | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 30 | +1.2 | +0.6 | ||||
Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | -0.9 | -4.3 | ||||
Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -1.3 | -0.3 | ||||
Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 32 | -0.5 | -2.7 | ||||
Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | +0.9 | -3.3 | ||||
Larry Nance | L. Nance | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 27 | +0.1 | +1.8 | ||||
David Nwaba | D. Nwaba | 0 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 22 | -1.2 | -0.1 | ||||
Matthew Dellavedova | M. Dellavedova | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | -1.2 | -1.8 | ||||
John Henson | J. Henson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -2.0 | +2.1 | ||||
Marquese Chriss | M. Chriss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.1 | ||||
Brandon Knight | B. Knight | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1.4 | -2.0 | ||||
Ante Zizic | A. Zizic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | +0.4 | ||||
Nik Stauskas | N. Stauskas | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -1.2 | -2.2 | ||||
Jaron Blossomgame | J. Blossomgame | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.2 | ||||
Channing Frye | C. Frye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | -0.5 | ||||
Deng Adel | D. Adel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | -0.2 | ||||
J.R. Smith | J. Smith | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | -1.1 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.2 | -6.2 | |||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 21 | ||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1297 |
Comments