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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000000-30
+1.3
+0.7
Tristan Thompson*T. Thompson*000142135+6
-0.7
-0.3
Cedi Osman*C. Osman*002111032+3
-1.4
-2.6
Rodney HoodR. Hood011140025+1
+0.3
-1.8
Collin SextonC. Sexton24000024+2
-2.4
-4.1
Alec BurksA. Burks51800023+3
-0.9
-1.9
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson21900021+2
+0.6
-2.9
Larry NanceL. Nance000000-19
-0.1
+2.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova17000017+2
-0.8
-1.9
J.R. SmithJ. Smith000000-10
-1.0
-1.2
John HensonJ. Henson000000-10
-2.0
+2.1
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame00118019+12
0.0
0.0
David NwabaD. Nwaba000000-3
-1.4
-0.4
Channing Frye*C. Frye*00051217+14
-0.6
-0.2
Jalen JonesJ. Jones00120012+12
0.0
0.0
Ante ZizicA. Zizic00001515+15
-1.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.6
-7.7
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-4.0
-8.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
14
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1203
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000141630
+1.3
+0.7
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson000131629
-0.7
-0.3
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00272029
-1.4
-2.6
Rodney HoodR. Hood014100024
+0.3
-1.8
Collin SextonC. Sexton22000022
-2.4
-4.1
Alec BurksA. Burks81200020
-0.9
-1.9
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson31600019
+0.6
-2.9
Larry NanceL. Nance00013619
-0.1
+2.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova14100015
-0.8
-1.9
J.R. SmithJ. Smith0550010
-1.0
-1.2
John HensonJ. Henson00001010
-2.0
+2.1
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame004307
0.0
0.0
David NwabaD. Nwaba102003
-1.4
-0.4
Channing FryeC. Frye000303
-0.6
-0.2
Jalen JonesJ. Jones000000
0.0
0.0
Ante ZizicA. Zizic000000
-1.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.6
-5.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1299
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000112132+2
+1.3
+0.7
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson000201131+2
-0.7
-0.3
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00310031+2
-1.4
-2.6
Rodney HoodR. Hood02280030+6
+0.3
-1.8
Collin SextonC. Sexton28000028+6
-2.4
-4.1
Alec BurksA. Burks71600023+3
-0.9
-1.9
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson91000019SAME
+0.6
-2.9
Larry NanceL. Nance000151126+7
-0.1
+2.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova400004-11
-0.8
-1.9
J.R. SmithJ. Smith009009-1
-1.0
-1.2
John HensonJ. Henson000156-4
-2.0
+2.1
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame000101-6
0.0
0.0
David NwabaD. Nwaba000000-3
-1.4
-0.4
Channing FryeC. Frye000000-3
-0.6
-0.2
Jalen JonesJ. Jones000000SAME
0.0
0.0
Ante ZizicA. Zizic000000SAME
-1.8
0.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.5
-6.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1295
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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