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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000000-30
+1.2
+0.6
Collin SextonC. Sexton33000033SAME
-0.9
-4.3
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson000000-27
-1.3
-0.3
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00239032SAME
-0.5
-2.7
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson12900030+2
+0.9
-3.3
Larry NanceL. Nance000131629+2
+0.1
+1.8
David NwabaD. Nwaba010120022SAME
-1.2
-0.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova12600018SAME
-1.2
-1.8
John HensonJ. Henson00001111+1
-2.0
+2.1
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss00014317+15
-2.3
-0.1
Brandon KnightB. Knight230005SAME
-1.4
-2.0
Ante ZizicA. Zizic00001717+17
-1.9
+0.4
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas009009+4
-1.2
-2.2
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame000707+6
-1.4
-0.2
Channing FryeC. Frye000516+6
-0.8
-0.5
Deng AdelD. Adel004004+4
-1.4
-0.2
J.R. SmithJ. Smith000000SAME
-1.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.1
-6.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
17
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1237
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000151530
+1.2
+0.6
Collin SextonC. Sexton33000033
-0.9
-4.3
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson000151227
-1.3
-0.3
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00320032
-0.5
-2.7
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson12700028
+0.9
-3.3
Larry NanceL. Nance000151227
+0.1
+1.8
David NwabaD. Nwaba012100022
-1.2
-0.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova12600018
-1.2
-1.8
John HensonJ. Henson0003710
-2.0
+2.1
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss000022
-2.3
-0.1
Brandon KnightB. Knight230005
-1.4
-2.0
Ante ZizicA. Zizic000000
-1.9
+0.4
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas005005
-1.2
-2.2
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame001001
-1.4
-0.2
Channing FryeC. Frye000000
-0.8
-0.5
Deng AdelD. Adel000000
-1.4
-0.2
J.R. SmithJ. Smith000000
-1.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.2
-6.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1297
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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