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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000151328SAME
+1.3
+0.6
Collin SextonC. Sexton30000030SAME
-1.3
-4.1
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson000151328+1
-1.2
-0.1
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00300030+1
-0.6
-2.6
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson12600027+1
+0.9
-3.3
Larry NanceL. Nance000101121+3
0.0
+1.8
David NwabaD. Nwaba01550020SAME
-1.0
+0.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova000000-18
-1.1
-1.8
John HensonJ. Henson000022-10
-2.0
+2.1
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss0008311+3
-2.1
0.0
Brandon KnightB. Knight16000016+5
-0.9
-1.7
Ante ZizicA. Zizic000066+3
-2.1
+0.6
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas1740012+6
-1.2
-2.1
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame007007+3
-1.4
-0.2
Channing FryeC. Frye000000SAME
-0.8
-0.4
Deng AdelD. Adel002002+2
-1.4
-0.2
J.R. SmithJ. Smith000000SAME
-1.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.7
-5.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
20
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1289
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000161228
+1.3
+0.6
Collin SextonC. Sexton30000030
-1.3
-4.1
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson00020727
-1.2
-0.1
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00290029
-0.6
-2.6
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson02600026
+0.9
-3.3
Larry NanceL. Nance00081018
0.0
+1.8
David NwabaD. Nwaba010100020
-1.0
+0.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova61200018
-1.1
-1.8
John HensonJ. Henson00001212
-2.0
+2.1
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss000448
-2.1
0.0
Brandon KnightB. Knight11000011
-0.9
-1.7
Ante ZizicA. Zizic000033
-2.1
+0.6
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas105006
-1.2
-2.1
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame004004
-1.4
-0.2
Channing FryeC. Frye000000
-0.8
-0.4
Deng AdelD. Adel000000
-1.4
-0.2
J.R. SmithJ. Smith000000
-1.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.9
-5.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1290
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kevin LoveK. Love000141630+2
+1.3
+0.6
Collin SextonC. Sexton32000032+2
-1.3
-4.1
Tristan ThompsonT. Thompson000151328+1
-1.2
-0.1
Cedi OsmanC. Osman00320032+3
-0.6
-2.6
Jordan ClarksonJ. Clarkson12800029+3
+0.9
-3.3
Larry NanceL. Nance000161026+8
0.0
+1.8
David NwabaD. Nwaba012100022+2
-1.0
+0.1
Matthew DellavedovaM. Dellavedova12600018SAME
-1.1
-1.8
John HensonJ. Henson0003710-2
-2.0
+2.1
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss000022-6
-2.1
0.0
Brandon KnightB. Knight320005-6
-0.9
-1.7
Ante ZizicA. Zizic000000-3
-2.1
+0.6
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas005005-1
-1.2
-2.1
Jaron BlossomgameJ. Blossomgame001001-3
-1.4
-0.2
Channing FryeC. Frye000000SAME
-0.8
-0.4
Deng AdelD. Adel000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
J.R. SmithJ. Smith000000SAME
-1.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.2
-5.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
22
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1305
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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