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UPDATED May 21, 2019, at 10:43 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Boston Celtics have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving271000037SAME
+4.2
-0.2
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00312033SAME
+0.1
+1.2
Al Horford*A. Horford*00003434SAME
+1.3
+2.4
Marcus SmartM. Smart91900028SAME
+0.6
+1.1
Gordon Hayward*G. Hayward*03325031SAME
+1.1
-0.2
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00721028SAME
-0.1
-0.8
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown01670023SAME
-0.6
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001414SAME
-2.6
+2.1
Terry RozierT. Rozier12000012SAME
-0.2
-0.1
Daniel TheisD. Theis000000SAME
-0.5
+1.7
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye000000SAME
-2.6
-0.5
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele000000SAME
-1.2
+0.1
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000000SAME
-2.1
+2.2
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker000000SAME
-1.1
0.0
PJ DozierP. Dozier000000SAME
-1.5
-0.2
R.J. HunterR. Hunter000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Jonathan GibsonJ. Gibson000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.2
+3.1
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+3.9
+2.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1675
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving271000037
+4.2
-0.2
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00312033
+0.1
+1.2
Al Horford*A. Horford*00003434
+1.3
+2.4
Marcus SmartM. Smart91900028
+0.6
+1.1
Gordon Hayward*G. Hayward*03325031
+1.1
-0.2
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00721028
-0.1
-0.8
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown01670023
-0.6
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001414
-2.6
+2.1
Terry RozierT. Rozier12000012
-0.2
-0.1
Daniel TheisD. Theis000000
-0.5
+1.7
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye000000
-2.6
-0.5
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele000000
-1.2
+0.1
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000000
-2.1
+2.2
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker000000
-1.1
0.0
PJ DozierP. Dozier000000
-1.5
-0.2
R.J. HunterR. Hunter000000
-1.2
-0.3
Jonathan GibsonJ. Gibson000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.2
+3.1
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+3.9
+2.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1675
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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