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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 10:36 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Boston Celtics have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving30300033SAME
+4.6
-0.3
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00302032SAME
+0.1
+1.0
Al HorfordA. Horford00082129SAME
+1.0
+2.1
Marcus SmartM. Smart02800028+2
+0.8
+1.3
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00321024+2
-0.1
-0.9
Gordon HaywardG. Hayward000000-21
+1.2
-0.5
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown01192022+2
-0.6
+0.3
Terry RozierT. Rozier15500020+2
+0.1
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001515+1
-2.6
+2.0
Daniel TheisD. Theis0003912+2
-0.2
+1.9
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye0046010+3
-2.7
-0.4
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele002608+3
-1.1
+0.4
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000033+2
-1.9
+2.3
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker300003+1
-1.3
-0.4
PJ DozierP. Dozier010001+1
-1.5
-0.9
R.J. HunterR. Hunter000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.2
+3.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
55
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1645
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving30300033
+4.6
-0.3
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00320032
+0.1
+1.0
Al HorfordA. Horford00032629
+1.0
+2.1
Marcus SmartM. Smart22400026
+0.8
+1.3
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00418022
-0.1
-0.9
Gordon HaywardG. Hayward04116021
+1.2
-0.5
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown01370020
-0.6
+0.3
Terry RozierT. Rozier14400018
+0.1
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001414
-2.6
+2.0
Daniel TheisD. Theis0003710
-0.2
+1.9
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye002507
-2.7
-0.4
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele002305
-1.1
+0.4
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000011
-1.9
+2.3
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker200002
-1.3
-0.4
PJ DozierP. Dozier000000
-1.5
-0.9
R.J. HunterR. Hunter000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.1
+2.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1657
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving271000037+4
+4.6
-0.3
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00312033+1
+0.1
+1.0
Al HorfordA. Horford00003131+2
+1.0
+2.1
Marcus SmartM. Smart52300028+2
+0.8
+1.3
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00424028+6
-0.1
-0.9
Gordon HaywardG. Hayward04121026+5
+1.2
-0.5
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown011121024+4
-0.6
+0.3
Terry RozierT. Rozier16000016-2
+0.1
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001212-2
-2.6
+2.0
Daniel TheisD. Theis000055-5
-0.2
+1.9
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye000000-7
-2.7
-0.4
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele000000-5
-1.1
+0.4
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000000-1
-1.9
+2.3
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker000000-2
-1.3
-0.4
PJ DozierP. Dozier000000SAME
-1.5
-0.9
R.J. HunterR. Hunter000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.4
+2.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1680
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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