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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Boston Celtics have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving000000-33
+4.6
-0.4
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00293032SAME
+0.5
+1.1
Al HorfordA. Horford00012829SAME
+0.4
+2.2
Gordon HaywardG. Hayward02081029+4
+1.2
-0.1
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown02811030+8
-0.6
+0.3
Marcus SmartM. Smart000000-22
+0.5
+1.5
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00620026+6
+0.5
-0.6
Terry RozierT. Rozier26000026+8
+0.3
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes000000-14
-2.7
+1.8
Daniel TheisD. Theis00041216+6
-0.5
+1.6
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye00310013+6
-2.7
-0.4
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele001809+4
-1.1
+0.6
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000088+6
-1.9
+2.6
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker11000011+10
-1.3
-0.6
Jabari BirdJ. Bird000000SAME
-1.0
-0.7
PJ DozierP. Dozier11000011+11
-1.5
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.7
+2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1551
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving31200033
+4.6
-0.4
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00275032
+0.5
+1.1
Al HorfordA. Horford00052429
+0.4
+2.2
Gordon HaywardG. Hayward01195025
+1.2
-0.1
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown01174022
-0.6
+0.3
Marcus SmartM. Smart22000022
+0.5
+1.5
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00218020
+0.5
-0.6
Terry RozierT. Rozier14400018
+0.3
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001414
-2.7
+1.8
Daniel TheisD. Theis0002810
-0.5
+1.6
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye001607
-2.7
-0.4
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele002305
-1.1
+0.6
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000022
-1.9
+2.6
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker100001
-1.3
-0.6
Jabari BirdJ. Bird000000
-1.0
-0.7
PJ DozierP. Dozier000000
-1.5
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.1
+3.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1667
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kyrie IrvingK. Irving27800035+2
+4.6
-0.4
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum00269035+3
+0.5
+1.1
Al HorfordA. Horford00003131+2
+0.4
+2.2
Gordon HaywardG. Hayward01575027+2
+1.2
-0.1
Jaylen BrownJ. Brown061210028+6
-0.6
+0.3
Marcus SmartM. Smart71830028+6
+0.5
+1.5
Marcus MorrisM. Morris00024024+4
+0.5
-0.6
Terry RozierT. Rozier14100015-3
+0.3
0.0
Aron BaynesA. Baynes00001212-2
-2.7
+1.8
Daniel TheisD. Theis000055-5
-0.5
+1.6
Semi OjeleyeS. Ojeleye000000-7
-2.7
-0.4
Guerschon YabuseleG. Yabusele000000-5
-1.1
+0.6
Robert WilliamsR. Williams000000-2
-1.9
+2.6
Brad WanamakerB. Wanamaker000000-1
-1.3
-0.6
Jabari BirdJ. Bird000000SAME
-1.0
-0.7
PJ DozierP. Dozier000000SAME
-1.5
-0.9
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.2
+3.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
59
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1693
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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