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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Los Angeles Clippers have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Danilo GallinariD. Gallinari00283031SAME
+2.4
-0.5
Garrett Temple*G. Temple*02570032SAME
-1.8
+0.5
Patrick BeverleyP. Beverley19900028+3
+1.0
+0.9
Montrezl HarrellM. Harrell00042226SAME
+1.1
+0.6
Lou WilliamsL. Williams16400020+2
+3.4
-3.0
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander10900019+2
-0.9
-0.5
Wilson ChandlerW. Chandler00124025+3
-1.1
-0.1
Landry ShametL. Shamet000000-13
+1.3
-1.8
Ivica ZubacI. Zubac00001818SAME
-1.9
+1.5
JaMychal GreenJ. Green00413017+4
-1.8
-0.5
Luc Mbah a MouteL. Mbah a Moute000000-10
-1.9
+1.3
Tyrone WallaceT. Wallace310004+3
-2.6
-0.3
Sindarius ThornwellS. Thornwell008008+2
-2.5
+0.5
Jerome RobinsonJ. Robinson000000SAME
-1.6
-1.4
Johnathan MotleyJ. Motley000404+3
-1.7
-0.3
Angel DelgadoA. Delgado000088+1
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.4
-0.2
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.6
-0.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1480
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Danilo GallinariD. Gallinari00283031
+2.4
-0.5
Garrett Temple*G. Temple*022100032
-1.8
+0.5
Patrick BeverleyP. Beverley19600025
+1.0
+0.9
Montrezl HarrellM. Harrell00032326
+1.1
+0.6
Lou WilliamsL. Williams11700018
+3.4
-3.0
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander10700017
-0.9
-0.5
Wilson ChandlerW. Chandler00319022
-1.1
-0.1
Landry ShametL. Shamet8500013
+1.3
-1.8
Ivica ZubacI. Zubac00001818
-1.9
+1.5
JaMychal GreenJ. Green00112013
-1.8
-0.5
Luc Mbah a MouteL. Mbah a Moute00010010
-1.9
+1.3
Tyrone WallaceT. Wallace010001
-2.6
-0.3
Sindarius ThornwellS. Thornwell006006
-2.5
+0.5
Jerome RobinsonJ. Robinson000000
-1.6
-1.4
Johnathan MotleyJ. Motley000101
-1.7
-0.3
Angel DelgadoA. Delgado000077
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
0.0
-0.2
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-0.2
-0.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1490
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Danilo GallinariD. Gallinari00249033+2
+2.4
-0.5
Garrett Temple*G. Temple*02930032SAME
-1.8
+0.5
Patrick BeverleyP. Beverley22600028+3
+1.0
+0.9
Montrezl HarrellM. Harrell00032528+2
+1.1
+0.6
Lou WilliamsL. Williams16300019+1
+3.4
-3.0
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander8800016-1
-0.9
-0.5
Wilson ChandlerW. Chandler00819027+5
-1.1
-0.1
Landry ShametL. Shamet220004-9
+1.3
-1.8
Ivica ZubacI. Zubac00002020+2
-1.9
+1.5
JaMychal GreenJ. Green00115016+3
-1.8
-0.5
Luc Mbah a MouteL. Mbah a Moute00102012+2
-1.9
+1.3
Tyrone WallaceT. Wallace000000-1
-2.6
-0.3
Sindarius ThornwellS. Thornwell002002-4
-2.5
+0.5
Jerome RobinsonJ. Robinson000000SAME
-1.6
-1.4
Johnathan MotleyJ. Motley000000-1
-1.7
-0.3
Angel DelgadoA. Delgado000033-4
-2.2
-0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.2
+0.2
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
0.0
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1504
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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