shoe gif

UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

shoe gif

The Atlanta Hawks have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Trae YoungT. Young31000031+2
-0.4
-3.4
Taurean Waller-PrinceT. Waller-Prince00123015-13
-0.8
-0.6
John CollinsJ. Collins000000-30
+0.4
0.0
Kent BazemoreK. Bazemore000000-26
-0.9
+0.6
Dewayne DedmonD. Dedmon000000-24
-1.9
+2.0
Alex Len*A. Len*00004848+27
-1.9
+1.0
Kevin HuerterK. Huerter02500025+5
-1.6
-0.3
DeAndre' BembryD. Bembry04210025+7
-2.7
+0.2
Omari SpellmanO. Spellman00019019+4
-1.9
-0.3
Vince CarterV. Carter02710019+9
-1.3
-0.7
Jeremy LinJ. Lin000000-9
+0.3
-1.5
Justin AndersonJ. Anderson0680014+9
-1.3
-0.6
Alex PoythressA. Poythress00016016+13
-1.7
-0.4
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey8500013+11
-1.0
-2.0
Miles PlumleeM. Plumlee000000SAME
-3.1
+0.6
Jaylen AdamsJ. Adams900009+9
-1.1
-1.4
Daniel HamiltonD. Hamilton060006+6
-1.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-7.5
-3.0
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-9.2
-4.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
11
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1142
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Trae YoungT. Young29000029
-0.4
-3.4
Taurean Waller-PrinceT. Waller-Prince00280028
-0.8
-0.6
John CollinsJ. Collins00027330
+0.4
0.0
Kent BazemoreK. Bazemore81530026
-0.9
+0.6
Dewayne DedmonD. Dedmon00002424
-1.9
+2.0
Alex LenA. Len00002121
-1.9
+1.0
Kevin HuerterK. Huerter02000020
-1.6
-0.3
DeAndre' BembryD. Bembry05130018
-2.7
+0.2
Omari SpellmanO. Spellman00015015
-1.9
-0.3
Vince CarterV. Carter0523010
-1.3
-0.7
Jeremy LinJ. Lin900009
+0.3
-1.5
Justin AndersonJ. Anderson032005
-1.3
-0.6
Alex PoythressA. Poythress000303
-1.7
-0.4
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey200002
-1.0
-2.0
Miles PlumleeM. Plumlee000000
-3.1
+0.6
Jaylen AdamsJ. Adams000000
-1.1
-1.4
Daniel HamiltonD. Hamilton000000
-1.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-5.5
-1.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
24
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1327
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Trae YoungT. Young31000031+2
-0.4
-3.4
Taurean Waller-PrinceT. Waller-Prince00273030+2
-0.8
-0.6
John CollinsJ. Collins00030232+2
+0.4
0.0
Kent BazemoreK. Bazemore32240029+3
-0.9
+0.6
Dewayne DedmonD. Dedmon00002525+1
-1.9
+2.0
Alex LenA. Len00002121SAME
-1.9
+1.0
Kevin HuerterK. Huerter02500025+5
-1.6
-0.3
DeAndre' BembryD. Bembry01170018SAME
-2.7
+0.2
Omari SpellmanO. Spellman00011011-4
-1.9
-0.3
Vince CarterV. Carter000404-6
-1.3
-0.7
Jeremy LinJ. Lin14000014+5
+0.3
-1.5
Justin AndersonJ. Anderson000000-5
-1.3
-0.6
Alex PoythressA. Poythress000000-3
-1.7
-0.4
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey000000-2
-1.0
-2.0
Miles PlumleeM. Plumlee000000SAME
-3.1
+0.6
Jaylen AdamsJ. Adams000000SAME
-1.1
-1.4
Daniel HamiltonD. Hamilton000000SAME
-1.1
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-5.2
-1.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
24
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1336
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments