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UPDATED Jun. 13, 2019, at 11:52 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Atlanta Hawks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Trae YoungT. Young33000033SAME
+1.7
-4.1
John Collins*J. Collins*000222547+15
+1.0
-0.8
Taurean Waller-PrinceT. Waller-Prince00265031+1
-0.5
-1.2
Kevin HuerterK. Huerter02700027SAME
-0.4
-0.7
Dewayne DedmonD. Dedmon000000-26
-1.0
+2.0
Kent BazemoreK. Bazemore111150027SAME
-1.6
+0.2
DeAndre' BembryD. Bembry08150023SAME
-2.2
+0.2
Omari SpellmanO. Spellman00018018SAME
-1.8
-1.0
Alex LenA. Len00002323+7
-1.0
+0.7
Vince CarterV. Carter012306+1
-1.0
-0.5
Justin AndersonJ. Anderson010001+1
-1.4
-0.6
Alex PoythressA. Poythress000000SAME
-1.8
-0.5
Miles PlumleeM. Plumlee000000SAME
-3.2
+0.7
Jaylen AdamsJ. Adams400004+1
-1.6
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.8
-4.8
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-2.2
-5.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
23
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1319
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Trae YoungT. Young33000033
+1.7
-4.1
John CollinsJ. Collins00026632
+1.0
-0.8
Taurean Waller-PrinceT. Waller-Prince00282030
-0.5
-1.2
Kevin HuerterK. Huerter02700027
-0.4
-0.7
Dewayne DedmonD. Dedmon00002626
-1.0
+2.0
Kent BazemoreK. Bazemore121140027
-1.6
+0.2
DeAndre' BembryD. Bembry09140023
-2.2
+0.2
Omari SpellmanO. Spellman00018018
-1.8
-1.0
Alex LenA. Len00001616
-1.0
+0.7
Vince CarterV. Carter012205
-1.0
-0.5
Justin AndersonJ. Anderson000000
-1.4
-0.6
Alex PoythressA. Poythress000000
-1.8
-0.5
Miles PlumleeM. Plumlee000000
-3.2
+0.7
Jaylen AdamsJ. Adams300003
-1.6
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.4
-3.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
26
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1356
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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