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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Miami Heat have a 54% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Josh RichardsonJ. Richardson08270035SAME
+0.9
+0.4
Goran Dragic*G. Dragic*31000031+4
+0.9
-1.3
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow000000-30
-0.6
+1.2
Hassan WhitesideH. Whiteside00002525SAME
-2.1
+3.2
Rodney McGruderR. McGruder000000-22
-1.3
-0.6
Dwyane WadeD. Wade171000027+5
-1.0
-1.3
Dion WaitersD. Waiters02600026+6
-0.7
-1.0
Ryan AndersonR. Anderson00018018+1
-0.4
-0.9
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00912021+6
-1.3
+1.0
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00051015+5
+1.0
+1.1
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo00001212+5
-1.0
+2.3
Derrick JonesD. Jones0481013+7
-1.1
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson004408+5
-2.1
-0.6
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000516+5
-2.8
-0.2
Yante MatenY. Maten000303+3
-2.6
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.6
+0.8
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-2.7
+0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
35
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1452
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Josh RichardsonJ. Richardson03320035
+0.9
+0.4
Goran DragicG. Dragic27000027
+0.9
-1.3
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow40224030
-0.6
+1.2
Hassan WhitesideH. Whiteside00002525
-2.1
+3.2
Rodney McGruderR. McGruder02110022
-1.3
-0.6
Dwyane WadeD. Wade17500022
-1.0
-1.3
Dion WaitersD. Waiters01910020
-0.7
-1.0
Ryan AndersonR. Anderson00011617
-0.4
-0.9
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00312015
-1.3
+1.0
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00001010
+1.0
+1.1
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo000077
-1.0
+2.3
Derrick JonesD. Jones006006
-1.1
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson003003
-2.1
-0.6
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000101
-2.8
-0.2
Yante MatenY. Maten000000
-2.6
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.5
+1.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1472
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Josh RichardsonJ. Richardson018210039+4
+0.9
+0.4
Goran DragicG. Dragic29000029+2
+0.9
-1.3
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow10031032+2
-0.6
+1.2
Hassan WhitesideH. Whiteside00002626+1
-2.1
+3.2
Rodney McGruderR. McGruder01680024+2
-1.3
-0.6
Dwyane WadeD. Wade18160025+3
-1.0
-1.3
Dion WaitersD. Waiters013130026+6
-0.7
-1.0
Ryan AndersonR. Anderson00051318+1
-0.4
-0.9
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00012012-3
-1.3
+1.0
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk000077-3
+1.0
+1.1
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo000022-5
-1.0
+2.3
Derrick JonesD. Jones000000-6
-1.1
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson000000-3
-2.1
-0.6
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000000-1
-2.8
-0.2
Yante MatenY. Maten000000SAME
-2.6
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.2
+0.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1467
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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