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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Miami Heat have a 62% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Josh RichardsonJ. Richardson02320034SAME
+0.7
+0.2
Goran DragicG. Dragic29000029SAME
+0.8
-1.2
Hassan WhitesideH. Whiteside000000-27
-2.6
+3.1
Rodney McGruderR. McGruder01650021SAME
-0.7
-0.8
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow00025025+1
-1.0
+1.1
Dwyane WadeD. Wade41030017SAME
-1.1
-1.2
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson15200017SAME
-0.1
-0.3
Dion WaitersD. Waiters01040014SAME
-0.5
-1.0
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington0840012SAME
+0.4
-1.4
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00013013+1
-0.8
+0.9
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00002121+9
+1.0
+1.0
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo00001919+9
-0.9
+2.1
Derrick JonesD. Jones000606+1
-1.1
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson000404+1
-2.0
-0.5
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000088+5
-2.7
-0.2
Yante MatenY. Maten000000SAME
-2.6
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.2
-0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1471
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Josh RichardsonJ. Richardson02320034
+0.7
+0.2
Goran DragicG. Dragic29000029
+0.8
-1.2
Hassan WhitesideH. Whiteside00002727
-2.6
+3.1
Rodney McGruderR. McGruder01650021
-0.7
-0.8
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow00024024
-1.0
+1.1
Dwyane WadeD. Wade41030017
-1.1
-1.2
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson15200017
-0.1
-0.3
Dion WaitersD. Waiters01040014
-0.5
-1.0
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington0840012
+0.4
-1.4
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00012012
-0.8
+0.9
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk0004812
+1.0
+1.0
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo00001010
-0.9
+2.1
Derrick JonesD. Jones000505
-1.1
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson000303
-2.0
-0.5
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000033
-2.7
-0.2
Yante MatenY. Maten000000
-2.6
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.3
+1.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1472
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Josh RichardsonJ. Richardson016200036+2
+0.7
+0.2
Goran DragicG. Dragic29000029SAME
+0.8
-1.2
Hassan WhitesideH. Whiteside00002929+2
-2.6
+3.1
Rodney McGruderR. McGruder016110027+6
-0.7
-0.8
Justise WinslowJ. Winslow00031031+7
-1.0
+1.1
Dwyane WadeD. Wade55120022+5
-1.1
-1.2
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson14300017SAME
-0.1
-0.3
Dion WaitersD. Waiters0640010-4
-0.5
-1.0
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington021003-9
+0.4
-1.4
James JohnsonJ. Johnson00016016+4
-0.8
+0.9
Kelly OlynykK. Olynyk00001212SAME
+1.0
+1.0
Bam AdebayoB. Adebayo000077-3
-0.9
+2.1
Derrick JonesD. Jones000101-4
-1.1
0.0
Duncan RobinsonD. Robinson000000-3
-2.0
-0.5
Udonis HaslemU. Haslem000000-3
-2.7
-0.2
Yante MatenY. Maten000000SAME
-2.6
-0.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.4
+1.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1481
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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