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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Sacramento Kings have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox32000032SAME
+0.6
0.0
Buddy HieldB. Hield013190032SAME
+1.7
-1.4
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes00627033+2
-0.3
-0.6
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein00022527+2
-1.0
+2.2
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III00032124+2
-0.9
-1.2
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica00616022+1
+0.2
+1.4
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic01090019SAME
+0.4
-1.0
Alec BurksA. Burks01700017SAME
-1.3
-1.5
Frank MasonF. Mason14000014SAME
-0.8
-2.0
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell2800010SAME
-0.1
-1.1
Harry GilesH. Giles000000-8
-2.3
+0.3
Troy WilliamsT. Williams005005SAME
-1.8
0.0
Corey BrewerC. Brewer003003SAME
-2.2
+0.7
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000022+1
-2.6
+1.4
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000000SAME
-1.9
-0.3
Wenyen GabrielW. Gabriel000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.6
-1.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
35
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1447
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox32000032
+0.6
0.0
Buddy HieldB. Hield013190032
+1.7
-1.4
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes00625031
-0.3
-0.6
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein00032225
-1.0
+2.2
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III00041822
-0.9
-1.2
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica00615021
+0.2
+1.4
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic01090019
+0.4
-1.0
Alec BurksA. Burks01700017
-1.3
-1.5
Frank MasonF. Mason14000014
-0.8
-2.0
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell2800010
-0.1
-1.1
Harry GilesH. Giles000178
-2.3
+0.3
Troy WilliamsT. Williams005005
-1.8
0.0
Corey BrewerC. Brewer003003
-2.2
+0.7
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000011
-2.6
+1.4
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000000
-1.9
-0.3
Wenyen GabrielW. Gabriel000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.8
-1.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
34
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1440
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox34000034+2
+0.6
0.0
Buddy HieldB. Hield02760033+1
+1.7
-1.4
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes001621037+6
-0.3
-0.6
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein00072330+5
-1.0
+2.2
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III00072128+6
-0.9
-1.2
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica001411025+4
+0.2
+1.4
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic012120024+5
+0.4
-1.0
Alec BurksA. Burks7800015-2
-1.3
-1.5
Frank MasonF. Mason700007-7
-0.8
-2.0
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell010001-9
-0.1
-1.1
Harry GilesH. Giles000246-2
-2.3
+0.3
Troy WilliamsT. Williams000000-5
-1.8
0.0
Corey BrewerC. Brewer000000-3
-2.2
+0.7
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000000-1
-2.6
+1.4
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000000SAME
-1.9
-0.3
Wenyen GabrielW. Gabriel000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.3
-1.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1465
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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