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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Sacramento Kings have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox34000034SAME
+0.7
-0.2
Buddy HieldB. Hield02770034SAME
+1.9
-1.6
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes001620036SAME
-0.3
-0.8
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein00042630SAME
-0.9
+2.2
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III000101828SAME
-1.2
-1.8
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica001312025SAME
+0.2
+1.0
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic012120024SAME
+0.6
-1.1
Alec BurksA. Burks7800015SAME
-1.3
-1.4
Frank MasonF. Mason700007SAME
-0.9
-2.1
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell010001SAME
0.0
-1.2
Harry GilesH. Giles000246SAME
-2.3
+0.4
Troy WilliamsT. Williams000000SAME
-1.9
-0.1
Corey BrewerC. Brewer000000SAME
-2.1
+0.8
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000000SAME
-2.7
+1.3
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000000SAME
-1.9
0.0
Wenyen GabrielW. Gabriel000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.1
-2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
35
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1445
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox34000034
+0.7
-0.2
Buddy HieldB. Hield02770034
+1.9
-1.6
Harrison BarnesH. Barnes001620036
-0.3
-0.8
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein00042630
-0.9
+2.2
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III000101828
-1.2
-1.8
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica001312025
+0.2
+1.0
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic012120024
+0.6
-1.1
Alec BurksA. Burks7800015
-1.3
-1.4
Frank MasonF. Mason700007
-0.9
-2.1
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell010001
0.0
-1.2
Harry GilesH. Giles000246
-2.3
+0.4
Troy WilliamsT. Williams000000
-1.9
-0.1
Corey BrewerC. Brewer000000
-2.1
+0.8
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000000
-2.7
+1.3
Caleb SwaniganC. Swanigan000000
-1.9
0.0
Wenyen GabrielW. Gabriel000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.1
-2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
35
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1445
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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