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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Sacramento Kings have a 5% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox31000031SAME
+0.9
-0.8
Buddy HieldB. Hield02470031SAME
+1.5
-1.8
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein000101929SAME
-1.0
+1.5
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica00420024SAME
+0.3
+1.1
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert010110021SAME
-0.4
-0.3
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III00061723SAME
-1.2
-1.2
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic09100019SAME
+0.8
-1.5
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00109019SAME
-0.6
-0.9
Frank MasonF. Mason13000013SAME
-0.6
-2.0
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell450009SAME
+0.1
-1.1
Troy WilliamsT. Williams006006SAME
-1.6
-0.1
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000077SAME
-2.4
+1.5
Harry GilesH. Giles000055SAME
-2.1
+0.6
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000303SAME
-1.8
0.0
Ben McLemoreB. McLemore000000SAME
-1.5
-1.4
Zach RandolphZ. Randolph000000SAME
-1.5
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.6
-2.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
33
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1430
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox31000031
+0.9
-0.8
Buddy HieldB. Hield02470031
+1.5
-1.8
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein000101929
-1.0
+1.5
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica00420024
+0.3
+1.1
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert010110021
-0.4
-0.3
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III00061723
-1.2
-1.2
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic09100019
+0.8
-1.5
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00109019
-0.6
-0.9
Frank MasonF. Mason13000013
-0.6
-2.0
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell450009
+0.1
-1.1
Troy WilliamsT. Williams006006
-1.6
-0.1
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000077
-2.4
+1.5
Harry GilesH. Giles000055
-2.1
+0.6
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000303
-1.8
0.0
Ben McLemoreB. McLemore000000
-1.5
-1.4
Zach RandolphZ. Randolph000000
-1.5
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.6
-2.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
33
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1430
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
De'Aaron FoxD. Fox34000034+3
+0.9
-0.8
Buddy HieldB. Hield02490033+2
+1.5
-1.8
Willie Cauley-SteinW. Cauley-Stein00082331+2
-1.0
+1.5
Nemanja BjelicaN. Bjelica00620026+2
+0.3
+1.1
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert61090025+4
-0.4
-0.3
Marvin Bagley IIIM. Bagley III00081826+3
-1.2
-1.2
Bogdan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic011150026+7
+0.8
-1.5
Justin JacksonJ. Jackson00912021+2
-0.6
-0.9
Frank MasonF. Mason800008-5
-0.6
-2.0
Yogi FerrellY. Ferrell030003-6
+0.1
-1.1
Troy WilliamsT. Williams000000-6
-1.6
-0.1
Kosta KoufosK. Koufos000066-1
-2.4
+1.5
Harry GilesH. Giles000011-4
-2.1
+0.6
Skal LabissiereS. Labissiere000000-3
-1.8
0.0
Ben McLemoreB. McLemore000000SAME
-1.5
-1.4
Zach RandolphZ. Randolph000000SAME
-1.5
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
-2.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
35
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1445
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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