shoe gif

UPDATED May 21, 2019, at 10:43 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

shoe gif

The New York Knicks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Dennis SmithD. Smith21800029SAME
-1.0
-0.7
Kevin KnoxK. Knox001418032SAME
-3.0
-3.7
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00003030SAME
-0.8
+2.8
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh00021425SAME
-1.6
+1.4
Emmanuel Mudiay*E. Mudiay*27300030+4
-0.5
-2.2
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson01790026SAME
-0.8
-1.6
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja00211022SAME
-2.0
-0.5
Allonzo TrierA. Trier01900019+4
-1.9
-2.2
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina000000-11
-2.9
-0.9
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson00001212SAME
-0.9
+2.3
Luke KornetL. Kornet0008210+1
-0.8
+1.5
Kadeem AllenK. Allen010001+1
-1.2
-0.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas004004+1
-3.3
-0.3
Isaiah HicksI. Hicks000000SAME
-2.1
+0.1
John JenkinsJ. Jenkins000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-7.0
-2.9
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-7.1
-2.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
17
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1246
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Dennis SmithD. Smith21800029
-1.0
-0.7
Kevin KnoxK. Knox001418032
-3.0
-3.7
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00003030
-0.8
+2.8
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh00021425
-1.6
+1.4
Emmanuel MudiayE. Mudiay21500026
-0.5
-2.2
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson015110026
-0.8
-1.6
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja00202022
-2.0
-0.5
Allonzo TrierA. Trier01500015
-1.9
-2.2
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina6500011
-2.9
-0.9
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson00001212
-0.9
+2.3
Luke KornetL. Kornet000729
-0.8
+1.5
Kadeem AllenK. Allen000000
-1.2
-0.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas003003
-3.3
-0.3
Isaiah HicksI. Hicks000000
-2.1
+0.1
John JenkinsJ. Jenkins000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-7.4
-2.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
17
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1242
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments