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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 10:36 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The New York Knicks have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Dennis SmithD. Smith000000-30
-0.8
-0.9
Kevin KnoxK. Knox00626032SAME
-3.1
-3.5
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00003030+3
-1.1
+3.0
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh000000-23
-1.5
+1.3
Emmanuel MudiayE. Mudiay26000026+7
-0.5
-1.9
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson02130024+5
-0.4
-1.4
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja00210021+2
-2.1
-0.2
Allonzo TrierA. Trier02200022+6
-2.0
-2.4
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina17000017+3
-2.7
-0.9
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson00001717+5
-1.1
+2.4
Luke KornetL. Kornet00014115+5
-1.0
+1.3
Kadeem AllenK. Allen5500010+3
-1.2
-0.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas00110011+5
-3.0
-0.2
Isaiah HicksI. Hicks000808+4
-2.1
-0.4
John JenkinsJ. Jenkins007007+5
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-8.2
-2.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
16
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1220
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Dennis SmithD. Smith25500030
-0.8
-0.9
Kevin KnoxK. Knox001220032
-3.1
-3.5
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00002727
-1.1
+3.0
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh00023023
-1.5
+1.3
Emmanuel MudiayE. Mudiay13600019
-0.5
-1.9
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson01090019
-0.4
-1.4
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja00190019
-2.1
-0.2
Allonzo TrierA. Trier01600016
-2.0
-2.4
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina9500014
-2.7
-0.9
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson00001212
-1.1
+2.4
Luke KornetL. Kornet0001910
-1.0
+1.3
Kadeem AllenK. Allen160007
-1.2
-0.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas006006
-3.0
-0.2
Isaiah HicksI. Hicks000404
-2.1
-0.4
John JenkinsJ. Jenkins002002
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-7.8
-2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
17
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1241
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Dennis SmithD. Smith22800030SAME
-0.8
-0.9
Kevin KnoxK. Knox001418032SAME
-3.1
-3.5
DeAndre JordanD. Jordan00003131+4
-1.1
+3.0
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh00021425+2
-1.5
+1.3
Emmanuel MudiayE. Mudiay22400026+7
-0.5
-1.9
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson015100025+6
-0.4
-1.4
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja00201021+2
-2.1
-0.2
Allonzo TrierA. Trier01500015-1
-2.0
-2.4
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina4600010-4
-2.7
-0.9
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson00001212SAME
-1.1
+2.4
Luke KornetL. Kornet000819-1
-1.0
+1.3
Kadeem AllenK. Allen000000-7
-1.2
-0.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas004004-2
-3.0
-0.2
Isaiah HicksI. Hicks000000-4
-2.1
-0.4
John JenkinsJ. Jenkins000000-2
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-7.4
-2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
18
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1254
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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