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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The New York Knicks have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000000-32
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.02300032+1
+1.3
-2.0
Kevin KnoxK. Knox00032032+6
-2.3
-3.4
Emmanuel MudiayE. Mudiay26000026+2
-0.1
-1.9
Noah Vonleh*N. Vonleh*000101929+10
-1.1
+1.7
Luke Kornet*L. Kornet*00002929+12
-0.5
+0.3
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson02110022+4
-0.9
-1.1
Enes KanterE. Kanter000000-16
+0.5
-0.6
Allonzo TrierA. Trier31600019+3
-2.4
-2.6
Courtney LeeC. Lee0970016+4
-0.4
-1.1
Trey BurkeT. Burke14000014+3
+0.8
-2.6
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson000000-6
-1.6
+2.1
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja0091010+4
-1.8
-0.5
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina500005SAME
-2.5
-1.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas001506+5
-2.6
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.6
-6.0
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-4.4
-6.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
16
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1220
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis00027532
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.09220031
+1.3
-2.0
Kevin KnoxK. Knox00206026
-2.3
-3.4
Emmanuel MudiayE. Mudiay24000024
-0.1
-1.9
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh00014519
-1.1
+1.7
Luke KornetL. Kornet00001717
-0.5
+0.3
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson01800018
-0.9
-1.1
Enes KanterE. Kanter00011516
+0.5
-0.6
Allonzo TrierA. Trier8800016
-2.4
-2.6
Courtney LeeC. Lee01200012
-0.4
-1.1
Trey BurkeT. Burke11000011
+0.8
-2.6
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson000066
-1.6
+2.1
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja015006
-1.8
-0.5
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina500005
-2.5
-1.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas001001
-2.6
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.7
-4.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
24
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1334
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kristaps PorzingisK. Porzingis000211233+1
0.0
+2.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.021120033+2
+1.3
-2.0
Kevin KnoxK. Knox00284032+6
-2.3
-3.4
Emmanuel Mudiay*E. Mudiay*30000030+6
-0.1
-1.9
Noah VonlehN. Vonleh00022325+6
-1.1
+1.7
Luke KornetL. Kornet00001717SAME
-0.5
+0.3
Damyean DotsonD. Dotson02120023+5
-0.9
-1.1
Enes KanterE. Kanter00011617+1
+0.5
-0.6
Allonzo TrierA. Trier12300015-1
-2.4
-2.6
Courtney LeeC. Lee036009-3
-0.4
-1.1
Trey BurkeT. Burke600006-5
+0.8
-2.6
Mitchell RobinsonM. Robinson000000-6
-1.6
+2.1
Mario HezonjaM. Hezonja000000-6
-1.8
-0.5
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina000000-5
-2.5
-1.3
Lance ThomasL. Thomas000000-1
-2.6
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.4
-4.3
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-2.5
-4.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
24
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1331
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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