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UPDATED May 21, 2019, at 10:43 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Los Angeles Lakers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James000000-40
+4.9
+1.4
Brandon IngramB. Ingram000000-37
-1.1
-0.5
Kyle Kuzma*K. Kuzma*001125743+9
+0.4
-1.0
Lonzo BallL. Ball000000-32
-0.7
+1.6
Reggie Bullock*R. Bullock*016190035+7
-0.1
-1.4
Rajon RondoR. Rondo000000-22
-1.6
-0.6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope*K. Caldwell-Pope*03000030+13
+1.1
-1.3
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00002323+4
-1.8
+1.1
Josh HartJ. Hart000000-5
-1.0
+1.0
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala00017421+15
-0.7
+1.0
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson02180020+20
-1.0
-1.3
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler00001111+11
-2.7
+2.6
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000617+7
-1.6
+0.1
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000022+2
-2.7
+0.2
Isaac BongaI. Bonga24000024+24
-2.3
+0.9
Alex Caruso*A. Caruso*24000024+24
-1.2
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.1
-0.9
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-3.9
-1.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
27
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1362
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James201118940
+4.9
+1.4
Brandon IngramB. Ingram002710037
-1.1
-0.5
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma000142034
+0.4
-1.0
Lonzo BallL. Ball27500032
-0.7
+1.6
Reggie BullockR. Bullock02350028
-0.1
-1.4
Rajon RondoR. Rondo19300022
-1.6
-0.6
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope01700017
+1.1
-1.3
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00001919
-1.8
+1.1
Josh HartJ. Hart005005
-1.0
+1.0
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala000606
-0.7
+1.0
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson000000
-1.0
-1.3
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler000000
-2.7
+2.6
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000000
-1.6
+0.1
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000000
-2.7
+0.2
Isaac BongaI. Bonga000000
-2.3
+0.9
Alex CarusoA. Caruso000000
-1.2
+0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.7
+0.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1555
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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