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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 10:36 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Los Angeles Lakers have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James000000-32
+5.0
+1.3
Brandon IngramB. Ingram000000-34
-1.1
-0.6
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma00530035+4
+0.5
-1.0
Lonzo BallL. Ball000000-26
-0.6
+1.5
Reggie BullockR. Bullock09220031+11
0.0
-1.5
Rajon RondoR. Rondo29100030+8
-1.5
-0.6
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope02700027+9
+0.8
-1.2
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00002020+3
-2.1
+1.1
Josh HartJ. Hart04210025+11
-0.9
+0.9
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala0008917+7
-0.8
+0.9
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson000000-6
-1.0
-1.4
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler00011112+6
-2.5
+2.4
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams0007310+7
-2.1
-0.3
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000257+6
-2.2
0.0
Isaac BongaI. Bonga7300010+10
-1.9
0.0
Alex CarusoA. Caruso12400016+16
-1.3
+0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.0
-0.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
28
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1379
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James00818632
+5.0
+1.3
Brandon IngramB. Ingram00304034
-1.1
-0.6
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma00024731
+0.5
-1.0
Lonzo BallL. Ball26000026
-0.6
+1.5
Reggie BullockR. Bullock01820020
0.0
-1.5
Rajon RondoR. Rondo22000022
-1.5
-0.6
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope01800018
+0.8
-1.2
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00001717
-2.1
+1.1
Josh HartJ. Hart01220014
-0.9
+0.9
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala0001910
-0.8
+0.9
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson006006
-1.0
-1.4
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler000156
-2.5
+2.4
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000033
-2.1
-0.3
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000011
-2.2
0.0
Isaac BongaI. Bonga000000
-1.9
0.0
Alex CarusoA. Caruso000000
-1.3
+0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.4
+0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1519
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James201118940+8
+5.0
+1.3
Brandon IngramB. Ingram002710037+3
-1.1
-0.6
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma000142034+3
+0.5
-1.0
Lonzo BallL. Ball27500032+6
-0.6
+1.5
Reggie BullockR. Bullock02350028+8
0.0
-1.5
Rajon RondoR. Rondo19300022SAME
-1.5
-0.6
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope01700017-1
+0.8
-1.2
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00001919+2
-2.1
+1.1
Josh HartJ. Hart005005-9
-0.9
+0.9
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala000606-4
-0.8
+0.9
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson000000-6
-1.0
-1.4
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler000000-6
-2.5
+2.4
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000000-3
-2.1
-0.3
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000000-1
-2.2
0.0
Isaac BongaI. Bonga000000SAME
-1.9
0.0
Alex CarusoA. Caruso000000SAME
-1.3
+0.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.8
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1550
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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