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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Los Angeles Lakers have a 35% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James000000-35
+5.0
+1.1
Brandon IngramB. Ingram03300033SAME
-1.5
-0.2
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma00132033+3
+0.4
-0.8
Lonzo BallL. Ball31000031+5
-0.4
+1.3
Josh HartJ. Hart02410025+4
-0.3
+0.9
Rajon RondoR. Rondo16000016-6
-1.0
-0.3
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00002121+2
-2.0
+1.9
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler00041519+2
-2.3
+2.3
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope01800018+4
+1.1
-1.0
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson03100013+4
-0.9
-1.3
Ivica ZubacI. Zubac00001111+4
-1.8
+1.7
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000718+3
-2.0
+0.1
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk006006+4
-2.0
-1.6
Michael BeasleyM. Beasley000404+4
-1.2
-0.4
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000101+1
-2.1
-0.2
Isaac BongaI. Bonga100001+1
-1.8
-0.1
Alex CarusoA. Caruso000000SAME
-1.6
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.3
+1.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
34
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1437
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James00825235
+5.0
+1.1
Brandon IngramB. Ingram013182033
-1.5
-0.2
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma001118130
+0.4
-0.8
Lonzo BallL. Ball26000026
-0.4
+1.3
Josh HartJ. Hart01920021
-0.3
+0.9
Rajon RondoR. Rondo22000022
-1.0
-0.3
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00001919
-2.0
+1.9
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler00011617
-2.3
+2.3
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope01400014
+1.1
-1.0
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson027009
-0.9
-1.3
Ivica ZubacI. Zubac000077
-1.8
+1.7
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000235
-2.0
+0.1
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk002002
-2.0
-1.6
Michael BeasleyM. Beasley000000
-1.2
-0.4
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000000
-2.1
-0.2
Isaac BongaI. Bonga000000
-1.8
-0.1
Alex CarusoA. Caruso000000
-1.6
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
+2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
47
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1566
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
LeBron JamesL. James001322439+4
+5.0
+1.1
Brandon IngramB. Ingram021140035+2
-1.5
-0.2
Kyle KuzmaK. Kuzma009171036+6
+0.4
-0.8
Lonzo BallL. Ball28300031+5
-0.4
+1.3
Josh HartJ. Hart01980027+6
-0.3
+0.9
Rajon RondoR. Rondo20200022SAME
-1.0
-0.3
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee00002121+2
-2.0
+1.9
Tyson ChandlerT. Chandler00081119+2
-2.3
+2.3
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeK. Caldwell-Pope030003-11
+1.1
-1.0
Lance StephensonL. Stephenson004004-5
-0.9
-1.3
Ivica ZubacI. Zubac000022-5
-1.8
+1.7
Johnathan WilliamsJ. Williams000101-4
-2.0
+0.1
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk000000-2
-2.0
-1.6
Michael BeasleyM. Beasley000000SAME
-1.2
-0.4
Moritz WagnerM. Wagner000000SAME
-2.1
-0.2
Isaac BongaI. Bonga000000SAME
-1.8
-0.1
Alex CarusoA. Caruso000000SAME
-1.6
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.5
+3.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
50
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1594
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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