Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 0 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 37 | SAME | +0.3 | +0.8 | |||||||
Nikola Vucevic | N. Vucevic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | SAME | +1.1 | +3.2 | |||||||
Evan Fournier | E. Fournier | 0 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 33 | SAME | +0.5 | -1.3 | |||||||
D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | SAME | +1.4 | -1.5 | |||||||
Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 26 | SAME | -1.9 | +1.5 | |||||||
Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 0 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | +1 | +0.5 | -0.7 | |||||||
Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | -4 | -2.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
Wesley Iwundu | W. Iwundu | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 15 | +1 | -2.7 | -0.1 | |||||||
Isaiah Briscoe | I. Briscoe | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | +2 | -2.7 | -0.2 | |||||||
Mohamed Bamba | M. Bamba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | SAME | -3.2 | +1.0 | |||||||
Jerian Grant | J. Grant | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | -0.6 | |||||||
Khem Birch | K. Birch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | SAME | -1.0 | +1.6 | |||||||
Jarell Martin | J. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.3 | |||||||
Amile Jefferson | A. Jefferson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | +0.4 | |||||||
Troy Caupain | T. Caupain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -1.1 | |||||||
Melvin Frazier | M. Frazier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | -0.9 | |||||||
Timofey Mozgov | T. Mozgov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -3.7 | +0.8 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -1.5 | +1.8 | |||||||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1512 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 0 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 37 | +0.3 | +0.8 | ||||
Nikola Vucevic | N. Vucevic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | +1.1 | +3.2 | ||||
Evan Fournier | E. Fournier | 0 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 33 | +0.5 | -1.3 | ||||
D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | +1.4 | -1.5 | ||||
Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 26 | -1.9 | +1.5 | ||||
Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 0 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 26 | +0.5 | -0.7 | ||||
Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | -2.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Wesley Iwundu | W. Iwundu | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -2.7 | -0.1 | ||||
Isaiah Briscoe | I. Briscoe | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -2.7 | -0.2 | ||||
Mohamed Bamba | M. Bamba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | -3.2 | +1.0 | ||||
Jerian Grant | J. Grant | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | -0.6 | ||||
Khem Birch | K. Birch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.0 | +1.6 | ||||
Jarell Martin | J. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.4 | +0.3 | ||||
Amile Jefferson | A. Jefferson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | +0.4 | ||||
Troy Caupain | T. Caupain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | -1.1 | ||||
Melvin Frazier | M. Frazier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.9 | -0.9 | ||||
Timofey Mozgov | T. Mozgov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.7 | +0.8 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -1.5 | +1.8 | |||||||||
Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||||||
CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1513 |
Comments