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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Orlando Magic have a 61% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Aaron GordonA. Gordon001222034SAME
+0.4
+0.8
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003131SAME
+1.1
+3.2
Evan FournierE. Fournier02750032+1
+0.6
-1.1
D.J. AugustinD. Augustin27000027+4
+1.5
-1.5
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac00024024+2
-2.1
+1.7
Terrence RossT. Ross01880026+5
0.0
-0.9
Markelle FultzM. Fultz000000-19
-2.0
0.0
Wesley IwunduW. Iwundu00190019+2
-2.7
-0.1
Isaiah BriscoeI. Briscoe000000-14
-2.6
-0.2
Mohamed BambaM. Bamba000000-11
-3.2
+0.9
Jerian GrantJ. Grant15200017+10
-0.6
-0.6
Khem BirchK. Birch00001010+4
-1.0
+1.2
Jarell MartinJ. Martin000077+4
-2.5
+0.3
Amile JeffersonA. Jefferson000202+1
-2.1
-0.4
Troy CaupainT. Caupain600006+6
-1.4
-1.1
Melvin FrazierM. Frazier014005+5
-1.7
-1.0
Timofey MozgovT. Mozgov000000SAME
-3.7
+0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.0
+1.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
42
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1512
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Aaron GordonA. Gordon001222034
+0.4
+0.8
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003131
+1.1
+3.2
Evan FournierE. Fournier02290031
+0.6
-1.1
D.J. AugustinD. Augustin23000023
+1.5
-1.5
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac00022022
-2.1
+1.7
Terrence RossT. Ross011100021
0.0
-0.9
Markelle FultzM. Fultz71200019
-2.0
0.0
Wesley IwunduW. Iwundu00170017
-2.7
-0.1
Isaiah BriscoeI. Briscoe14000014
-2.6
-0.2
Mohamed BambaM. Bamba00001111
-3.2
+0.9
Jerian GrantJ. Grant430007
-0.6
-0.6
Khem BirchK. Birch000066
-1.0
+1.2
Jarell MartinJ. Martin000303
-2.5
+0.3
Amile JeffersonA. Jefferson000101
-2.1
-0.4
Troy CaupainT. Caupain000000
-1.4
-1.1
Melvin FrazierM. Frazier000000
-1.7
-1.0
Timofey MozgovT. Mozgov000000
-3.7
+0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.4
+1.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1490
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Aaron GordonA. Gordon001522037+3
+0.4
+0.8
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003434+3
+1.1
+3.2
Evan FournierE. Fournier021110032+1
+0.6
-1.1
D.J. AugustinD. Augustin27000027+4
+1.5
-1.5
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac00026026+4
-2.1
+1.7
Terrence RossT. Ross01880026+5
0.0
-0.9
Markelle FultzM. Fultz14800022+3
-2.0
0.0
Wesley IwunduW. Iwundu01140015-2
-2.7
-0.1
Isaiah BriscoeI. Briscoe700007-7
-2.6
-0.2
Mohamed BambaM. Bamba00001212+1
-3.2
+0.9
Jerian GrantJ. Grant000000-7
-0.6
-0.6
Khem BirchK. Birch000022-4
-1.0
+1.2
Jarell MartinJ. Martin000000-3
-2.5
+0.3
Amile JeffersonA. Jefferson000000-1
-2.1
-0.4
Troy CaupainT. Caupain000000SAME
-1.4
-1.1
Melvin FrazierM. Frazier000000SAME
-1.7
-1.0
Timofey MozgovT. Mozgov000000SAME
-3.7
+0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.7
+2.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
42
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1513
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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