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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Orlando Magic have a 26% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Aaron GordonA. Gordon00033033SAME
+0.5
+0.6
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003131SAME
+0.8
+2.8
Evan FournierE. Fournier02180029SAME
+0.6
-1.3
D.J. AugustinD. Augustin26000026SAME
+1.3
-1.8
Wesley IwunduW. Iwundu00190019SAME
-2.7
-0.1
Terrence RossT. Ross01280020SAME
-0.4
-1.1
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac001211023+3
-2.9
+1.3
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons01510016SAME
-2.4
-1.0
Jerian GrantJ. Grant16000016SAME
-0.5
-0.8
Mohamed BambaM. Bamba000000-11
-2.8
+0.6
Jarell MartinJ. Martin00021012+4
-2.7
+0.3
Isaiah BriscoeI. Briscoe600006SAME
-1.9
-1.5
Khem BirchK. Birch000077+3
-1.5
+1.0
Timofey MozgovT. Mozgov000000-1
-3.7
+0.8
Amile JeffersonA. Jefferson000202+2
-2.0
-0.6
Troy CaupainT. Caupain000000SAME
-1.5
-1.1
Melvin FrazierM. Frazier000000SAME
-1.7
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.9
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
33
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1431
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Aaron GordonA. Gordon00033033
+0.5
+0.6
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003131
+0.8
+2.8
Evan FournierE. Fournier02180029
+0.6
-1.3
D.J. AugustinD. Augustin26000026
+1.3
-1.8
Wesley IwunduW. Iwundu00190019
-2.7
-0.1
Terrence RossT. Ross01280020
-0.4
-1.1
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac00128020
-2.9
+1.3
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons01510016
-2.4
-1.0
Jerian GrantJ. Grant16000016
-0.5
-0.8
Mohamed BambaM. Bamba00001111
-2.8
+0.6
Jarell MartinJ. Martin000628
-2.7
+0.3
Isaiah BriscoeI. Briscoe600006
-1.9
-1.5
Khem BirchK. Birch000134
-1.5
+1.0
Timofey MozgovT. Mozgov000011
-3.7
+0.8
Amile JeffersonA. Jefferson000000
-2.0
-0.6
Troy CaupainT. Caupain000000
-1.5
-1.1
Melvin FrazierM. Frazier000000
-1.7
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.0
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
33
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1427
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Aaron GordonA. Gordon00928037+4
+0.5
+0.6
Nikola VucevicN. Vucevic00003333+2
+0.8
+2.8
Evan FournierE. Fournier02650031+2
+0.6
-1.3
D.J. AugustinD. Augustin29000029+3
+1.3
-1.8
Wesley IwunduW. Iwundu00190019SAME
-2.7
-0.1
Terrence RossT. Ross012110023+3
-0.4
-1.1
Jonathan IsaacJ. Isaac00420024+4
-2.9
+1.3
Jonathon SimmonsJ. Simmons01000010-6
-2.4
-1.0
Jerian GrantJ. Grant18000018+2
-0.5
-0.8
Mohamed BambaM. Bamba00001010-1
-2.8
+0.6
Jarell MartinJ. Martin000055-3
-2.7
+0.3
Isaiah BriscoeI. Briscoe100001-5
-1.9
-1.5
Khem BirchK. Birch000000-4
-1.5
+1.0
Timofey MozgovT. Mozgov000000-1
-3.7
+0.8
Amile JeffersonA. Jefferson000000SAME
-2.0
-0.6
Troy CaupainT. Caupain000000SAME
-1.5
-1.1
Melvin FrazierM. Frazier000000SAME
-1.7
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.2
+0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1453
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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