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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Brooklyn Nets have a 62% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
D'Angelo Russell*D. Russell*35000035+5
+1.7
-1.2
Caris LeVertC. LeVert000000-28
0.0
-0.7
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie102100031+2
+2.3
-2.0
Jarrett AllenJ. Allen00002929+2
-0.8
+1.8
Joe HarrisJ. Harris013180031+9
+1.1
-1.3
Allen CrabbeA. Crabbe000000-21
-0.4
-1.3
Rondae Hollis-JeffersonR. Hollis-Jefferson000000-20
-1.6
+0.5
DeMarre CarrollD. Carroll00918027+9
-0.5
-0.1
Kenneth Faried*K. Faried*00018220+6
-1.1
-0.3
Jared DudleyJ. Dudley000000-11
-1.4
+0.2
Rodions KurucsR. Kurucs00138021+12
-1.4
-0.5
Ed DavisE. Davis00041721+14
-1.2
+1.9
Shabazz NapierS. Napier000000-3
+0.3
-0.9
Treveon GrahamT. Graham3580016+15
-1.5
-0.6
Dzanan MusaD. Musa000000SAME
-1.8
-0.5
Theo PinsonT. Pinson090009+9
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.5
-1.6
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+0.1
-2.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1454
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
D'Angelo RussellD. Russell30000030
+1.7
-1.2
Caris LeVertC. LeVert00280028
0.0
-0.7
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie161300029
+2.3
-2.0
Jarrett AllenJ. Allen00002727
-0.8
+1.8
Joe HarrisJ. Harris01750022
+1.1
-1.3
Allen CrabbeA. Crabbe01740021
-0.4
-1.3
Rondae Hollis-JeffersonR. Hollis-Jefferson001010020
-1.6
+0.5
DeMarre CarrollD. Carroll00018018
-0.5
-0.1
Kenneth FariedK. Faried0008614
-1.1
-0.3
Jared DudleyJ. Dudley00011011
-1.4
+0.2
Rodions KurucsR. Kurucs000189
-1.4
-0.5
Ed DavisE. Davis000077
-1.2
+1.9
Shabazz NapierS. Napier210003
+0.3
-0.9
Treveon GrahamT. Graham001001
-1.5
-0.6
Dzanan MusaD. Musa000000
-1.8
-0.5
Theo PinsonT. Pinson000000
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.4
-2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1457
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
D'Angelo RussellD. Russell32000032+2
+1.7
-1.2
Caris LeVertC. LeVert00280028SAME
0.0
-0.7
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie151600031+2
+2.3
-2.0
Jarrett AllenJ. Allen00002929+2
-0.8
+1.8
Joe HarrisJ. Harris01990028+6
+1.1
-1.3
Allen CrabbeA. Crabbe013110024+3
-0.4
-1.3
Rondae Hollis-JeffersonR. Hollis-Jefferson00024024+4
-1.6
+0.5
DeMarre CarrollD. Carroll00017017-1
-0.5
-0.1
Kenneth FariedK. Faried00041014SAME
-1.1
-0.3
Jared DudleyJ. Dudley000303-8
-1.4
+0.2
Rodions KurucsR. Kurucs000077-2
-1.4
-0.5
Ed DavisE. Davis000022-5
-1.2
+1.9
Shabazz NapierS. Napier100001-2
+0.3
-0.9
Treveon GrahamT. Graham000000-1
-1.5
-0.6
Dzanan MusaD. Musa000000SAME
-1.8
-0.5
Theo PinsonT. Pinson000000SAME
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.9
-2.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1461
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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