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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Brooklyn Nets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
D'Angelo RussellD. Russell32000032SAME
+2.2
-0.8
Caris LeVertC. LeVert00290029+2
-0.1
-0.4
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie141600030SAME
+1.6
-2.2
Jarrett AllenJ. Allen00002828SAME
-1.0
+1.9
Joe HarrisJ. Harris02460030+5
+0.9
-1.4
Treveon GrahamT. Graham18130022+2
-1.9
-0.1
DeMarre CarrollD. Carroll00026026SAME
-0.4
-0.2
Allen CrabbeA. Crabbe000000-10
-0.7
-1.0
Rondae Hollis-JeffersonR. Hollis-Jefferson00015015SAME
-2.1
+0.8
Jared DudleyJ. Dudley000707SAME
-1.2
+0.7
Rodions KurucsR. Kurucs00001515SAME
-1.7
-0.1
Shabazz NapierS. Napier100001+1
+0.5
-0.8
Ed DavisE. Davis000055SAME
-1.5
+2.8
Dzanan MusaD. Musa000000SAME
-2.0
-0.2
Theo PinsonT. Pinson000000SAME
-1.9
-0.1
Alan WilliamsA. Williams000000SAME
-1.7
+1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.2
-1.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
37
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1462
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
D'Angelo RussellD. Russell32000032
+2.2
-0.8
Caris LeVertC. LeVert00270027
-0.1
-0.4
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie141600030
+1.6
-2.2
Jarrett AllenJ. Allen00002828
-1.0
+1.9
Joe HarrisJ. Harris01870025
+0.9
-1.4
Treveon GrahamT. Graham27110020
-1.9
-0.1
DeMarre CarrollD. Carroll00026026
-0.4
-0.2
Allen CrabbeA. Crabbe0730010
-0.7
-1.0
Rondae Hollis-JeffersonR. Hollis-Jefferson00015015
-2.1
+0.8
Jared DudleyJ. Dudley000707
-1.2
+0.7
Rodions KurucsR. Kurucs00001515
-1.7
-0.1
Shabazz NapierS. Napier000000
+0.5
-0.8
Ed DavisE. Davis000055
-1.5
+2.8
Dzanan MusaD. Musa000000
-2.0
-0.2
Theo PinsonT. Pinson000000
-1.9
-0.1
Alan WilliamsA. Williams000000
-1.7
+1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.4
-1.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1457
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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