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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Indiana Pacers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo000000-33
+1.7
+1.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner00002929SAME
-1.5
+3.4
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic00310031+1
+0.6
-1.4
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00426030+5
0.0
+1.6
Darren CollisonD. Collison16000016-5
+1.4
-0.6
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews02500025+5
-0.2
-0.8
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000131124+1
+0.1
+1.2
Cory JosephC. Joseph15600021+4
-0.7
+0.6
Tyreke EvansT. Evans11620019+5
-0.1
+0.2
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner11000011+2
-1.8
-0.2
Doug McDermottD. McDermott01110012+5
-0.4
-1.6
T.J. LeafT. Leaf000808+3
-1.4
-0.2
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000088+1
-1.2
+2.1
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday500005+5
-1.2
-0.7
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000101+1
-1.4
-1.2
Davon ReedD. Reed000000SAME
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.6
+2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1523
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo23100033
+1.7
+1.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner00002929
-1.5
+3.4
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic00237030
+0.6
-1.4
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00025025
0.0
+1.6
Darren CollisonD. Collison21000021
+1.4
-0.6
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews09110020
-0.2
-0.8
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000111223
+0.1
+1.2
Cory JosephC. Joseph15200017
-0.7
+0.6
Tyreke EvansT. Evans1670014
-0.1
+0.2
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner900009
-1.8
-0.2
Doug McDermottD. McDermott007007
-0.4
-1.6
T.J. LeafT. Leaf000505
-1.4
-0.2
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000077
-1.2
+2.1
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday000000
-1.2
-0.7
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000000
-1.4
-1.2
Davon ReedD. Reed000000
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.2
+3.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
50
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1592
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo102600036+3
+1.7
+1.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner00022931+2
-1.5
+3.4
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic01303034+4
+0.6
-1.4
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00033033+8
0.0
+1.6
Darren CollisonD. Collison29000029+8
+1.4
-0.6
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews015120027+7
-0.2
-0.8
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000101727+4
+0.1
+1.2
Cory JosephC. Joseph9500014-3
-0.7
+0.6
Tyreke EvansT. Evans016007-7
-0.1
+0.2
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner000000-9
-1.8
-0.2
Doug McDermottD. McDermott000000-7
-0.4
-1.6
T.J. LeafT. Leaf000000-5
-1.4
-0.2
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000022-5
-1.2
+2.1
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday000000SAME
-1.2
-0.7
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000000SAME
-1.4
-1.2
Davon ReedD. Reed000000SAME
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.3
+3.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
53
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1625
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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