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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Indiana Pacers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo000000-36
+1.7
+1.4
Myles TurnerM. Turner00022931SAME
-1.4
+3.3
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic04291034SAME
+0.6
-1.3
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00330033SAME
0.0
+1.6
Darren CollisonD. Collison28000028SAME
+1.3
-0.7
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews02830031+4
-0.4
-0.8
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000121527SAME
+0.1
+1.2
Cory JosephC. Joseph121000022+8
-0.7
+0.7
Tyreke EvansT. Evans0690015+7
-0.3
-0.1
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner800008+8
-1.7
-0.3
Doug McDermottD. McDermott004004+4
-0.2
-1.8
T.J. LeafT. Leaf000303+3
-1.2
-0.1
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday000000SAME
-1.1
-0.8
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000044+2
-1.2
+2.1
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000000SAME
-1.4
-0.4
Davon ReedD. Reed000000SAME
-1.6
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.8
+2.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
45
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1543
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo112500036
+1.7
+1.4
Myles TurnerM. Turner00022931
-1.4
+3.3
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic01303034
+0.6
-1.3
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00033033
0.0
+1.6
Darren CollisonD. Collison28000028
+1.3
-0.7
Wesley MatthewsW. Matthews016110027
-0.4
-0.8
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000101727
+0.1
+1.2
Cory JosephC. Joseph9500014
-0.7
+0.7
Tyreke EvansT. Evans017008
-0.3
-0.1
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner000000
-1.7
-0.3
Doug McDermottD. McDermott000000
-0.2
-1.8
T.J. LeafT. Leaf000000
-1.2
-0.1
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday000000
-1.1
-0.8
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000022
-1.2
+2.1
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000000
-1.4
-0.4
Davon ReedD. Reed000000
-1.6
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.1
+3.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
53
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1621
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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