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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Indiana Pacers have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo62700033SAME
+2.1
+1.2
Myles TurnerM. Turner000000-29
-1.5
+3.0
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic03226031SAME
+0.3
-1.5
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00525030+5
-0.5
+1.5
Darren CollisonD. Collison000000-22
+1.0
-0.5
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis00002626+4
+0.2
+1.1
Cory JosephC. Joseph24100025+5
-0.5
+0.2
Tyreke EvansT. Evans31270022+5
+0.3
0.0
Doug McDermottD. McDermott05140019+4
-0.3
-1.5
T.J. LeafT. Leaf00011011+1
-1.3
-0.7
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn00001313+5
-1.0
+2.2
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday10000010+5
-0.8
-0.5
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000606+4
-1.3
-1.1
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner500005+4
-1.2
-0.9
Ike AnigboguI. Anigbogu000099+9
-2.2
0.0
Davon ReedD. Reed000000SAME
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.2
+1.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1524
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo13200033
+2.1
+1.2
Myles TurnerM. Turner00002929
-1.5
+3.0
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic07222031
+0.3
-1.5
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00223025
-0.5
+1.5
Darren CollisonD. Collison22000022
+1.0
-0.5
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000111122
+0.2
+1.1
Cory JosephC. Joseph19100020
-0.5
+0.2
Tyreke EvansT. Evans0890017
+0.3
0.0
Doug McDermottD. McDermott00150015
-0.3
-1.5
T.J. LeafT. Leaf00010010
-1.3
-0.7
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000088
-1.0
+2.2
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday500005
-0.8
-0.5
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000202
-1.3
-1.1
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner100001
-1.2
-0.9
Ike AnigboguI. Anigbogu000000
-2.2
0.0
Davon ReedD. Reed000000
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.2
+2.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
48
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1573
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo102600036+3
+2.1
+1.2
Myles TurnerM. Turner00003131+2
-1.5
+3.0
Bojan BogdanovicB. Bogdanovic00311032+1
+0.3
-1.5
Thaddeus YoungT. Young00229031+6
-0.5
+1.5
Darren CollisonD. Collison28000028+6
+1.0
-0.5
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis000131326+4
+0.2
+1.1
Cory JosephC. Joseph101300023+3
-0.5
+0.2
Tyreke EvansT. Evans0970016-1
+0.3
0.0
Doug McDermottD. McDermott008008-7
-0.3
-1.5
T.J. LeafT. Leaf000505-5
-1.3
-0.7
Kyle O'QuinnK. O'Quinn000044-4
-1.0
+2.2
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday000000-5
-0.8
-0.5
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000000-2
-1.3
-1.1
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner000000-1
-1.2
-0.9
Ike AnigboguI. Anigbogu000000SAME
-2.2
0.0
Davon ReedD. Reed000000SAME
-1.6
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.8
+3.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
51
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1603
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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