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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 9:56 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Detroit Pistons have a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00035035SAME
+2.7
+0.3
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003434SAME
-0.3
+2.5
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson26100027SAME
+1.5
-1.6
Langston GallowayL. Galloway71500022SAME
+1.4
-1.6
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.01900019SAME
-3.2
+0.9
Luke KennardL. Kennard05170022SAME
-0.1
-1.1
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington05160021SAME
+0.3
-1.2
Ish SmithI. Smith15000015SAME
-0.5
-0.6
Thon MakerT. Maker0007815SAME
-1.8
+0.9
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00110011SAME
-2.1
-0.2
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000066SAME
-1.8
+2.7
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas030003SAME
-1.5
-0.5
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk004004SAME
-2.0
-1.6
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000606SAME
-2.1
+0.5
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000SAME
-2.2
-1.1
Kalin LucasK. Lucas000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Isaiah WhiteheadI. Whitehead000000SAME
-1.4
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1507
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00035035
+2.7
+0.3
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003434
-0.3
+2.5
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson26100027
+1.5
-1.6
Langston GallowayL. Galloway71500022
+1.4
-1.6
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.01900019
-3.2
+0.9
Luke KennardL. Kennard05170022
-0.1
-1.1
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington05160021
+0.3
-1.2
Ish SmithI. Smith15000015
-0.5
-0.6
Thon MakerT. Maker0007815
-1.8
+0.9
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00110011
-2.1
-0.2
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000066
-1.8
+2.7
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas030003
-1.5
-0.5
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk004004
-2.0
-1.6
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000606
-2.1
+0.5
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000
-2.2
-1.1
Kalin LucasK. Lucas000000
-0.7
-1.0
Isaiah WhiteheadI. Whitehead000000
-1.4
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
0.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1507
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00031839+4
+2.7
+0.3
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003737+3
-0.3
+2.5
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson28200030+3
+1.5
-1.6
Langston GallowayL. Galloway81600024+2
+1.4
-1.6
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.02100021+2
-3.2
+0.9
Luke KennardL. Kennard05190024+2
-0.1
-1.1
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington04190023+2
+0.3
-1.2
Ish SmithI. Smith12000012-3
-0.5
-0.6
Thon MakerT. Maker00017017+2
-1.8
+0.9
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00100010-1
-2.1
-0.2
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000033-3
-1.8
+2.7
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas000000-3
-1.5
-0.5
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk000000-4
-2.0
-1.6
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000000-6
-2.1
+0.5
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000SAME
-2.2
-1.1
Kalin LucasK. Lucas000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Isaiah WhiteheadI. Whitehead000000SAME
-1.4
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.0
-0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1528
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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