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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Detroit Pistons have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00031839SAME
+2.7
+0.5
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003737SAME
-0.2
+2.6
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson28200030SAME
+1.3
-1.5
Langston GallowayL. Galloway81600024SAME
+1.0
-1.6
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.01900019SAME
-3.0
+1.2
Luke KennardL. Kennard05190024SAME
0.0
-1.3
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington06190025SAME
+0.1
-1.0
Ish SmithI. Smith12000012SAME
-0.6
-0.9
Thon MakerT. Maker00017017SAME
-2.2
+1.0
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00100010SAME
-2.2
-0.1
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000033SAME
-2.1
+2.5
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas000000SAME
-1.6
-0.6
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk000000SAME
-2.0
-1.6
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000000SAME
-2.2
+0.3
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000SAME
-2.3
-1.1
Kalin LucasK. Lucas000000SAME
-0.7
-1.0
Isaiah WhiteheadI. Whitehead000000SAME
-1.4
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.7
+0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1528
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00031839
+2.7
+0.5
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003737
-0.2
+2.6
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson28200030
+1.3
-1.5
Langston GallowayL. Galloway81600024
+1.0
-1.6
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.01900019
-3.0
+1.2
Luke KennardL. Kennard05190024
0.0
-1.3
Wayne EllingtonW. Ellington06190025
+0.1
-1.0
Ish SmithI. Smith12000012
-0.6
-0.9
Thon MakerT. Maker00017017
-2.2
+1.0
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00100010
-2.2
-0.1
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000033
-2.1
+2.5
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas000000
-1.6
-0.6
Sviatoslav MykhailiukS. Mykhailiuk000000
-2.0
-1.6
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000000
-2.2
+0.3
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000
-2.3
-1.1
Kalin LucasK. Lucas000000
-0.7
-1.0
Isaiah WhiteheadI. Whitehead000000
-1.4
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.7
+0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
43
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1528
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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