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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Detroit Pistons have a 52% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00034337+2
+2.4
+0.5
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003636+2
-1.1
+2.4
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson28000028SAME
+1.0
-1.9
Reggie BullockR. Bullock01880026+2
+0.2
-1.4
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson00194023+1
-1.9
+0.7
Ish SmithI. Smith800008-12
-0.6
-0.8
Langston GallowayL. Galloway111000021+3
+0.4
-1.4
Luke KennardL. Kennard01450019+2
-0.6
-0.8
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00160016+2
-1.9
-0.3
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000055-6
-1.4
+2.4
Henry EllensonH. Ellenson000000-9
-1.5
-0.1
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.060006+2
-2.5
+0.4
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer00010414+10
-1.9
+0.3
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon100001+1
-2.0
-0.9
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Zach LoftonZ. Lofton000000SAME
-1.6
-1.1
Keenan EvansK. Evans000000SAME
-1.6
-1.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.0
-0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1474
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00034135
+2.4
+0.5
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003434
-1.1
+2.4
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson26200028
+1.0
-1.9
Reggie BullockR. Bullock01680024
+0.2
-1.4
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson00193022
-1.9
+0.7
Ish SmithI. Smith20000020
-0.6
-0.8
Langston GallowayL. Galloway21600018
+0.4
-1.4
Luke KennardL. Kennard01070017
-0.6
-0.8
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson00140014
-1.9
-0.3
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia00001111
-1.4
+2.4
Henry EllensonH. Ellenson000819
-1.5
-0.1
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.040004
-2.5
+0.4
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000314
-1.9
+0.3
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000
-2.0
-0.9
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas000000
-0.9
-1.0
Zach LoftonZ. Lofton000000
-1.6
-1.1
Keenan EvansK. Evans000000
-1.6
-1.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.1
-0.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
38
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1476
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Blake GriffinB. Griffin00031839+4
+2.4
+0.5
Andre DrummondA. Drummond00003737+3
-1.1
+2.4
Reggie JacksonR. Jackson23500028SAME
+1.0
-1.9
Reggie BullockR. Bullock02090029+5
+0.2
-1.4
Stanley JohnsonS. Johnson00222024+2
-1.9
+0.7
Ish SmithI. Smith25000025+5
-0.6
-0.8
Langston GallowayL. Galloway02000020+2
+0.4
-1.4
Luke KennardL. Kennard02120014-3
-0.6
-0.8
Glenn RobinsonG. Robinson015006-8
-1.9
-0.3
Zaza PachuliaZ. Pachulia000033-8
-1.4
+2.4
Henry EllensonH. Ellenson00012012+3
-1.5
-0.1
Bruce Brown Jr.B. Brown Jr.000000-4
-2.5
+0.4
Jon LeuerJ. Leuer000303-1
-1.9
+0.3
Jose CalderonJ. Calderon000000SAME
-2.0
-0.9
Khyri ThomasK. Thomas000000SAME
-0.9
-1.0
Zach LoftonZ. Lofton000000SAME
-1.6
-1.1
Keenan EvansK. Evans000000SAME
-1.6
-1.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.3
-0.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1485
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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