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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Toronto Raptors have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 15% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard06280034SAME
+3.2
+0.7
Kyle LowryK. Lowry34000034SAME
+3.9
+0.4
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00024630SAME
+0.7
+1.4
Danny GreenD. Green02070027+5
-0.3
+1.7
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka00012829+4
-0.6
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet000000-18
+1.3
-0.3
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby00815023SAME
-0.5
-0.3
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas000000-20
-0.3
+1.2
Norman PowellN. Powell01520017+4
-1.1
-0.8
Delon WrightD. Wright12000012+4
+0.1
0.0
Patrick McCawP. McCaw0730010+5
-2.0
-1.1
C.J. MilesC. Miles000000-3
-0.8
-1.4
Greg MonroeG. Monroe00001414+9
-1.0
+0.6
Lorenzo BrownL. Brown200002+2
-1.7
-0.1
Malachi RichardsonM. Richardson000000SAME
-1.5
-1.2
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000808+8
-2.5
+1.3
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd000000SAME
-2.0
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.1
+2.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1652
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard05290034
+3.2
+0.7
Kyle LowryK. Lowry26800034
+3.9
+0.4
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00030030
+0.7
+1.4
Danny GreenD. Green02020022
-0.3
+1.7
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka00022325
-0.6
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet17100018
+1.3
-0.3
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby00716023
-0.5
-0.3
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas00002020
-0.3
+1.2
Norman PowellN. Powell0940013
-1.1
-0.8
Delon WrightD. Wright530008
+0.1
0.0
Patrick McCawP. McCaw023005
-2.0
-1.1
C.J. MilesC. Miles003003
-0.8
-1.4
Greg MonroeG. Monroe000055
-1.0
+0.6
Lorenzo BrownL. Brown000000
-1.7
-0.1
Malachi RichardsonM. Richardson000000
-1.5
-1.2
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000000
-2.5
+1.3
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd000000
-2.0
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.5
+2.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
59
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1684
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard010270037+3
+3.2
+0.7
Kyle LowryK. Lowry29600035+1
+3.9
+0.4
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00031132+2
+0.7
+1.4
Danny GreenD. Green02450029+7
-0.3
+1.7
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka00042731+6
-0.6
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet19700026+8
+1.3
-0.3
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby001013023SAME
-0.5
-0.3
Jonas ValanciunasJ. Valanciunas00002020SAME
-0.3
+1.2
Norman PowellN. Powell016007-6
-1.1
-0.8
Delon WrightD. Wright000000-8
+0.1
0.0
Patrick McCawP. McCaw000000-5
-2.0
-1.1
C.J. MilesC. Miles000000-3
-0.8
-1.4
Greg MonroeG. Monroe000000-5
-1.0
+0.6
Lorenzo BrownL. Brown000000SAME
-1.7
-0.1
Malachi RichardsonM. Richardson000000SAME
-1.5
-1.2
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000000SAME
-2.5
+1.3
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd000000SAME
-2.0
-1.0
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.4
+3.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
62
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1722
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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