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UPDATED Mar. 20, 2019, at 10:36 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Toronto Raptors have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 15% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard000000-34
+3.2
+0.6
Kyle LowryK. Lowry000000-35
+3.7
+0.5
Pascal Siakam*P. Siakam*00035035+4
+1.0
+1.7
Danny GreenD. Green02460030+7
+0.3
+1.7
Marc GasolM. Gasol00003434+11
-0.3
+2.2
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka000000-23
-0.7
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet000000-17
+1.3
-0.2
OG Anunoby*O. Anunoby*00225027+8
-0.9
-0.2
Jeremy LinJ. Lin23000023+10
-0.7
-1.6
Norman PowellN. Powell01740021+13
-1.0
-1.1
Patrick McCaw*P. McCaw*9730019+13
-2.1
-0.4
Chris BoucherC. Boucher00081422+15
-2.7
+0.9
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd16000016+15
-2.2
-1.0
Malcolm MillerM. Miller00130013+13
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-3.6
+2.5
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-3.9
+2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1459
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard05290034
+3.2
+0.6
Kyle LowryK. Lowry26900035
+3.7
+0.5
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00031031
+1.0
+1.7
Danny GreenD. Green01850023
+0.3
+1.7
Marc GasolM. Gasol00002323
-0.3
+2.2
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka00051823
-0.7
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet13400017
+1.3
-0.2
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby00712019
-0.9
-0.2
Jeremy LinJ. Lin9400013
-0.7
-1.6
Norman PowellN. Powell053008
-1.0
-1.1
Patrick McCawP. McCaw024006
-2.1
-0.4
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000077
-2.7
+0.9
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd010001
-2.2
-1.0
Malcolm MillerM. Miller000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.3
+3.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1698
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard010270037+3
+3.2
+0.6
Kyle LowryK. Lowry31500036+1
+3.7
+0.5
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00031132+1
+1.0
+1.7
Danny GreenD. Green02350028+5
+0.3
+1.7
Marc GasolM. Gasol00003232+9
-0.3
+2.2
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka000131528+5
-0.7
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet14700021+4
+1.3
-0.2
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby00144018-1
-0.9
-0.2
Jeremy LinJ. Lin330006-7
-0.7
-1.6
Norman PowellN. Powell002002-6
-1.0
-1.1
Patrick McCawP. McCaw000000-6
-2.1
-0.4
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000000-7
-2.7
+0.9
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd000000-1
-2.2
-1.0
Malcolm MillerM. Miller000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.6
+4.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
64
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1755
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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