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UPDATED May 21, 2019, at 10:43 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Toronto Raptors have an 11% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard07265038SAME
+3.5
+0.6
Kyle LowryK. Lowry33500038+2
+3.2
+1.0
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00034034+1
+1.2
+1.7
Danny GreenD. Green02080028SAME
+1.1
+1.7
Marc GasolM. Gasol00003030SAME
0.0
+2.7
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka00091827SAME
-1.1
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet151000025+3
+1.0
-0.1
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby000000-17
-1.1
-0.4
Norman PowellN. Powell02120014+6
-0.8
-0.6
Jodie MeeksJ. Meeks040004+3
-1.0
-1.7
Patrick McCawP. McCaw002002+2
-2.1
-0.4
Jeremy LinJ. Lin000000SAME
-1.1
-1.3
Eric MorelandE. Moreland000000SAME
-2.7
+2.6
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000000SAME
-2.5
+1.3
Malcolm MillerM. Miller000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd000000SAME
-2.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.3
+5.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
67
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1792
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Kawhi LeonardK. Leonard07265038
+3.5
+0.6
Kyle LowryK. Lowry32400036
+3.2
+1.0
Pascal SiakamP. Siakam00033033
+1.2
+1.7
Danny GreenD. Green02440028
+1.1
+1.7
Marc GasolM. Gasol00003030
0.0
+2.7
Serge IbakaS. Ibaka00091827
-1.1
+0.6
Fred VanVleetF. VanVleet15700022
+1.0
-0.1
OG AnunobyO. Anunoby00161017
-1.1
-0.4
Norman PowellN. Powell062008
-0.8
-0.6
Jodie MeeksJ. Meeks100001
-1.0
-1.7
Patrick McCawP. McCaw000000
-2.1
-0.4
Jeremy LinJ. Lin000000
-1.1
-1.3
Eric MorelandE. Moreland000000
-2.7
+2.6
Chris BoucherC. Boucher000000
-2.5
+1.3
Malcolm MillerM. Miller000000
-1.2
-0.3
Jordan LoydJ. Loyd000000
-2.0
-1.1
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.9
+5.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
66
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1783
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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