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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Houston Rockets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden122080040SAME
+7.7
+0.3
Chris PaulC. Paul34000034SAME
+3.5
+1.5
Clint CapelaC. Capela00013536SAME
-0.1
+2.1
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00037037SAME
-0.8
+1.6
Eric GordonE. Gordon11850024SAME
+1.3
-1.6
Danuel HouseD. House02190021SAME
+0.2
-0.6
Austin RiversA. Rivers1870016SAME
-0.2
-1.3
Gerald GreenG. Green009009SAME
-0.2
-2.1
Kenneth FariedK. Faried0008917SAME
-0.7
-0.1
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert000000SAME
-1.3
-0.5
Nene HilarioN. Hilario000235SAME
-1.9
+1.9
Gary ClarkG. Clark000011SAME
-1.7
-0.1
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000000SAME
-1.0
+1.2
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000SAME
-1.5
-1.2
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000SAME
-2.3
-1.8
Chris ChiozzaC. Chiozza000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Michael FrazierM. Frazier000000SAME
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+8.4
+2.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
65
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1770
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden122080040
+7.7
+0.3
Chris PaulC. Paul34000034
+3.5
+1.5
Clint CapelaC. Capela00013536
-0.1
+2.1
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00037037
-0.8
+1.6
Eric GordonE. Gordon11850024
+1.3
-1.6
Danuel HouseD. House02190021
+0.2
-0.6
Austin RiversA. Rivers1870016
-0.2
-1.3
Gerald GreenG. Green009009
-0.2
-2.1
Kenneth FariedK. Faried0008917
-0.7
-0.1
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert000000
-1.3
-0.5
Nene HilarioN. Hilario000235
-1.9
+1.9
Gary ClarkG. Clark000011
-1.7
-0.1
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000000
-1.0
+1.2
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000
-1.5
-1.2
Trevon DuvalT. Duval000000
-2.3
-1.8
Chris ChiozzaC. Chiozza000000
-1.2
-0.3
Michael FrazierM. Frazier000000
-1.2
-0.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+8.4
+2.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
65
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1770
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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