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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Houston Rockets have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden818110037SAME
+7.7
+0.1
Chris PaulC. Paul33000033SAME
+3.7
+0.9
Clint CapelaC. Capela00003333SAME
-0.3
+1.7
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00529034SAME
-0.8
+1.5
Kenneth FariedK. Faried00016420SAME
-0.7
-0.4
Eric GordonE. Gordon01490023SAME
+1.3
-1.9
Austin RiversA. Rivers5780020SAME
-0.2
-1.5
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert2940015SAME
-1.3
-0.6
Gerald GreenG. Green00100010SAME
-0.2
-2.0
Nene HilarioN. Hilario00001111SAME
-2.2
+1.9
Danuel HouseD. House001001SAME
-0.1
-0.9
Gary ClarkG. Clark000303SAME
-1.8
0.0
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000000SAME
-1.1
+1.2
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000SAME
-1.6
-1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.9
+1.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1700
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden818110037
+7.7
+0.1
Chris PaulC. Paul33000033
+3.7
+0.9
Clint CapelaC. Capela00003333
-0.3
+1.7
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00529034
-0.8
+1.5
Kenneth FariedK. Faried00016420
-0.7
-0.4
Eric GordonE. Gordon01490023
+1.3
-1.9
Austin RiversA. Rivers5780020
-0.2
-1.5
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert2940015
-1.3
-0.6
Gerald GreenG. Green00100010
-0.2
-2.0
Nene HilarioN. Hilario00001111
-2.2
+1.9
Danuel HouseD. House001001
-0.1
-0.9
Gary ClarkG. Clark000303
-1.8
0.0
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000000
-1.1
+1.2
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000
-1.6
-1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.9
+1.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1700
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden112090040+3
+7.7
+0.1
Chris PaulC. Paul33000033SAME
+3.7
+0.9
Clint CapelaC. Capela00003737+4
-0.3
+1.7
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00924336+2
-0.8
+1.5
Kenneth FariedK. Faried00021122+2
-0.7
-0.4
Eric GordonE. Gordon014110025+2
+1.3
-1.9
Austin RiversA. Rivers3890020SAME
-0.2
-1.5
Iman ShumpertI. Shumpert1560012-3
-1.3
-0.6
Gerald GreenG. Green014005-5
-0.2
-2.0
Nene HilarioN. Hilario0003710-1
-2.2
+1.9
Danuel HouseD. House000000-1
-0.1
-0.9
Gary ClarkG. Clark000000-3
-1.8
0.0
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000000SAME
-1.1
+1.2
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000SAME
-1.6
-1.3
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+7.6
+1.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
62
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1726
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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