shoe gif

UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

shoe gif

The Houston Rockets have a 97% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
James Harden*J. Harden*221710040+3
+7.6
+0.1
Chris PaulC. Paul000000-33
+3.8
+0.7
Clint CapelaC. Capela000000-35
-0.2
+1.1
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00827035+2
-0.9
+1.1
Eric GordonE. Gordon000000-24
+0.9
-2.1
Austin RiversA. Rivers171210030+9
0.0
-1.9
James EnnisJ. Ennis04210025+6
-0.8
-0.5
Nene HilarioN. Hilario00001717+2
-2.0
+1.8
Brandon KnightB. Knight000000-8
-0.8
-2.2
Gary ClarkG. Clark00116017+8
-1.4
+0.1
Gerald GreenG. Green9850022+22
-0.3
-1.4
Danuel HouseD. House07100017+17
-0.2
-0.8
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein00001313+8
-0.9
+0.7
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss00001313+12
-1.6
+0.6
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards001506+6
-1.5
-1.3
Zhou QiZ. Qi000055+5
-2.1
+1.1
Carmelo AnthonyC. Anthony000000SAME
-0.5
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.8
-0.5
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+2.7
-0.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
47
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1559
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden102070037
+7.6
+0.1
Chris PaulC. Paul33000033
+3.8
+0.7
Clint CapelaC. Capela00043135
-0.2
+1.1
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00231033
-0.9
+1.1
Eric GordonE. Gordon013110024
+0.9
-2.1
Austin RiversA. Rivers11190021
0.0
-1.9
James EnnisJ. Ennis00190019
-0.8
-0.5
Nene HilarioN. Hilario00041115
-2.0
+1.8
Brandon KnightB. Knight440008
-0.8
-2.2
Gary ClarkG. Clark000909
-1.4
+0.1
Gerald GreenG. Green000000
-0.3
-1.4
Danuel HouseD. House000000
-0.2
-0.8
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000055
-0.9
+0.7
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss000011
-1.6
+0.6
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000
-1.5
-1.3
Zhou QiZ. Qi000000
-2.1
+1.1
Carmelo AnthonyC. Anthony000000
-0.5
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.7
+0.3
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
58
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1678
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
James HardenJ. Harden112180040+3
+7.6
+0.1
Chris PaulC. Paul34000034+1
+3.8
+0.7
Clint CapelaC. Capela00033336+1
-0.2
+1.1
P.J. TuckerP. Tucker00133034+1
-0.9
+1.1
Eric GordonE. Gordon012140026+2
+0.9
-2.1
Austin RiversA. Rivers11380022+1
0.0
-1.9
James EnnisJ. Ennis01170018-1
-0.8
-0.5
Nene HilarioN. Hilario00041317+2
-2.0
+1.8
Brandon KnightB. Knight210003-5
-0.8
-2.2
Gary ClarkG. Clark000808-1
-1.4
+0.1
Gerald GreenG. Green000000SAME
-0.3
-1.4
Danuel HouseD. House000000SAME
-0.2
-0.8
Isaiah HartensteinI. Hartenstein000022-3
-0.9
+0.7
Marquese ChrissM. Chriss000000-1
-1.6
+0.6
Vince EdwardsV. Edwards000000SAME
-1.5
-1.3
Zhou QiZ. Qi000000SAME
-2.1
+1.1
Carmelo AnthonyC. Anthony000000SAME
-0.5
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+7.4
+0.5
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1699
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments