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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Phoenix Suns have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker152000035SAME
+2.5
-2.6
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00004343+12
-0.7
+0.5
T.J. WarrenT. Warren000000-30
0.0
-1.3
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges00280028+5
-0.2
+0.4
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson000000-22
-2.6
-0.7
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson000000-20
-0.3
-0.7
Kelly OubreK. Oubre000000-19
-0.2
-1.1
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton41500019+3
-2.6
+0.1
Elie OkoboE. Okobo18000018+5
-2.6
-1.6
Dragan Bender*D. Bender*00028028+14
-2.5
-0.1
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford05120017+10
-1.9
-3.9
Richaun Holmes*R. Holmes*00020525+16
-0.9
+1.2
Jawun EvansJ. Evans11000011+10
-1.9
-0.7
Troy DanielsT. Daniels081009+9
-0.1
-2.5
George KingG. King007007+7
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.0
-3.2
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-4.7
-3.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
20
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1285
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker152000035
+2.5
-2.6
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00003131
-0.7
+0.5
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001020030
0.0
-1.3
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges00230023
-0.2
+0.4
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson08410022
-2.6
-0.7
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson11900020
-0.3
-0.7
Kelly OubreK. Oubre00712019
-0.2
-1.1
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton8800016
-2.6
+0.1
Elie OkoboE. Okobo13000013
-2.6
-1.6
Dragan BenderD. Bender0006814
-2.5
-0.1
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford034007
-1.9
-3.9
Richaun HolmesR. Holmes000099
-0.9
+1.2
Jawun EvansJ. Evans100001
-1.9
-0.7
Troy DanielsT. Daniels000000
-0.1
-2.5
George KingG. King000000
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.9
-4.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
24
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1328
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker181920039+4
+2.5
-2.6
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00003333+2
-0.7
+0.5
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001121032+2
0.0
-1.3
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges01270028+5
-0.2
+0.4
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson01744025+3
-2.6
-0.7
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson19600025+5
-0.3
-0.7
Kelly OubreK. Oubre00423027+8
-0.2
-1.1
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton7500012-4
-2.6
+0.1
Elie OkoboE. Okobo400004-9
-2.6
-1.6
Dragan BenderD. Bender00001212-2
-2.5
-0.1
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford000000-7
-1.9
-3.9
Richaun HolmesR. Holmes000033-6
-0.9
+1.2
Jawun EvansJ. Evans000000-1
-1.9
-0.7
Troy DanielsT. Daniels000000SAME
-0.1
-2.5
George KingG. King000000SAME
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.8
-3.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
27
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1363
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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