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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Phoenix Suns have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker000000-39
+2.8
-2.6
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton000000-33
-0.8
+0.7
T.J. WarrenT. Warren000000-32
-0.1
-1.2
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges00310031+2
-0.3
-0.3
Josh Jackson*J. Jackson*020028048+22
-2.3
-1.0
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson000000-25
-0.3
-0.7
Kelly OubreK. Oubre000000-25
-0.3
-0.9
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton16500021+9
-2.7
+0.1
Elie OkoboE. Okobo20000020+16
-2.5
-1.8
Dragan Bender*D. Bender*000201636+24
-2.4
-0.3
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford01470021+21
-1.3
-4.0
Richaun Holmes*R. Holmes*00003232+29
-0.9
+1.3
Jawun EvansJ. Evans12000012+12
-1.9
-0.7
Troy DanielsT. Daniels0910010+10
-0.3
-2.7
George KingG. King009009+9
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-8.1
-3.6
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
-10.3
-5.8
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
9
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1086
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker181920039
+2.8
-2.6
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00003333
-0.8
+0.7
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001121032
-0.1
-1.2
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges01280029
-0.3
-0.3
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson01745026
-2.3
-1.0
Tyler JohnsonT. Johnson19600025
-0.3
-0.7
Kelly OubreK. Oubre00322025
-0.3
-0.9
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton7500012
-2.7
+0.1
Elie OkoboE. Okobo400004
-2.5
-1.8
Dragan BenderD. Bender00001212
-2.4
-0.3
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford000000
-1.3
-4.0
Richaun HolmesR. Holmes000033
-0.9
+1.3
Jawun EvansJ. Evans000000
-1.9
-0.7
Troy DanielsT. Daniels000000
-0.3
-2.7
George KingG. King000000
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.6
-4.1
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
27
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1361
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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