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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Phoenix Suns have a <1% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker000000-35
+2.6
-2.4
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00003030SAME
-0.5
+0.2
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001615031+1
+0.6
-1.5
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges011140025+1
-0.7
+0.5
Kelly OubreK. Oubre031410027+5
-0.8
-1.3
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson02400024+3
-2.4
-0.6
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton17300020+1
-2.2
+0.3
Elie OkoboE. Okobo18000018+2
-2.0
-1.1
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford000000-14
-1.7
-3.8
Richaun HolmesR. Holmes00071017+5
-0.2
+1.3
Ryan AndersonR. Anderson0009514+5
-0.3
-0.9
Jawun EvansJ. Evans13000013+9
-1.8
-0.7
Dragan BenderD. Bender0007310+6
-2.0
0.0
Troy DanielsT. Daniels070007+7
-0.1
-2.7
George KingG. King004004+4
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-4.8
-2.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
23
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1319
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker171800035
+2.6
-2.4
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00003030
-0.5
+0.2
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001119030
+0.6
-1.5
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges00240024
-0.7
+0.5
Kelly OubreK. Oubre00715022
-0.8
-1.3
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson01227021
-2.4
-0.6
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton11800019
-2.2
+0.3
Elie OkoboE. Okobo16000016
-2.0
-1.1
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford01040014
-1.7
-3.8
Richaun HolmesR. Holmes00021012
-0.2
+1.3
Ryan AndersonR. Anderson000549
-0.3
-0.9
Jawun EvansJ. Evans400004
-1.8
-0.7
Dragan BenderD. Bender000044
-2.0
0.0
Troy DanielsT. Daniels000000
-0.1
-2.7
George KingG. King000000
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-2.3
-4.4
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
24
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1337
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Devin BookerD. Booker191910039+4
+2.6
-2.4
DeAndre AytonD. Ayton00003232+2
-0.5
+0.2
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001024034+4
+0.6
-1.5
Mikal BridgesM. Bridges04210025+1
-0.7
+0.5
Kelly OubreK. Oubre01820029+7
-0.8
-1.3
Josh JacksonJ. Jackson01753025+4
-2.4
-0.6
De'Anthony MeltonD. Melton16400020+1
-2.2
+0.3
Elie OkoboE. Okobo13000013-3
-2.0
-1.1
Jamal CrawfordJ. Crawford033006-8
-1.7
-3.8
Richaun HolmesR. Holmes00001111-1
-0.2
+1.3
Ryan AndersonR. Anderson000156-3
-0.3
-0.9
Jawun EvansJ. Evans000000-4
-1.8
-0.7
Dragan BenderD. Bender000000-4
-2.0
0.0
Troy DanielsT. Daniels000000SAME
-0.1
-2.7
George KingG. King000000SAME
-1.7
-1.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-1.6
-4.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
26
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1359
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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