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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 29% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003737+2
+3.2
+1.2
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins09280037+2
+0.5
-1.6
Robert CovingtonR. Covington000000-34
0.0
+2.7
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague000000-29
+1.0
-0.9
Derrick RoseD. Rose131500028+3
+0.9
-2.5
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00024226+1
-0.6
+0.8
Dario SaricD. Saric00023427+5
+0.2
-0.6
Tyus JonesT. Jones22000022+7
+0.6
+0.4
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie01920021+9
-2.0
-0.3
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless11230016+11
-1.3
-1.7
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver00130013+10
-0.1
-0.4
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000156+6
-1.8
+1.2
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams032005+5
-1.9
-0.6
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell200002+2
-1.7
-1.0
James NunnallyJ. Nunnally000000SAME
-1.6
-1.4
Luol DengL. Deng000000SAME
-2.1
+0.5
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000SAME
-1.8
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+1.6
-2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
39
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1489
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003535
+3.2
+1.2
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins010250035
+0.5
-1.6
Robert CovingtonR. Covington061711034
0.0
+2.7
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague29000029
+1.0
-0.9
Derrick RoseD. Rose52000025
+0.9
-2.5
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00019625
-0.6
+0.8
Dario SaricD. Saric00016622
+0.2
-0.6
Tyus JonesT. Jones13200015
+0.6
+0.4
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie0840012
-2.0
-0.3
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless122005
-1.3
-1.7
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver000213
-0.1
-0.4
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000000
-1.8
+1.2
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams000000
-1.9
-0.6
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell000000
-1.7
-1.0
James NunnallyJ. Nunnally000000
-1.6
-1.4
Luol DengL. Deng000000
-2.1
+0.5
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000
-1.8
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.1
-0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
48
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1576
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003636+1
+3.2
+1.2
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins08290037+2
+0.5
-1.6
Robert CovingtonR. Covington011915035+1
0.0
+2.7
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague31000031+2
+1.0
-0.9
Derrick RoseD. Rose72100028+3
+0.9
-2.5
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00019625SAME
-0.6
+0.8
Dario SaricD. Saric00014620-2
+0.2
-0.6
Tyus JonesT. Jones10600016+1
+0.6
+0.4
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie0280010-2
-2.0
-0.3
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless002002-3
-1.3
-1.7
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver000000-3
-0.1
-0.4
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000000SAME
-1.8
+1.2
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams000000SAME
-1.9
-0.6
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell000000SAME
-1.7
-1.0
James NunnallyJ. Nunnally000000SAME
-1.6
-1.4
Luol DengL. Deng000000SAME
-2.1
+0.5
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000SAME
-1.8
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.5
-0.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
49
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1585
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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