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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003636+2
+4.0
+1.1
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins09280037+2
0.0
-1.4
Robert CovingtonR. Covington000000-34
-0.3
+3.0
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague000000-30
+0.8
-1.2
Derrick RoseD. Rose000000-26
+0.7
-2.7
Taj GibsonT. Gibson000000-25
-0.5
+0.3
Dario SaricD. Saric00028028+7
+0.4
-1.0
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie02410025+9
-1.5
+0.1
Luol DengL. Deng000000-12
-1.5
+0.6
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless17140022+16
-1.8
-2.2
Tyus JonesT. Jones22000022+21
+0.6
+0.3
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver00415019+19
-0.5
-0.6
Isaiah CanaanI. Canaan71000017+17
-1.1
-1.7
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng00021214+14
-1.6
+0.9
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams00110011+11
-1.9
-0.7
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell240006+6
-1.8
-1.2
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000303+3
-2.2
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.1
-2.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
34
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1441
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003434
+4.0
+1.1
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins09260035
0.0
-1.4
Robert CovingtonR. Covington0101311034
-0.3
+3.0
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague30000030
+0.8
-1.2
Derrick RoseD. Rose141200026
+0.7
-2.7
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00017825
-0.5
+0.3
Dario SaricD. Saric00015621
+0.4
-1.0
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie01600016
-1.5
+0.1
Luol DengL. Deng0075012
-1.5
+0.6
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless402006
-1.8
-2.2
Tyus JonesT. Jones010001
+0.6
+0.3
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver000000
-0.5
-0.6
Isaiah CanaanI. Canaan000000
-1.1
-1.7
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000000
-1.6
+0.9
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams000000
-1.9
-0.7
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell000000
-1.8
-1.2
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000
-2.2
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.3
-0.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
45
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1545
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003535+1
+4.0
+1.1
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins08290037+2
0.0
-1.4
Robert CovingtonR. Covington0101015035+1
-0.3
+3.0
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague31000031+1
+0.8
-1.2
Derrick RoseD. Rose121400026SAME
+0.7
-2.7
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00019625SAME
-0.5
+0.3
Dario SaricD. Saric00014721SAME
+0.4
-1.0
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie01600016SAME
-1.5
+0.1
Luol DengL. Deng009009-3
-1.5
+0.6
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless500005-1
-1.8
-2.2
Tyus JonesT. Jones000000-1
+0.6
+0.3
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver000000SAME
-0.5
-0.6
Isaiah CanaanI. Canaan000000SAME
-1.1
-1.7
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000000SAME
-1.6
+0.9
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams000000SAME
-1.9
-0.7
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell000000SAME
-1.8
-1.2
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000SAME
-2.2
-0.7
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.5
-0.7
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
46
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1551
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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