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UPDATED May 19, 2019, at 7:20 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003737+2
+3.8
+1.1
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins013260039+2
+0.1
-1.5
Robert CovingtonR. Covington000000-35
-0.3
+3.0
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague000000-31
+0.7
-1.1
Derrick RoseD. Rose000000-26
+0.6
-2.5
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00025227+2
-0.6
+0.4
Dario SaricD. Saric00023528+7
+0.4
-1.1
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie02500025+9
-1.4
0.0
Luol DengL. Deng00190019+10
-1.6
+0.7
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless20200022+17
-1.8
-2.4
Tyus JonesT. Jones17200019+19
+0.7
0.0
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver003047+7
-0.6
-0.7
Isaiah CanaanI. Canaan810009+9
-1.1
-1.7
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000000SAME
-1.4
+0.8
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams040004+4
-1.8
-0.6
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell310004+4
-2.0
-1.4
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000SAME
-2.3
-0.5
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.4
-2.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
36
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1459
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Karl-Anthony TownsK. Towns00003535
+3.8
+1.1
Andrew WigginsA. Wiggins08290037
+0.1
-1.5
Robert CovingtonR. Covington0101015035
-0.3
+3.0
Jeff TeagueJ. Teague31000031
+0.7
-1.1
Derrick RoseD. Rose121400026
+0.6
-2.5
Taj GibsonT. Gibson00019625
-0.6
+0.4
Dario SaricD. Saric00014721
+0.4
-1.1
Josh OkogieJ. Okogie01600016
-1.4
0.0
Luol DengL. Deng009009
-1.6
+0.7
Jerryd BaylessJ. Bayless500005
-1.8
-2.4
Tyus JonesT. Jones000000
+0.7
0.0
Anthony TolliverA. Tolliver000000
-0.6
-0.7
Isaiah CanaanI. Canaan000000
-1.1
-1.7
Gorgui DiengG. Dieng000000
-1.4
+0.8
C.J. WilliamsC. Williams000000
-1.8
-0.6
Jared TerrellJ. Terrell000000
-2.0
-1.4
Keita Bates-DiopK. Bates-Diop000000
-2.3
-0.5
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.3
-0.6
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
45
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1547
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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