Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.

This is our overview of the race to control the House, but if you want to see a specific race, check out the search bar in the top left.
There are three versions of our congressional forecasts, and this year we’re defaulting to the Deluxe 🎉 version. Click on the magnifying glass to see the others.

Forecasting each House seat

Each party’s chances of winning every House seat

Solid R
≥95% R
Likely R
Lean R
<60% both
Lean D
Likely D
Solid D
≥95% D
The current House seat count assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.
Will it be a close race or a landslide? Hover to see the percentage of the vote we're forecasting each candidate to win.

How the House forecast has changed

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win, not just whether it’ll win.

Who’s ahead in competitive districts

Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.

Race Legend
80% of outcomes fall in this range
Incumbent Legend
Incumbent candidate/controlling party
Margin of victory
Click any district to see a more detailed forecast, including what polls are influencing our model.

Pick a model!


Click here to change which version of the model you see!