Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split.

When both parties hold 50 seats, control of the Senate is decided by which party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
Want to see other versions of the forecast? Click the magnifying glass in the lower left!

Forecasting each Senate seat

Icon Legend
Solid R
≥95% R
Likely R
≥75%
Lean R
≥60%
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean D
≥60%
Likely D
≥75%
Solid D
≥95% D
Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Forecasts do not add to 100 in some races due to rounding.
In the Louisiana race and Georgia’s special election, multiple candidates from each party are facing off on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, two candidates go to a runoff.

How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast.
As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.

Who’s ahead in each state

Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.

Race Legend
80% of outcomes fall in this range
Special Election Legend
Special election
Incumbent Legend
Incumbent candidate/controlling party
Margin of victory
Fun fact: Incumbents who were appointed to their seat lose more often than elected incumbents, so they don’t get an incumbency boost in our model.
Congrats, you made it to the bottom! If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the methodology.

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