2020-21 NBA Player Projections
Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
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Draymond Green
- Warriors
- Golden State Warriors
- Power Forward
- 30 years old
Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile | |||
---|---|---|---|
Vitals | 50th | ||
Height | 6'6" | ||
Weight | 230 | ||
Draft position | 35 |
Scoring | |||
---|---|---|---|
True shooting % | 51% | ||
Free throw % | 75% | ||
Usage % | 15% |
Tendencies | |||
---|---|---|---|
3 pt. frequency | 39% | ||
FT frequency | 26% |
Passing/ball handling | |||
---|---|---|---|
Assist % | 30% | ||
Turnover % | 23% |
Defense/rebounding | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rebound % | 13% | ||
Block % | 2.7% | ||
Steal % | 2.2% | ||
Defensive +/- | +2.9 |
Wins above replacement projection
Category: KEY ROLE PLAYER
5-yr market value: $39.8m
Confidence interval
Projection
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Boris Diaw
Year: 2013
Similarity: 42
2
Sam Lacey
Year: 1979
Similarity: 40
3
Alvan Adams
Year: 1985
Similarity: 38
4
Derrick McKey
Year: 1998
Similarity: 38
5
Paul Pressey
Year: 1990
Similarity: 34
6
Robert Horry
Year: 2001
Similarity: 33
7
Allan Bristow
Year: 1982
Similarity: 33
8
Jerome Kersey
Year: 1993
Similarity: 32
9
Aaron McKie
Year: 2004
Similarity: 31
10
Darrell Walker
Year: 1992
Similarity: 30
Draymond Green
- Warriors
- Golden State Warriors
- Power Forward
- 30 years old
The fine print
RAPTOR Ratings | 2018 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive +/- | Reg. season | +0.7 | -0.3 | -2.5 | -1.3 | -1.6 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.8 | -3.0 |
Playoffs | +1.9 | +2.9 | — | -0.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -2.2 | |
Combined | +1.0 | +0.8 | -2.5 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.9 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.6 | |
Defensive +/- | Reg. season | +2.4 | +3.5 | +2.3 | +2.3 | +2.1 | +1.9 | +1.9 | +1.8 | +1.7 | +1.6 |
Playoffs | +6.1 | +4.4 | — | +2.6 | +2.4 | +2.2 | +2.2 | +2.1 | +2.0 | +1.9 | |
Combined | +3.5 | +3.8 | +2.3 | +2.4 | +2.3 | +2.1 | +2.1 | +2.0 | +1.8 | +1.8 | |
Total +/- | Reg. season | +3.1 | +3.3 | -0.2 | +1.0 | +0.5 | +0.1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -1.4 |
Playoffs | +8.0 | +7.3 | — | +2.1 | +1.6 | +1.2 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.0 | -0.3 | |
Combined | +4.5 | +4.6 | -0.2 | +1.5 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +0.2 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.9 |
Per 82 games | 2018 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAR | Reg. season | 6.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Playoffs | 18.2 | 17.3 | — | 4.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
Combined | 9.6 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
Market value | Reg. season | $27.9m | $27.1m | $7.8m | $13.0m | $10.0m | $6.9m | $5.1m | $3.0m | $1.5m | $0.9m |
Playoffs | $94.0m | $92.2m | — | $18.1m | $13.7m | $9.2m | $6.8m | $4.0m | $2.1m | $1.2m | |
Combined | $43.5m | $42.9m | $7.8m | $15.6m | $11.8m | $8.0m | $6.0m | $3.5m | $1.8m | $1.0m | |
Minutes played | Reg. season | 2,287 | 2,065 | 1,542 | 1,707 | 1,429 | 1,065 | 853 | 516 | 287 | 170 |
Playoffs | 3,198 | 3,172 | — | 1,874 | 1,513 | 1,084 | 842 | 495 | 271 | 161 | |
Combined | 2,501 | 2,335 | 1,542 | 1,791 | 1,471 | 1,075 | 847 | 506 | 279 | 166 |
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | Total +/- | Mkt. value | Min. played |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +4.5 | $43.5m | 2,501 |
2019 | +0.8 | +3.8 | +4.6 | $42.9m | 2,335 |
2020 | -2.5 | +2.3 | -0.2 | $7.8m | 1,542 |
2021 | -0.9 | +2.4 | +1.5 | $15.6m | 1,791 |
2022 | -1.2 | +2.3 | +1.0 | $11.8m | 1,471 |
2023 | -1.4 | +2.1 | +0.6 | $8.0m | 1,075 |
2024 | -1.9 | +2.1 | +0.2 | $6.0m | 847 |
2025 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 0.0 | $3.5m | 506 |
2026 | -2.3 | +1.8 | -0.5 | $1.8m | 279 |
2027 | -2.6 | +1.8 | -0.9 | $1.0m | 166 |
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