2020-21 NBA Player Projections
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Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
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Vernon Carey Jr.
- Hornets
- Charlotte Hornets
- Center
- 19 years old
- Rookie ✔
ADJUSTED COLLEGE STATISTICS
Bad
Avg.
Good
As compared with rookies
| Percentile | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitals | 50th | ||
| Height | 6'10" | ||
| Weight | 270 | ||
| Draft position | 32 | ||
| Scoring | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| True shooting % | 68% | ||
| Usage % | 34% | ||
| Tendencies | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 pt. frequency | 6% | ||
| FT frequency | 64% | ||
| Passing/ball handling | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Assist % | 10% | ||
| Turnover % | 12% | ||
| Defense/rebounding | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebound % | 19% | ||
| Block % | 5.7% | ||
| Steal % | 1.5% | ||
Wins above replacement projection
Category: OK PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $17.0m
Confidence interval
Projection
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Tony Bradley
Year: 2018
Similarity: 47
2
Diamond Stone
Year: 2017
Similarity: 46
3
Zach Randolph
Year: 2002
Similarity: 41
4
Jarrett Allen
Year: 2018
Similarity: 37
5
Jared Sullinger
Year: 2013
Similarity: 33
6
D. Cousins
Year: 2011
Similarity: 33
7
Kosta Koufos
Year: 2009
Similarity: 31
8
Thomas Bryant
Year: 2018
Similarity: 30
9
Tobias Harris
Year: 2012
Similarity: 29
10
Ivan Rabb
Year: 2018
Similarity: 27
Vernon Carey Jr.
- Hornets
- Charlotte Hornets
- Center
- 19 years old
- Rookie ✔
The fine print
| RAPTOR Ratings | 2018 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive +/- | Reg. season | — | — | — | -2.8 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| Playoffs | — | — | — | -2.7 | -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.4 | |
| Combined | — | — | — | -2.8 | -1.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -0.1 | +0.4 | |
| Defensive +/- | Reg. season | — | — | — | -1.1 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Playoffs | — | — | — | -1.0 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Combined | — | — | — | -1.1 | -1.2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Total +/- | Reg. season | — | — | — | -3.9 | -2.6 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| Playoffs | — | — | — | -3.8 | -2.5 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 | |
| Combined | — | — | — | -3.8 | -2.6 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| Per 82 games | 2018 | '19 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAR | Reg. season | — | — | — | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Playoffs | — | — | — | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | |
| Combined | — | — | — | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | |
| Market value | Reg. season | — | — | — | $0.9m | $1.9m | $3.7m | $4.4m | $6.2m | $8.5m | $11.6m |
| Playoffs | — | — | — | $1.3m | $1.9m | $3.3m | $4.1m | $5.8m | $8.4m | $11.5m | |
| Combined | — | — | — | $1.1m | $1.9m | $3.5m | $4.2m | $6.0m | $8.4m | $11.6m | |
| Minutes played | Reg. season | — | — | — | 520 | 835 | 994 | 991 | 1,091 | 1,132 | 1,252 |
| Playoffs | — | — | — | 310 | 614 | 827 | 894 | 1,064 | 1,161 | 1,324 | |
| Combined | — | — | — | 415 | 724 | 910 | 943 | 1,078 | 1,147 | 1,288 |
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
| Year | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | Total +/- | Mkt. value | Min. played |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2019 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2021 | -2.8 | -1.1 | -3.8 | $1.1m | 415 |
| 2022 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -2.6 | $1.9m | 724 |
| 2023 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -1.6 | $3.5m | 910 |
| 2024 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -1.2 | $4.2m | 943 |
| 2025 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.9 | $6.0m | 1,078 |
| 2026 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | $8.4m | 1,147 |
| 2027 | +0.4 | 0.0 | +0.4 | $11.6m | 1,288 |
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