# Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below.

Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a *probabilistic forecast* for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

Sign in using Google or Facebook to save your selections, and check back next week to see how well you did against FiveThirtyEight and everybody else playing the game.

New for the 2021 NFL season: You can create a custom leaderboard and invite friends to compete in a private competition against each other.

## Week 4

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## Season leaderboard

## Week 3 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

PHI at DAL PHI 21, DAL 41 | EaglesPHI | at CowboysDAL | DAL68% | PHI 21, DAL 41 | |||||||||

GB at SF GB 30, SF 28 | PackersGB | at 49ersSF | SF63% | GB 30, SF 28 | |||||||||

SEA at MIN SEA 17, MIN 30 | SeahawksSEA | at VikingsMIN | SEA50% | SEA 17, MIN 30 | |||||||||

TB at LAR TB 24, LAR 34 | BuccaneersTB | at RamsLAR | LAR51% | TB 24, LAR 34 | |||||||||

MIA at LV MIA 28, LV 31 | DolphinsMIA | at RaidersLV | LV63% | MIA 28, LV 31 | |||||||||

NYJ at DEN NYJ 0, DEN 26 | JetsNYJ | at BroncosDEN | DEN83% | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | |||||||||

ARI at JAX ARI 31, JAX 19 | CardinalsARI | at JaguarsJAX | ARI72% | ARI 31, JAX 19 | |||||||||

ATL at NYG ATL 17, NYG 14 | FalconsATL | at GiantsNYG | NYG61% | ATL 17, NYG 14 | |||||||||

BAL at DET BAL 19, DET 17 | RavensBAL | at LionsDET | BAL73% | BAL 19, DET 17 | |||||||||

CHI at CLE CHI 6, CLE 26 | BearsCHI | at BrownsCLE | CLE73% | CHI 6, CLE 26 | |||||||||

CIN at PIT CIN 24, PIT 10 | BengalsCIN | at SteelersPIT | PIT68% | CIN 24, PIT 10 | |||||||||

IND at TEN IND 16, TEN 25 | ColtsIND | at TitansTEN | TEN62% | IND 16, TEN 25 | |||||||||

LAC at KC LAC 30, KC 24 | ChargersLAC | at ChiefsKC | KC75% | LAC 30, KC 24 | |||||||||

NO at NE NO 28, NE 13 | SaintsNO | at PatriotsNE | NE56% | NO 28, NE 13 | |||||||||

WSH at BUF WSH 21, BUF 43 | WashingtonWSH | at BillsBUF | BUF85% | WSH 21, BUF 43 | |||||||||

CAR at HOU CAR 24, HOU 9 | PanthersCAR | at TexansHOU | CAR76% | CAR 24, HOU 9 | |||||||||

Week 3 points | Week 3 points | Week 3 points |

## Week 2 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DET at GB DET 17, GB 35 | LionsDET | at PackersGB | GB80% | DET 17, GB 35 | |||||||||

KC at BAL KC 35, BAL 36 | ChiefsKC | at RavensBAL | KC55% | KC 35, BAL 36 | |||||||||

DAL at LAC DAL 20, LAC 17 | CowboysDAL | at ChargersLAC | LAC61% | DAL 20, LAC 17 | |||||||||

TEN at SEA TEN 33, SEA 30 | TitansTEN | at SeahawksSEA | SEA71% | TEN 33, SEA 30 | |||||||||

ATL at TB ATL 25, TB 48 | FalconsATL | at BuccaneersTB | TB85% | ATL 25, TB 48 | |||||||||

MIN at ARI MIN 33, ARI 34 | VikingsMIN | at CardinalsARI | ARI64% | MIN 33, ARI 34 | |||||||||

BUF at MIA BUF 35, MIA 0 | BillsBUF | at DolphinsMIA | BUF50% | BUF 35, MIA 0 | |||||||||

CIN at CHI CIN 17, CHI 20 | BengalsCIN | at BearsCHI | CHI57% | CIN 17, CHI 20 | |||||||||

DEN at JAX DEN 23, JAX 13 | BroncosDEN | at JaguarsJAX | DEN68% | DEN 23, JAX 13 | |||||||||

HOU at CLE HOU 21, CLE 31 | TexansHOU | at BrownsCLE | CLE86% | HOU 21, CLE 31 | |||||||||

LAR at IND LAR 27, IND 24 | RamsLAR | at ColtsIND | LAR56% | LAR 27, IND 24 | |||||||||

NE at NYJ NE 25, NYJ 6 | PatriotsNE | at JetsNYJ | NE61% | NE 25, NYJ 6 | |||||||||

NO at CAR NO 7, CAR 26 | SaintsNO | at PanthersCAR | NO61% | NO 7, CAR 26 | |||||||||

OAK at PIT LV 26, PIT 17 | RaidersLV | at SteelersPIT | PIT66% | LV 26, PIT 17 | |||||||||

SF at PHI SF 17, PHI 11 | 49ersSF | at EaglesPHI | SF52% | SF 17, PHI 11 | |||||||||

NYG at WSH NYG 29, WSH 30 | GiantsNYG | at WashingtonWSH | NYG53% | NYG 29, WSH 30 | |||||||||

Week 2 points | Week 2 points | Week 2 points |

## Week 1 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

BAL at LV BAL 27, LV 33 | RavensBAL | at RaidersLV | BAL60% | BAL 27, LV 33 | |||||||||

CHI at LAR CHI 14, LAR 34 | BearsCHI | at RamsLAR | LAR73% | CHI 14, LAR 34 | |||||||||

CLE at KC CLE 29, KC 33 | BrownsCLE | at ChiefsKC | KC68% | CLE 29, KC 33 | |||||||||

DEN at NYG DEN 27, NYG 13 | BroncosDEN | at GiantsNYG | DEN50% | DEN 27, NYG 13 | |||||||||

GB at NO GB 3, NO 38 | PackersGB | at SaintsNO | GB59% | GB 3, NO 38 | |||||||||

MIA at NE MIA 17, NE 16 | DolphinsMIA | at PatriotsNE | NE57% | MIA 17, NE 16 | |||||||||

ARI at TEN ARI 38, TEN 13 | CardinalsARI | at TitansTEN | TEN66% | ARI 38, TEN 13 | |||||||||

JAX at HOU JAX 21, HOU 37 | JaguarsJAX | at TexansHOU | JAX59% | JAX 21, HOU 37 | |||||||||

LAC at WSH LAC 20, WSH 16 | ChargersLAC | at WashingtonWSH | WSH58% | LAC 20, WSH 16 | |||||||||

MIN at CIN MIN 24, CIN 27 | VikingsMIN | at BengalsCIN | MIN53% | MIN 24, CIN 27 | |||||||||

NYJ at CAR NYJ 14, CAR 19 | JetsNYJ | at PanthersCAR | CAR65% | NYJ 14, CAR 19 | |||||||||

PHI at ATL PHI 32, ATL 6 | EaglesPHI | at FalconsATL | ATL64% | PHI 32, ATL 6 | |||||||||

PIT at BUF PIT 23, BUF 16 | SteelersPIT | at BillsBUF | BUF72% | PIT 23, BUF 16 | |||||||||

SEA at IND SEA 28, IND 16 | SeahawksSEA | at ColtsIND | IND52% | SEA 28, IND 16 | |||||||||

SF at DET SF 41, DET 33 | 49ersSF | at LionsDET | SF66% | SF 41, DET 33 | |||||||||

DAL at TB DAL 29, TB 31 | CowboysDAL | at BuccaneersTB | TB74% | DAL 29, TB 31 | |||||||||

Week 1 points | Week 1 points | Week 1 points |

## Your custom leaderboards

When you sign in and create a leaderboard, you’ll receive a link to send to friends or colleagues to invite them to your competition. Anybody clicking the link will join your leaderboard once they are signed up.

/forecasts completed

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