UPDATED Sep. 16, 2021, at 11:44 PM

2021 NFL Predictions

For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.

More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?

elo with top qb
elo rating
1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivision
record
sim. record
point diff.make playoffswin division1st-round byewin super bowl
1660
Chiefs1-0AFC West12-5+116.285%55%33%15%
1653
Buccaneers1-0NFC South12-5+112.386%57%28%14%
1593
Rams1-0NFC West11-6+80.469%29%13%8%
1593
Saints1-0NFC South11-6+102.373%34%15%7%
1583
Seahawks1-0NFC West11-6+70.867%28%12%6%
1583
Bills0-1AFC East10-7+70.065%42%8%5%
1561
49ers1-0NFC West10-7+58.564%24%10%4%
1569
Ravens0-1AFC North9-8+38.450%28%6%4%
1541
Chargers1-0AFC West10-7+30.654%18%9%4%
1556
Browns0-1AFC North9-8+47.852%30%5%4%
1536
Steelers1-0AFC North10-7+26.654%30%8%3%
1537
Broncos1-0AFC West10-7+48.957%19%9%3%
1538
Cardinals1-0NFC West10-7+54.055%19%7%3%
1524
Dolphins1-0AFC East10-7+41.563%39%9%3%
1540
Packers0-1NFC North9-8-8.454%47%3%3%
1526
Cowboys0-1NFC East9-8+17.048%39%2%2%
1505
Patriots0-1AFC East8-9+8.835%15%2%2%
1487
Titans0-1AFC South8-9-25.547%41%3%1%
1482
Eagles1-0NFC East8-9+9.446%37%4%1%
1499
Vikings0-1NFC North8-9-12.239%31%2%1%
1485
Raiders1-0AFC West8-9-22.233%8%3%1%
1486
Colts0-1AFC South8-9-8.748%43%2%1%
1460
Panthers1-0NFC South8-9-36.328%7%2%0.8%
1446
Bengals1-0AFC North8-9-43.526%12%2%0.8%
1485
+1
-115Washington1-1NFC East7-10-72.721%16%0.5%0.7%
1441
Bears0-1NFC North7-10-70.622%17%0.5%0.4%
1424
+3
Giants0-2NFC East6-11-84.212%8%0.2%0.2%
1411
Falcons0-1NFC South6-11-94.611%2%0.3%0.2%
1373
Jets0-1AFC East6-11-87.410%4%0.4%0.2%
1359
Lions0-1NFC North5-12-122.18%6%<0.1%<0.1%
1343
Jaguars0-1AFC South5-12-121.610%8%0.1%<0.1%
1304
Texans1-0AFC South5-12-123.810%8%0.1%<0.1%

Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 16

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants-153%29
Washington47%30
Quality
4
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
48
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
26
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Sept. 19

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills50%
DolphinsPK50%
Quality
74
Importance
91
Overall
83
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals43%
Bears-257%
Quality
20
Importance
49
Overall
35
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-5.568%
Jaguars32%
Quality
18
Importance
45
Overall
32
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%
Browns-12.586%
Quality
13
Importance
16
Overall
15
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-256%
Colts44%
Quality
68
Importance
64
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-361%
Jets39%
Quality
18
Importance
52
Overall
35
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-361%
Panthers39%
Quality
60
Importance
77
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders34%
Steelers-4.566%
Quality
53
Importance
78
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-0.552%
Eagles48%
Quality
59
Importance
79
Overall
69
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons15%
Buccaneers-1285%
Quality
60
Importance
17
Overall
39
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%
Cardinals-464%
Quality
58
Importance
73
Overall
66
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys39%
Chargers-361%
Quality
66
Importance
68
Overall
67
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans29%
Seahawks-6.571%
Quality
66
Importance
52
Overall
59
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.555%
Ravens45%
Quality
93
Importance
83
Overall
88

Monday, Sept. 20

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions20%
Packers-9.580%
Quality
21
Importance
33
Overall
27

Week 3

Thursday, Sept. 23

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers-464%
Texans36%
Quality
4
Importance
33
Overall
19

Sunday, Sept. 26

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-5.568%
Jaguars32%
Quality
18
Importance
40
Overall
29
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons40%
Giants-360%
Quality
12
Importance
25
Overall
19
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-671%
Lions29%
Quality
26
Importance
34
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%
Browns-773%
Quality
47
Importance
44
Overall
46
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals30%
Steelers-670%
Quality
43
Importance
74
Overall
59
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts42%
Titans-2.558%
Quality
41
Importance
98
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers26%
Chiefs-774%
Quality
89
Importance
60
Overall
75
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-154%
Patriots46%
Quality
72
Importance
64
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington18%
Bills-10.582%
Quality
32
Importance
27
Overall
30
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins46%
Raiders-154%
Quality
51
Importance
86
Overall
69
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets21%
Broncos-979%
Quality
23
Importance
37
Overall
30
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks-153%
Vikings47%
Quality
68
Importance
74
Overall
71
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers50%
RamsPK50%
Quality
94
Importance
84
Overall
89
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers38%
49ers-3.562%
Quality
73
Importance
77
Overall
75

Monday, Sept. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles35%
Cowboys-465%
Quality
50
Importance
91
Overall
71

Week 4

Thursday, Sept. 30

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars28%
Bengals-6.572%
Quality
6
Importance
32
Overall
19

Sunday, Oct. 3

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers33%
Cowboys-567%
Quality
44
Importance
68
Overall
56
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns50%
VikingsPK50%
Quality
62
Importance
74
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions31%
Bears-5.569%
Quality
7
Importance
31
Overall
19
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans12%
Bills-13.588%
Quality
16
Importance
17
Overall
17
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts36%
Dolphins-464%
Quality
51
Importance
77
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-566%
Eagles34%
Quality
79
Importance
60
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants21%
Saints-979%
Quality
50
Importance
34
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-2.558%
Jets42%
Quality
15
Importance
50
Overall
33
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington36%
Falcons-464%
Quality
5
Importance
34
Overall
20
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals35%
Rams-4.565%
Quality
79
Importance
86
Overall
83
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks45%
49ers-1.555%
Quality
81
Importance
89
Overall
85
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens46%
Broncos-154%
Quality
74
Importance
89
Overall
82
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers41%
Packers-2.559%
Quality
68
Importance
70
Overall
69
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-3.562%
Patriots38%
Quality
83
Importance
58
Overall
71

Monday, Oct. 4

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders34%
Chargers-4.566%
Quality
55
Importance
87
Overall
71

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 7

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams43%
Seahawks-257%
Quality
86
Importance
86
Overall
86

Sunday, Oct. 10

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets44%
Falcons-1.556%
Quality
6
Importance
22
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos42%
Steelers-2.558%
Quality
67
Importance
89
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions24%
Vikings-876%
Quality
15
Importance
38
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-1.555%
Bengals45%
Quality
44
Importance
66
Overall
55
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins26%
Buccaneers-7.574%
Quality
86
Importance
44
Overall
65
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-5.569%
Texans31%
Quality
7
Importance
40
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-6.572%
Washington28%
Quality
34
Importance
55
Overall
45
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles45%
Panthers-1.555%
Quality
33
Importance
77
Overall
55
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-3.562%
Jaguars38%
Quality
10
Importance
66
Overall
38
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears35%
Raiders-465%
Quality
29
Importance
53
Overall
41
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns43%
Chargers-257%
Quality
72
Importance
91
Overall
82
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants28%
Cowboys-6.572%
Quality
34
Importance
61
Overall
48
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers45%
Cardinals-1.555%
Quality
73
Importance
92
Overall
83
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills31%
Chiefs-5.569%
Quality
94
Importance
71
Overall
83

Monday, Oct. 11

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts31%
Ravens-5.569%
Quality
62
Importance
69
Overall
66

Week 6

Thursday, Oct. 14

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-4.566%
Eagles34%
Quality
78
Importance
71
Overall
75

Sunday, Oct. 17

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-774%
Jaguars26%
Quality
15
Importance
43
Overall
29
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-154%
Lions46%
Quality
7
Importance
36
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-256%
Bears44%
Quality
42
Importance
91
Overall
67
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans20%
Colts-9.580%
Quality
5
Importance
42
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-979%
Washington21%
Quality
49
Importance
33
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers37%
Ravens-3.563%
Quality
75
Importance
88
Overall
82
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-465%
Giants35%
Quality
50
Importance
54
Overall
52
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings47%
Panthers-153%
Quality
37
Importance
78
Overall
58
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals39%
Browns-361%
Quality
72
Importance
75
Overall
74
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys44%
Patriots-1.556%
Quality
56
Importance
74
Overall
65
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders35%
Broncos-4.565%
Quality
54
Importance
89
Overall
72
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks48%
Steelers-0.552%
Quality
77
Importance
78
Overall
78

Monday, Oct. 18

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-1.555%
Titans45%
Quality
66
Importance
85
Overall
76

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 21

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos39%
Browns-361%
Quality
72
Importance
90
Overall
81

Sunday, Oct. 24

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons30%
Dolphins-670%
Quality
31
Importance
45
Overall
38
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers47%
Giants-153%
Quality
20
Importance
52
Overall
36
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals26%
Ravens-774%
Quality
51
Importance
73
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.566%
Titans34%
Quality
80
Importance
71
Overall
76
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets28%
Patriots-6.572%
Quality
18
Importance
52
Overall
35
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington21%
Packers-979%
Quality
23
Importance
43
Overall
33
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions15%
Rams-1285%
Quality
31
Importance
21
Overall
26
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles41%
Raiders-2.559%
Quality
40
Importance
75
Overall
58
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears17%
Buccaneers-1183%
Quality
68
Importance
30
Overall
49
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans16%
Cardinals-11.584%
Quality
10
Importance
21
Overall
16
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts28%
49ers-6.572%
Quality
60
Importance
59
Overall
60

Monday, Oct. 25

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints46%
Seahawks-154%
Quality
86
Importance
85
Overall
86

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 28

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers42%
Cardinals-2.558%
Quality
68
Importance
88
Overall
78

Sunday, Oct. 31

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers49%
Falcons-0.551%
Quality
18
Importance
57
Overall
38
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-0.552%
Jets48%
Quality
10
Importance
51
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-979%
Texans21%
Quality
18
Importance
30
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins30%
Bills-5.570%
Quality
74
Importance
88
Overall
81
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.559%
Lions41%
Quality
12
Importance
50
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers43%
Browns-257%
Quality
71
Importance
95
Overall
83
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-2.558%
Bears42%
Quality
48
Importance
72
Overall
60
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans42%
Colts-258%
Quality
41
Importance
99
Overall
70
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars17%
Seahawks-1183%
Quality
25
Importance
24
Overall
25
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots33%
Chargers-567%
Quality
60
Importance
87
Overall
74
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BuccaneersPK51%
Saints49%
Quality
94
Importance
86
Overall
90
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington25%
Broncos-875%
Quality
32
Importance
49
Overall
41
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys45%
Vikings-1.555%
Quality
55
Importance
83
Overall
69

Monday, Nov. 1

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants15%
Chiefs-1285%
Quality
65
Importance
19
Overall
42

Week 9

Thursday, Nov. 4

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets27%
Colts-773%
Quality
15
Importance
42
Overall
29

Sunday, Nov. 7

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons20%
Saints-9.580%
Quality
47
Importance
44
Overall
46
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-774%
Jaguars26%
Quality
25
Importance
43
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-258%
Bengals42%
Quality
48
Importance
91
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos43%
Cowboys-257%
Quality
65
Importance
82
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans17%
Dolphins-1183%
Quality
9
Importance
30
Overall
20
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings29%
Ravens-671%
Quality
66
Importance
64
Overall
65
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots48%
Panthers-0.552%
Quality
39
Importance
74
Overall
57
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders-153%
Giants47%
Quality
25
Importance
53
Overall
39
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers49%
EaglesPK51%
Quality
54
Importance
83
Overall
69
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals39%
49ers-361%
Quality
73
Importance
94
Overall
84
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers27%
Chiefs-773%
Quality
89
Importance
50
Overall
70
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans28%
Rams-6.572%
Quality
68
Importance
62
Overall
65

Monday, Nov. 8

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears29%
Steelers-671%
Quality
41
Importance
56
Overall
49

Week 10

Thursday, Nov. 11

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens48%
Dolphins-0.552%
Quality
71
Importance
93
Overall
82

Sunday, Nov. 14

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons27%
Cowboys-773%
Quality
31
Importance
50
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-671%
Jets29%
Quality
33
Importance
58
Overall
46
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns49%
Patriots-0.551%
Quality
64
Importance
93
Overall
79
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions23%
Steelers-8.577%
Quality
20
Importance
32
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars24%
Colts-876%
Quality
10
Importance
54
Overall
32
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-257%
Titans43%
Quality
68
Importance
73
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-4.565%
Washington35%
Quality
79
Importance
58
Overall
69
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers31%
Cardinals-5.569%
Quality
47
Importance
87
Overall
67
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%
Chargers-464%
Quality
59
Importance
72
Overall
66
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles34%
Broncos-4.566%
Quality
53
Importance
76
Overall
65
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
SeahawksPK51%
Packers49%
Quality
78
Importance
87
Overall
83
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.566%
Raiders34%
Quality
80
Importance
82
Overall
81

Monday, Nov. 15

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams46%
49ers-154%
Quality
83
Importance
93
Overall
88

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 18

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-1.555%
Falcons45%
Quality
26
Importance
54
Overall
40

Sunday, Nov. 21

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-257%
Bears43%
Quality
50
Importance
70
Overall
60
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions19%
Browns-1081%
Quality
24
Importance
27
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers48%
Vikings-0.552%
Quality
58
Importance
98
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans22%
Titans-8.578%
Quality
5
Importance
50
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts29%
Bills-671%
Quality
65
Importance
73
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-3.563%
Jets37%
Quality
21
Importance
67
Overall
44
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-257%
Eagles43%
Quality
67
Importance
86
Overall
77
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-671%
Jaguars29%
Quality
21
Importance
42
Overall
32
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington46%
Panthers-154%
Quality
34
Importance
68
Overall
51
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals39%
Raiders-361%
Quality
30
Importance
80
Overall
55
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals35%
Seahawks-465%
Quality
77
Importance
92
Overall
85
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys25%
Chiefs-7.575%
Quality
87
Importance
53
Overall
70
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers40%
Chargers-360%
Quality
68
Importance
92
Overall
80

Monday, Nov. 22

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants18%
Buccaneers-10.582%
Quality
64
Importance
24
Overall
44

Week 12

Thursday, Nov. 25

12:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears-154%
Lions46%
Quality
7
Importance
44
Overall
26
4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders36%
Cowboys-464%
Quality
51
Importance
76
Overall
64
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills40%
Saints-360%
Quality
86
Importance
71
Overall
79

Sunday, Nov. 28

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons-0.552%
Jaguars48%
Quality
3
Importance
24
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers33%
Dolphins-567%
Quality
44
Importance
72
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets-0.551%
Texans49%
Quality
1
Importance
24
Overall
13
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
EaglesPK50%
Giants50%
Quality
24
Importance
77
Overall
51
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers-1.555%
Bengals45%
Quality
43
Importance
93
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-4.565%
Colts35%
Quality
79
Importance
65
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans39%
Patriots-361%
Quality
47
Importance
83
Overall
65
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers39%
Broncos-361%
Quality
68
Importance
94
Overall
81
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-0.552%
Packers48%
Quality
79
Importance
87
Overall
83
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings33%
49ers-567%
Quality
64
Importance
85
Overall
75
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns40%
Ravens-360%
Quality
78
Importance
96
Overall
87

Monday, Nov. 29

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks-1.555%
Washington45%
Quality
65
Importance
74
Overall
70

Week 13

Thursday, Dec. 2

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys33%
Saints-567%
Quality
77
Importance
79
Overall
78

Sunday, Dec. 5

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-2.559%
Bears41%
Quality
42
Importance
80
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos24%
Chiefs-876%
Quality
88
Importance
65
Overall
77
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-567%
Texans33%
Quality
5
Importance
68
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-1.555%
Bengals45%
Quality
44
Importance
89
Overall
67
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-3.562%
Lions38%
Quality
15
Importance
59
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants29%
Dolphins-6.571%
Quality
34
Importance
49
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-258%
Jets42%
Quality
15
Importance
57
Overall
36
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-7.574%
Falcons26%
Quality
60
Importance
41
Overall
51
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington41%
Raiders-2.559%
Quality
41
Importance
64
Overall
53
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens47%
Steelers-153%
Quality
74
Importance
97
Overall
86
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars14%
Rams-12.586%
Quality
27
Importance
23
Overall
25
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers39%
Seahawks-361%
Quality
81
Importance
92
Overall
87

Monday, Dec. 6

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots32%
Bills-5.568%
Quality
70
Importance
94
Overall
82

Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 9

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers47%
Vikings-153%
Quality
57
Importance
84
Overall
71

Sunday, Dec. 12

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons32%
Panthers-568%
Quality
18
Importance
55
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens40%
Browns-2.560%
Quality
78
Importance
96
Overall
87
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys47%
Washington-153%
Quality
51
Importance
92
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars21%
Titans-979%
Quality
10
Importance
52
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-6.572%
Jets28%
Quality
35
Importance
42
Overall
39
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders21%
Chiefs-9.579%
Quality
80
Importance
58
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks-8.578%
Texans22%
Quality
16
Importance
34
Overall
25
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-257%
Bengals43%
Quality
49
Importance
75
Overall
62
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions20%
Broncos-9.580%
Quality
20
Importance
32
Overall
26
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants26%
Chargers-7.574%
Quality
38
Importance
50
Overall
44
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills32%
Buccaneers-568%
Quality
93
Importance
59
Overall
76
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears26%
Packers-774%
Quality
42
Importance
86
Overall
64

Monday, Dec. 13

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams50%
CardinalsPK50%
Quality
79
Importance
96
Overall
88

Week 15

Thursday, Dec. 16

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-2.558%
Chargers42%
Quality
89
Importance
92
Overall
91

Sunday, Dec. 19

Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers26%
Bills-774%
Quality
58
Importance
60
Overall
59
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots44%
Colts-1.556%
Quality
47
Importance
87
Overall
67
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets20%
Dolphins-9.580%
Quality
21
Importance
53
Overall
37
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders32%
Browns-5.568%
Quality
58
Importance
88
Overall
73
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington39%
Eagles-361%
Quality
40
Importance
91
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-4.566%
Lions34%
Quality
20
Importance
52
Overall
36
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-1.556%
Giants44%
Quality
34
Importance
76
Overall
55
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers38%
Ravens-3.562%
Quality
75
Importance
78
Overall
77
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans36%
Jaguars-464%
Quality
0
Importance
26
Overall
13
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans35%
Steelers-465%
Quality
54
Importance
87
Overall
71
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons23%
49ers-8.577%
Quality
39
Importance
52
Overall
46
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals30%
Broncos-670%
Quality
43
Importance
81
Overall
62
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks40%
Rams-360%
Quality
86
Importance
91
Overall
89
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints34%
Buccaneers-4.566%
Quality
94
Importance
76
Overall
85

Monday, Dec. 20

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
VikingsPK50%
Bears50%
Quality
33
Importance
90
Overall
62

Week 16

Thursday, Dec. 23

8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-0.552%
Titans48%
Quality
60
Importance
83
Overall
72

Saturday, Dec. 25

4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns44%
Packers-1.556%
Quality
72
Importance
83
Overall
78
8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts34%
Cardinals-4.566%
Quality
54
Importance
79
Overall
67

Sunday, Dec. 26

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-2.559%
Bengals41%
Quality
51
Importance
92
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-153%
Patriots47%
Quality
70
Importance
96
Overall
83
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions35%
Falcons-4.565%
Quality
4
Importance
20
Overall
12
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars38%
Jets-3.562%
Quality
1
Importance
24
Overall
13
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-774%
Texans26%
Quality
11
Importance
50
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-1.555%
Vikings45%
Quality
71
Importance
87
Overall
79
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants34%
Eagles-4.566%
Quality
24
Importance
75
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-5.569%
Panthers31%
Quality
73
Importance
72
Overall
73
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears24%
Seahawks-876%
Quality
52
Importance
57
Overall
55
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos49%
RaidersPK51%
Quality
54
Importance
94
Overall
74
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers26%
Chiefs-7.574%
Quality
88
Importance
73
Overall
81
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Washington36%
Cowboys-464%
Quality
51
Importance
91
Overall
71

Monday, Dec. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins33%
Saints-567%
Quality
76
Importance
69
Overall
73

Week 17

Sunday, Jan. 2, 2022

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals43%
Cowboys-257%
Quality
65
Importance
92
Overall
79
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons21%
Bills-979%
Quality
44
Importance
39
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers25%
Saints-7.575%
Quality
60
Importance
80
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars22%
Patriots-978%
Quality
13
Importance
35
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-6.571%
Bengals29%
Quality
71
Importance
67
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins47%
Titans-153%
Quality
51
Importance
88
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants39%
Bears-361%
Quality
17
Importance
43
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders41%
Colts-2.559%
Quality
41
Importance
86
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles42%
Washington-2.558%
Quality
40
Importance
90
Overall
65
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-978%
Jets22%
Quality
49
Importance
27
Overall
38
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos41%
Chargers-2.559%
Quality
68
Importance
96
Overall
82
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%
49ers-1386%
Quality
13
Importance
21
Overall
17
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions16%
Seahawks-11.584%
Quality
29
Importance
28
Overall
29
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams44%
Ravens-1.556%
Quality
84
Importance
83
Overall
84
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%
Packers-464%
Quality
58
Importance
98
Overall
78

Monday, Jan. 3, 2022

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns45%
Steelers-1.555%
Quality
71
Importance
97
Overall
84

Week 18

Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers19%
Buccaneers-1081%
Quality
73
Importance
55
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears34%
Vikings-4.566%
Quality
33
Importance
88
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals28%
Browns-6.572%
Quality
48
Importance
87
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys48%
Eagles-0.552%
Quality
50
Importance
99
Overall
75
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-567%
Lions33%
Quality
21
Importance
61
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-3.562%
Jaguars38%
Quality
10
Importance
71
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots39%
Dolphins-361%
Quality
56
Importance
95
Overall
76
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-567%
Falcons33%
Quality
47
Importance
62
Overall
55
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets18%
Bills-10.582%
Quality
33
Importance
47
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers38%
Ravens-3.562%
Quality
74
Importance
96
Overall
85
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-567%
Texans33%
Quality
5
Importance
66
Overall
36
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
WashingtonPK51%
Giants49%
Quality
25
Importance
53
Overall
39
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-2.559%
Broncos41%
Quality
88
Importance
90
Overall
89
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
ChargersPK50%
Raiders50%
Quality
55
Importance
95
Overall
75
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks48%
Cardinals-0.552%
Quality
77
Importance
95
Overall
86
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers38%
Rams-3.562%
Quality
83
Importance
92
Overall
88

Completed

Week 1

Thursday, Sept. 9

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys26%29
Buccaneers-774%31
Quality
85
Importance
48
Overall
67

Sunday, Sept. 12

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals34%38
Titans-4.566%13
Quality
56
Importance
59
Overall
58
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-2.559%21
Texans41%37
Quality
0
Importance
17
Overall
9
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers42%20
Washington-258%16
Quality
58
Importance
67
Overall
63
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-153%24
Bengals47%27
Quality
33
Importance
57
Overall
45
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets35%14
Panthers-4.565%19
Quality
12
Importance
36
Overall
24
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles36%32
Falcons-464%6
Quality
21
Importance
57
Overall
39
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers28%23
Bills-6.572%16
Quality
78
Importance
58
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks48%28
Colts-0.552%16
Quality
63
Importance
73
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-4.566%41
Lions34%33
Quality
23
Importance
45
Overall
34
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns32%29
Chiefs-5.568%33
Quality
90
Importance
60
Overall
75
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BroncosPK50%27
Giants50%13
Quality
34
Importance
60
Overall
47
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-2.559%3
Saints41%38
Quality
80
Importance
74
Overall
77
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins43%17
Patriots-257%16
Quality
54
Importance
90
Overall
72
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%14
Rams-773%34
Quality
54
Importance
54
Overall
54

Monday, Sept. 13

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-360%27
Raiders40%33
Quality
60
Importance
65
Overall
63

Quarterback ratings

The top quarterbacks for each team and their value in Elo points, which are used in our quarterback-adjusted model. Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running. Initial rookie ratings are based on draft position; undrafted rookies begin their careers with an Elo value of zero, while a first overall draft pick starts with an Elo value of 113.

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West