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UPDATED Sep. 24, 2021, at 12:17 AM

2021 WNBA Predictions

Updated after every game.

More WNBA: How this works

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The Phoenix Mercury have a 2%
 chance of winning the WNBA Finals
100%
chance of making the playoffs
<1%
chance of getting a two-round bye
7%
chance of making the finals
2%
chance of winning the finals
Probabilities by final position

Eight teams make the WNBA playoffs. The first two rounds are single-elimination games, and the semifinals and finals are five-game series. The top two seeds get double byes (and are guaranteed spots in the semifinals), while the next two seeds get one-round byes.

bye to semifinals
bye to second round
make playoffs
miss playoffs
Team rating
Mercury Elo over the 2021 WNBA season, along with the top and bottom team Elo ratings
Historical team rating
Mercury Elo rating after every game since {year}

Upcoming games


Sunday, Sept. 26Second Round

3 p.m. Eastern Game 1elo spreadwin prob.
Mercury37%
Storm-3.563%

Completed games


Thursday, Sept. 23First Round

10 p.m. Eastern Game 1elo spreadwin prob.final score
Liberty11%82
Mercury-1389%83

Sunday, Sept. 19

3 p.m. Easternelo spreadwin prob.final score
Aces-153%84
Mercury47%83

Friday, Sept. 17

10 p.m. Easternelo spreadwin prob.final score
Mercury43%85
Storm-1.557%94
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Forecasts from Aug. 12 to Aug. 25 have been removed because they mistakenly attributed the Commissioner's Cup final played between the Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun as a regular-season game.

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