U.S. senate

 

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios our model considers possible.

Republicans win
Democrats win

No Electoral College majority, House decides election
U.S. house

 

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios our model considers possible.

Republicans win
Democrats win

No Electoral College majority, House decides election
Republicans win both chambers
Republicans win both chambers
Republicans win the Senate
Democrats win the House
Republicans win Senate
Democrats win House
Democrats win the Senate
Republicans win the House
Democrats win Senate
Republicans win House
Democrats win both chambers
Democrats win both chambers
Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding.
Remember me? I’m Fivey Fox! Welcome to our 2020 forecast. Oh, @#$%&!, it’s the midterms already?
U.S. GOVERNORS

Forecasting each governorship

Icon Legend
Solid R
Solid
≥95% R
Likely R
Likely
≥75%
Lean R
Lean
≥60%
Toss-up
<60% both
Lean D
Lean
≥60%
Likely D
Likely
≥75%
Solid D
Solid
≥95% D
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We’re forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each party’s chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election.

2022 Election Coverage

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