Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in.

UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM


How the House forecast has changed

See how each candidate’s forecasted vote share and chances of winning the seat have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Forecast data prior to the official candidate selection uses our best guess as to who the candidate will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.

Visit us every day — we’re always updating.

Which polls are influencing the forecast for Vermont’s at-large district?


Pick a model!


Click here to change which version of the model you see!