UPDATED Sep. 28, 2022, at 9:04 PM

Explore The Ways Republicans Or Democrats Could Win The Midterms

Pick the winner of each race to see how FiveThirtyEight’s forecast would change.

2022 election forecastHow our forecast works

FiveThirtyEight’s Senate and House forecasts are based on myriad factors, with changes in one race often influencing odds in another. To see just how much individual races can change the forecast, first try picking different winners in key Senate races (or feel free to skip ahead to key races in the House!).1Specifically, we’re looking at the 15 most competitive races between a Democrat and Republican in the House and Senate, provided no candidate has more than a 98.5 percent chance of winning. But beware, the choices you make in the Senate affect the House, and vice versa.


Based on FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast


Based on FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast


Who will control Congress?

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s current forecast

Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding.