UPDATED Sep. 26, 2022, at 11:28 PM

Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below.

Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a probabilistic forecast for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

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Week 4

/ forecasts completed

Thursday, Sept. 29
at 8:15 p.m. Eastern
Thursday, Sept. 29
at 8:15 p.m. Eastern
" + game.team2 + "-logo
DolphinsMIAAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BengalsCINHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 9:30 a.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 9:30 a.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
VikingsMINAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
SaintsNOHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BillsBUFAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
RavensBALHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BearsCHIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
GiantsNYGHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BrownsCLEAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
FalconsATLHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
JaguarsJAXAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
EaglesPHIHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
ChargersLACAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
TexansHOUHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
JetsNYJAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
SteelersPITHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
SeahawksSEAAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
LionsDETHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
TitansTENAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
ColtsINDHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 1 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
WashingtonWSHAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
CowboysDALHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 4:05 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 4:05 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
CardinalsARIAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
PanthersCARHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
BroncosDENAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
RaidersLVHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 4:25 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 4:25 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
PatriotsNEAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
PackersGBHome
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 8:20 p.m.
Sunday, Oct. 2
at 8:20 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
ChiefsKCAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
BuccaneersTBHome
Monday, Oct. 3
at 8:15 p.m.
Monday, Oct. 3
at 8:15 p.m.
" + game.team2 + "-logo
RamsLARAway
" + game.team1 + "-logo
49ersSFHome

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Season leaderboard

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Week 3 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
DAL at NYG
DAL 23,
NYG 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoCowboysDALat " + game.team1 + "-logoGiantsNYGNYG66%DAL 23, NYG 16
SF at DEN
SF 10,
DEN 11
" + game.team2 + "-logo49ersSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoBroncosDENDEN51%SF 10, DEN 11
ATL at SEA
ATL 27,
SEA 23
" + game.team2 + "-logoFalconsATLat " + game.team1 + "-logoSeahawksSEASEA65%ATL 27, SEA 23
GB at TB
GB 14,
TB 12
" + game.team2 + "-logoPackersGBat " + game.team1 + "-logoBuccaneersTBTB67%GB 14, TB 12
LAR at ARI
LAR 20,
ARI 12
" + game.team2 + "-logoRamsLARat " + game.team1 + "-logoCardinalsARILAR51%LAR 20, ARI 12
JAX at LAC
JAX 38,
LAC 10
" + game.team2 + "-logoJaguarsJAXat " + game.team1 + "-logoChargersLACLAC74%JAX 38, LAC 10
BAL at NE
BAL 37,
NE 26
" + game.team2 + "-logoRavensBALat " + game.team1 + "-logoPatriotsNEBAL51%BAL 37, NE 26
BUF at MIA
BUF 19,
MIA 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoBillsBUFat " + game.team1 + "-logoDolphinsMIABUF57%BUF 19, MIA 21
CIN at NYJ
CIN 27,
NYJ 12
" + game.team2 + "-logoBengalsCINat " + game.team1 + "-logoJetsNYJCIN56%CIN 27, NYJ 12
DET at MIN
DET 24,
MIN 28
" + game.team2 + "-logoLionsDETat " + game.team1 + "-logoVikingsMINMIN70%DET 24, MIN 28
HOU at CHI
HOU 20,
CHI 23
" + game.team2 + "-logoTexansHOUat " + game.team1 + "-logoBearsCHICHI66%HOU 20, CHI 23
KC at IND
KC 17,
IND 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoChiefsKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoColtsINDKC66%KC 17, IND 20
NO at CAR
NO 14,
CAR 22
" + game.team2 + "-logoSaintsNOat " + game.team1 + "-logoPanthersCARNO58%NO 14, CAR 22
OAK at TEN
LV 22,
TEN 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoRaidersLVat " + game.team1 + "-logoTitansTENTEN62%LV 22, TEN 24
PHI at WSH
PHI 24,
WSH 8
" + game.team2 + "-logoEaglesPHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoWashingtonWSHPHI59%PHI 24, WSH 8
PIT at CLE
PIT 17,
CLE 29
" + game.team2 + "-logoSteelersPITat " + game.team1 + "-logoBrownsCLEPIT50%PIT 17, CLE 29
Week 3 pointsWeek 3 pointsWeek 3 points

Week 2 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
MIN at PHI
MIN 7,
PHI 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoVikingsMINat " + game.team1 + "-logoEaglesPHIPHI55%MIN 7, PHI 24
TEN at BUF
TEN 7,
BUF 41
" + game.team2 + "-logoTitansTENat " + game.team1 + "-logoBillsBUFBUF76%TEN 7, BUF 41
CHI at GB
CHI 10,
GB 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoBearsCHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoPackersGBGB73%CHI 10, GB 27
ARI at LV
ARI 29,
LV 23
" + game.team2 + "-logoCardinalsARIat " + game.team1 + "-logoRaidersLVLV58%ARI 29, LV 23
CIN at DAL
CIN 17,
DAL 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoBengalsCINat " + game.team1 + "-logoCowboysDALCIN66%CIN 17, DAL 20
HOU at DEN
HOU 9,
DEN 16
" + game.team2 + "-logoTexansHOUat " + game.team1 + "-logoBroncosDENDEN76%HOU 9, DEN 16
ATL at LAR
ATL 27,
LAR 31
" + game.team2 + "-logoFalconsATLat " + game.team1 + "-logoRamsLARLAR79%ATL 27, LAR 31
SEA at SF
SEA 7,
SF 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoSeahawksSEAat " + game.team1 + "-logo49ersSFSF69%SEA 7, SF 27
CAR at NYG
CAR 16,
NYG 19
" + game.team2 + "-logoPanthersCARat " + game.team1 + "-logoGiantsNYGNYG64%CAR 16, NYG 19
IND at JAX
IND 0,
JAX 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoColtsINDat " + game.team1 + "-logoJaguarsJAXIND65%IND 0, JAX 24
MIA at BAL
MIA 42,
BAL 38
" + game.team2 + "-logoDolphinsMIAat " + game.team1 + "-logoRavensBALBAL60%MIA 42, BAL 38
NE at PIT
NE 17,
PIT 14
" + game.team2 + "-logoPatriotsNEat " + game.team1 + "-logoSteelersPITPIT58%NE 17, PIT 14
NYJ at CLE
NYJ 31,
CLE 30
" + game.team2 + "-logoJetsNYJat " + game.team1 + "-logoBrownsCLECLE62%NYJ 31, CLE 30
TB at NO
TB 20,
NO 10
" + game.team2 + "-logoBuccaneersTBat " + game.team1 + "-logoSaintsNOTB58%TB 20, NO 10
WSH at DET
WSH 27,
DET 36
" + game.team2 + "-logoWashingtonWSHat " + game.team1 + "-logoLionsDETWSH56%WSH 27, DET 36
LAC at KC
LAC 24,
KC 27
" + game.team2 + "-logoChargersLACat " + game.team1 + "-logoChiefsKCKC67%LAC 24, KC 27
Week 2 pointsWeek 2 pointsWeek 2 points

Week 1 results

MatchupFiveThirtyEight
forecast
538
forecast
Your
forecast
Game scoreFiveThirtyEight
points
538
points
Your
points
DEN at SEA
DEN 16,
SEA 17
" + game.team2 + "-logoBroncosDENat " + game.team1 + "-logoSeahawksSEADEN57%DEN 16, SEA 17
TB at DAL
TB 19,
DAL 3
" + game.team2 + "-logoBuccaneersTBat " + game.team1 + "-logoCowboysDALDAL51%TB 19, DAL 3
GB at MIN
GB 7,
MIN 23
" + game.team2 + "-logoPackersGBat " + game.team1 + "-logoVikingsMINGB53%GB 7, MIN 23
KC at ARI
KC 44,
ARI 21
" + game.team2 + "-logoChiefsKCat " + game.team1 + "-logoCardinalsARIKC57%KC 44, ARI 21
NYG at TEN
NYG 21,
TEN 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoGiantsNYGat " + game.team1 + "-logoTitansTENTEN69%NYG 21, TEN 20
OAK at LAC
LV 19,
LAC 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoRaidersLVat " + game.team1 + "-logoChargersLACLAC64%LV 19, LAC 24
BAL at NYJ
BAL 24,
NYJ 9
" + game.team2 + "-logoRavensBALat " + game.team1 + "-logoJetsNYJBAL62%BAL 24, NYJ 9
CLE at CAR
CLE 26,
CAR 24
" + game.team2 + "-logoBrownsCLEat " + game.team1 + "-logoPanthersCARCAR57%CLE 26, CAR 24
IND at HOU
IND 20,
HOU 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoColtsINDat " + game.team1 + "-logoTexansHOUIND67%IND 20, HOU 20
JAX at WSH
JAX 22,
WSH 28
" + game.team2 + "-logoJaguarsJAXat " + game.team1 + "-logoWashingtonWSHWSH68%JAX 22, WSH 28
NE at MIA
NE 7,
MIA 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoPatriotsNEat " + game.team1 + "-logoDolphinsMIAMIA58%NE 7, MIA 20
NO at ATL
NO 27,
ATL 26
" + game.team2 + "-logoSaintsNOat " + game.team1 + "-logoFalconsATLNO64%NO 27, ATL 26
PHI at DET
PHI 38,
DET 35
" + game.team2 + "-logoEaglesPHIat " + game.team1 + "-logoLionsDETPHI60%PHI 38, DET 35
PIT at CIN
PIT 23,
CIN 20
" + game.team2 + "-logoSteelersPITat " + game.team1 + "-logoBengalsCINCIN68%PIT 23, CIN 20
SF at CHI
SF 10,
CHI 19
" + game.team2 + "-logo49ersSFat " + game.team1 + "-logoBearsCHISF63%SF 10, CHI 19
BUF at LAR
BUF 31,
LAR 10
" + game.team2 + "-logoBillsBUFat " + game.team1 + "-logoRamsLARLAR53%BUF 31, LAR 10
Week 1 pointsWeek 1 pointsWeek 1 points

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Saving …

/forecasts completed

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