# Can You Beat FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Forecasts?

Can you outsmart our forecasts? Make your picks using the sliders below.

Our NFL forecasts are based on a simple algorithm that relies on Elo ratings, which use only a few pieces of information to rate each team and project each game. But beware: We’re asking you to make a *probabilistic forecast* for each matchup — and our game punishes overconfidence. For the full rules, read here. The margin of victory in each NFL game won’t affect your score.

Sign in using Google or Facebook to save your selections, and check back next week to see how well you did against FiveThirtyEight and everybody else playing the game.

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## Week 4

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## Season leaderboard

## Week 3 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DAL at NYG DAL 23, NYG 16 | CowboysDAL | at GiantsNYG | NYG66% | DAL 23, NYG 16 | |||||||||

SF at DEN SF 10, DEN 11 | 49ersSF | at BroncosDEN | DEN51% | SF 10, DEN 11 | |||||||||

ATL at SEA ATL 27, SEA 23 | FalconsATL | at SeahawksSEA | SEA65% | ATL 27, SEA 23 | |||||||||

GB at TB GB 14, TB 12 | PackersGB | at BuccaneersTB | TB67% | GB 14, TB 12 | |||||||||

LAR at ARI LAR 20, ARI 12 | RamsLAR | at CardinalsARI | LAR51% | LAR 20, ARI 12 | |||||||||

JAX at LAC JAX 38, LAC 10 | JaguarsJAX | at ChargersLAC | LAC74% | JAX 38, LAC 10 | |||||||||

BAL at NE BAL 37, NE 26 | RavensBAL | at PatriotsNE | BAL51% | BAL 37, NE 26 | |||||||||

BUF at MIA BUF 19, MIA 21 | BillsBUF | at DolphinsMIA | BUF57% | BUF 19, MIA 21 | |||||||||

CIN at NYJ CIN 27, NYJ 12 | BengalsCIN | at JetsNYJ | CIN56% | CIN 27, NYJ 12 | |||||||||

DET at MIN DET 24, MIN 28 | LionsDET | at VikingsMIN | MIN70% | DET 24, MIN 28 | |||||||||

HOU at CHI HOU 20, CHI 23 | TexansHOU | at BearsCHI | CHI66% | HOU 20, CHI 23 | |||||||||

KC at IND KC 17, IND 20 | ChiefsKC | at ColtsIND | KC66% | KC 17, IND 20 | |||||||||

NO at CAR NO 14, CAR 22 | SaintsNO | at PanthersCAR | NO58% | NO 14, CAR 22 | |||||||||

OAK at TEN LV 22, TEN 24 | RaidersLV | at TitansTEN | TEN62% | LV 22, TEN 24 | |||||||||

PHI at WSH PHI 24, WSH 8 | EaglesPHI | at WashingtonWSH | PHI59% | PHI 24, WSH 8 | |||||||||

PIT at CLE PIT 17, CLE 29 | SteelersPIT | at BrownsCLE | PIT50% | PIT 17, CLE 29 | |||||||||

Week 3 points | Week 3 points | Week 3 points |

## Week 2 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

MIN at PHI MIN 7, PHI 24 | VikingsMIN | at EaglesPHI | PHI55% | MIN 7, PHI 24 | |||||||||

TEN at BUF TEN 7, BUF 41 | TitansTEN | at BillsBUF | BUF76% | TEN 7, BUF 41 | |||||||||

CHI at GB CHI 10, GB 27 | BearsCHI | at PackersGB | GB73% | CHI 10, GB 27 | |||||||||

ARI at LV ARI 29, LV 23 | CardinalsARI | at RaidersLV | LV58% | ARI 29, LV 23 | |||||||||

CIN at DAL CIN 17, DAL 20 | BengalsCIN | at CowboysDAL | CIN66% | CIN 17, DAL 20 | |||||||||

HOU at DEN HOU 9, DEN 16 | TexansHOU | at BroncosDEN | DEN76% | HOU 9, DEN 16 | |||||||||

ATL at LAR ATL 27, LAR 31 | FalconsATL | at RamsLAR | LAR79% | ATL 27, LAR 31 | |||||||||

SEA at SF SEA 7, SF 27 | SeahawksSEA | at 49ersSF | SF69% | SEA 7, SF 27 | |||||||||

CAR at NYG CAR 16, NYG 19 | PanthersCAR | at GiantsNYG | NYG64% | CAR 16, NYG 19 | |||||||||

IND at JAX IND 0, JAX 24 | ColtsIND | at JaguarsJAX | IND65% | IND 0, JAX 24 | |||||||||

MIA at BAL MIA 42, BAL 38 | DolphinsMIA | at RavensBAL | BAL60% | MIA 42, BAL 38 | |||||||||

NE at PIT NE 17, PIT 14 | PatriotsNE | at SteelersPIT | PIT58% | NE 17, PIT 14 | |||||||||

NYJ at CLE NYJ 31, CLE 30 | JetsNYJ | at BrownsCLE | CLE62% | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | |||||||||

TB at NO TB 20, NO 10 | BuccaneersTB | at SaintsNO | TB58% | TB 20, NO 10 | |||||||||

WSH at DET WSH 27, DET 36 | WashingtonWSH | at LionsDET | WSH56% | WSH 27, DET 36 | |||||||||

LAC at KC LAC 24, KC 27 | ChargersLAC | at ChiefsKC | KC67% | LAC 24, KC 27 | |||||||||

Week 2 points | Week 2 points | Week 2 points |

## Week 1 results

Matchup | FiveThirtyEight forecast 538 forecast | Your forecast | Game score | FiveThirtyEight points 538 points | Your points | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

DEN at SEA DEN 16, SEA 17 | BroncosDEN | at SeahawksSEA | DEN57% | DEN 16, SEA 17 | |||||||||

TB at DAL TB 19, DAL 3 | BuccaneersTB | at CowboysDAL | DAL51% | TB 19, DAL 3 | |||||||||

GB at MIN GB 7, MIN 23 | PackersGB | at VikingsMIN | GB53% | GB 7, MIN 23 | |||||||||

KC at ARI KC 44, ARI 21 | ChiefsKC | at CardinalsARI | KC57% | KC 44, ARI 21 | |||||||||

NYG at TEN NYG 21, TEN 20 | GiantsNYG | at TitansTEN | TEN69% | NYG 21, TEN 20 | |||||||||

OAK at LAC LV 19, LAC 24 | RaidersLV | at ChargersLAC | LAC64% | LV 19, LAC 24 | |||||||||

BAL at NYJ BAL 24, NYJ 9 | RavensBAL | at JetsNYJ | BAL62% | BAL 24, NYJ 9 | |||||||||

CLE at CAR CLE 26, CAR 24 | BrownsCLE | at PanthersCAR | CAR57% | CLE 26, CAR 24 | |||||||||

IND at HOU IND 20, HOU 20 | ColtsIND | at TexansHOU | IND67% | IND 20, HOU 20 | |||||||||

JAX at WSH JAX 22, WSH 28 | JaguarsJAX | at WashingtonWSH | WSH68% | JAX 22, WSH 28 | |||||||||

NE at MIA NE 7, MIA 20 | PatriotsNE | at DolphinsMIA | MIA58% | NE 7, MIA 20 | |||||||||

NO at ATL NO 27, ATL 26 | SaintsNO | at FalconsATL | NO64% | NO 27, ATL 26 | |||||||||

PHI at DET PHI 38, DET 35 | EaglesPHI | at LionsDET | PHI60% | PHI 38, DET 35 | |||||||||

PIT at CIN PIT 23, CIN 20 | SteelersPIT | at BengalsCIN | CIN68% | PIT 23, CIN 20 | |||||||||

SF at CHI SF 10, CHI 19 | 49ersSF | at BearsCHI | SF63% | SF 10, CHI 19 | |||||||||

BUF at LAR BUF 31, LAR 10 | BillsBUF | at RamsLAR | LAR53% | BUF 31, LAR 10 | |||||||||

Week 1 points | Week 1 points | Week 1 points |

## Your custom leaderboards

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/forecasts completed

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