UPDATED Sep. 26, 2022, at 11:28 PM

2022 NFL Predictions

For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.

More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?

elo with top qb
elo rating
1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivision
record
sim. record
point diff.make playoffswin division1st-round byewin super bowl
1672
-11
Bills2-1AFC East12-5+165.590%49%27%16%
1610
+25
Eagles3-0NFC East13-4+131.593%73%40%11%
1625
-15
Buccaneers2-1NFC South12-5+115.589%82%18%11%
1616
-27
Chiefs2-1AFC West11-6+90.378%57%14%9%
1591
+13
Dolphins3-0AFC East12-5+86.388%46%26%8%
1597
+33
Ravens2-1AFC North11-6+84.976%56%12%7%
1589
+17
Packers2-1NFC North11-6+61.977%47%13%6%
1570
+20
Rams2-1NFC West10-7+33.472%51%8%5%
1556
+21
49ers1-2NFC West9-8+55.657%34%4%4%
1564
+28
-127Cowboys2-1NFC East10-7+16.358%19%5%3%
1537
+9
Vikings2-1NFC North10-7+39.768%38%6%3%
1554
+24
-96Browns2-1AFC North9-8+4.443%22%3%3%
1522
+1
Broncos2-1AFC West9-8+18.454%27%5%2%
1500
+64
Jaguars2-1AFC South9-8+57.759%42%5%2%
1531
+26
Bengals1-2AFC North8-9+10.836%16%2%2%
1499
+21
Colts1-1-1AFC South8-8-1-14.747%32%2%2%
1499
-60
-17Chargers1-2AFC West8-9-27.233%12%1%1%
1501
+11
Titans1-2AFC South8-9-40.936%23%1%1%
1475
-21
Cardinals1-2NFC West7-10-44.627%10%1%1%
1482
-27
-17Patriots1-2AFC East8-9-35.726%4%0.9%0.7%
1468
-24
Saints1-2NFC South7-10-42.724%7%0.7%0.6%
1415
-2
Bears2-1NFC North8-9-56.227%9%1%0.4%
1448
-24
Steelers1-2AFC North7-10-60.215%6%0.4%0.4%
1437
-34
Commanders1-2NFC East7-10-51.721%3%0.6%0.4%
1453
-4
Raiders0-3AFC West6-11-46.812%4%0.2%0.4%
1422
-8
Lions1-2NFC North7-10-37.620%6%0.4%0.4%
1420
-31
Giants2-1NFC East8-9-49.926%5%1%0.3%
1411
+24
Panthers1-2NFC South6-11-53.616%6%0.3%0.2%
1399
-18
Seahawks1-2NFC West6-11-79.513%5%0.2%0.2%
1385
+21
Falcons1-2NFC South6-11-67.212%4%0.2%0.2%
1344
-10
Texans0-2-1AFC South4-12-1-119.74%2%<0.1%<0.1%
1343
-16
Jets1-2AFC East5-12-143.83%0.5%<0.1%<0.1%

Week 4

Thursday, Sept. 29

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-0.551%
Bengals49%
Quality
77
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
73
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
75
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Oct. 2

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-360%
Saints40%
Quality
49
Importance
76
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-154%
Ravens46%
Quality
96
Importance
72
Overall
84
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears42%
Giants-2.558%
Quality
12
Importance
68
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-153%
Falcons47%
Quality
13
Importance
48
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars28%
Eagles-6.572%
Quality
74
Importance
49
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-3.562%
Texans38%
Quality
10
Importance
32
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets29%
Steelers-671%
Quality
6
Importance
13
Overall
10
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks39%
Lions-361%
Quality
10
Importance
40
Overall
25
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans43%
Colts-257%
Quality
49
Importance
89
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders42%
Cowboys-258%
Quality
19
Importance
81
Overall
50
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-0.551%
Panthers49%
Quality
20
Importance
55
Overall
38
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-0.553%
Raiders47%
Quality
41
Importance
68
Overall
55
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots27%
Packers-773%
Quality
61
Importance
46
Overall
54
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs41%
Buccaneers-2.559%
Quality
94
Importance
42
Overall
68

Monday, Oct. 3

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams45%
49ers-1.555%
Quality
78
Importance
96
Overall
87

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 6

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts39%
Broncos-361%
Quality
53
Importance
82
Overall
68

Sunday, Oct. 9

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants27%
Packers-773%
Quality
49
Importance
58
Overall
54
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons16%
Buccaneers-11.584%
Quality
47
Importance
28
Overall
38
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%
Vikings-773%
Quality
34
Importance
71
Overall
53
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions37%
Patriots-3.563%
Quality
20
Importance
46
Overall
33
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans23%
Jaguars-8.577%
Quality
12
Importance
30
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers47%
Browns-153%
Quality
36
Importance
86
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-875%
Jets25%
Quality
26
Importance
25
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers17%
Bills-1183%
Quality
74
Importance
25
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks33%
Saints-567%
Quality
17
Importance
43
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-0.552%
Commanders48%
Quality
32
Importance
58
Overall
45
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-3.562%
Panthers38%
Quality
38
Importance
66
Overall
52
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys28%
Rams-6.572%
Quality
56
Importance
65
Overall
61
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-361%
Cardinals39%
Quality
68
Importance
73
Overall
71
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals34%
Ravens-4.566%
Quality
78
Importance
86
Overall
82

Monday, Oct. 10

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders22%
Chiefs-8.578%
Quality
64
Importance
42
Overall
53

Week 6

Thursday, Oct. 13

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders46%
Bears-154%
Quality
15
Importance
68
Overall
42

Sunday, Oct. 16

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-568%
Giants32%
Quality
50
Importance
53
Overall
52
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-0.552%
Saints48%
Quality
48
Importance
63
Overall
56
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars43%
Colts-257%
Quality
48
Importance
92
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings35%
Dolphins-4.565%
Quality
78
Importance
54
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots44%
Browns-1.556%
Quality
30
Importance
85
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets15%
Packers-1285%
Quality
26
Importance
11
Overall
19
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-4.566%
Falcons34%
Quality
31
Importance
59
Overall
45
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-567%
Steelers33%
Quality
65
Importance
34
Overall
50
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-153%
Seahawks47%
Quality
18
Importance
58
Overall
38
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers22%
Rams-8.578%
Quality
41
Importance
41
Overall
41
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
BillsPK51%
Chiefs49%
Quality
97
Importance
76
Overall
87
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys24%
Eagles-876%
Quality
66
Importance
84
Overall
75

Monday, Oct. 17

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos46%
Chargers-154%
Quality
53
Importance
89
Overall
71

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 20

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints41%
Cardinals-2.559%
Quality
33
Importance
70
Overall
52

Sunday, Oct. 23

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons24%
Bengals-876%
Quality
25
Importance
32
Overall
29
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns25%
Ravens-7.575%
Quality
61
Importance
86
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions40%
Cowboys-2.560%
Quality
20
Importance
79
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-464%
Commanders36%
Quality
53
Importance
65
Overall
59
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts39%
Titans-361%
Quality
49
Importance
88
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants32%
Jaguars-5.568%
Quality
28
Importance
59
Overall
44
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-6.572%
Panthers28%
Quality
54
Importance
55
Overall
55
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans28%
Raiders-6.572%
Quality
6
Importance
11
Overall
9
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets21%
Broncos-9.579%
Quality
15
Importance
25
Overall
20
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
ChiefsPK51%
49ers49%
Quality
86
Importance
70
Overall
78
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks29%
Chargers-671%
Quality
22
Importance
39
Overall
31
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers24%
Dolphins-876%
Quality
57
Importance
41
Overall
49

Monday, Oct. 24

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears34%
Patriots-4.566%
Quality
21
Importance
54
Overall
38

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens39%
Buccaneers-361%
Quality
92
Importance
48
Overall
70

Sunday, Oct. 30

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-153%
Jaguars47%
Quality
54
Importance
88
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals31%
Vikings-5.569%
Quality
51
Importance
74
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers47%
Falcons-153%
Quality
7
Importance
44
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears32%
Cowboys-5.568%
Quality
25
Importance
80
Overall
53
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-4.566%
Lions34%
Quality
50
Importance
53
Overall
52
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-3.562%
Jets38%
Quality
10
Importance
33
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders40%
Saints-360%
Quality
28
Importance
40
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers20%
Eagles-9.580%
Quality
61
Importance
32
Overall
47
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-465%
Texans35%
Quality
12
Importance
37
Overall
25
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants45%
Seahawks-1.555%
Quality
10
Importance
54
Overall
32
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers37%
Rams-3.563%
Quality
78
Importance
97
Overall
88
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders34%
Colts-4.566%
Quality
32
Importance
63
Overall
48
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers29%
Bills-6.571%
Quality
95
Importance
48
Overall
72

Monday, Oct. 31

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-153%
Browns47%
Quality
45
Importance
91
Overall
68

Week 9

Thursday, Nov. 3

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-8.577%
Texans23%
Quality
30
Importance
21
Overall
26

Sunday, Nov. 6

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-1183%
Jets17%
Quality
43
Importance
15
Overall
29
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers27%
Bengals-773%
Quality
32
Importance
42
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-4.566%
Lions34%
Quality
49
Importance
76
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts45%
Patriots-1.555%
Quality
43
Importance
84
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-3.562%
Falcons38%
Quality
19
Importance
48
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-567%
Bears33%
Quality
48
Importance
58
Overall
53
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-257%
Commanders43%
Quality
41
Importance
76
Overall
59
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders36%
Jaguars-464%
Quality
36
Importance
63
Overall
50
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks32%
Cardinals-568%
Quality
18
Importance
54
Overall
36
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams34%
Buccaneers-4.566%
Quality
89
Importance
53
Overall
71
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans25%
Chiefs-7.575%
Quality
76
Importance
59
Overall
68

Monday, Nov. 7

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-361%
Saints39%
Quality
64
Importance
62
Overall
63

Week 10

Thursday, Nov. 10

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons39%
Panthers-361%
Quality
7
Importance
45
Overall
26

Sunday, Nov. 13

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks21%
Buccaneers-979%
Quality
50
Importance
29
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns28%
Dolphins-6.572%
Quality
60
Importance
64
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos49%
Titans-0.551%
Quality
54
Importance
86
Overall
70
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions44%
Bears-1.556%
Quality
13
Importance
73
Overall
43
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans29%
Giants-671%
Quality
4
Importance
21
Overall
13
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars28%
Chiefs-6.572%
Quality
75
Importance
60
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings25%
Bills-7.575%
Quality
90
Importance
42
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints42%
Steelers-2.558%
Quality
27
Importance
49
Overall
38
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts49%
Raiders-0.551%
Quality
35
Importance
66
Overall
51
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals30%
Rams-670%
Quality
59
Importance
82
Overall
71
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys43%
Packers-257%
Quality
83
Importance
84
Overall
84
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers32%
49ers-5.568%
Quality
62
Importance
68
Overall
65

Monday, Nov. 14

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders22%
Eagles-978%
Quality
58
Importance
48
Overall
53

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 17

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans31%
Packers-5.569%
Quality
71
Importance
61
Overall
66

Sunday, Nov. 20

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers18%
Ravens-10.582%
Quality
48
Importance
31
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears47%
Falcons-153%
Quality
7
Importance
55
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns18%
Bills-10.582%
Quality
76
Importance
39
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions43%
Giants-257%
Quality
13
Importance
68
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-257%
Saints43%
Quality
57
Importance
78
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets25%
Patriots-7.575%
Quality
10
Importance
24
Overall
17
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.559%
Colts41%
Quality
74
Importance
79
Overall
77
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders-1.556%
Texans44%
Quality
5
Importance
26
Overall
16
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders33%
Broncos-567%
Quality
41
Importance
70
Overall
56
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys46%
Vikings-154%
Quality
73
Importance
90
Overall
82
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-2.559%
Chargers41%
Quality
75
Importance
90
Overall
83
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-2.558%
Steelers42%
Quality
42
Importance
71
Overall
57

Monday, Nov. 21

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-3.562%
Cardinals38%
Quality
56
Importance
90
Overall
73

Week 12

Thursday, Nov. 24

12:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-876%
Lions24%
Quality
68
Importance
40
Overall
54
4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants24%
Cowboys-876%
Quality
42
Importance
70
Overall
56
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots35%
Vikings-4.565%
Quality
53
Importance
67
Overall
60

Sunday, Nov. 27

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons36%
Commanders-464%
Quality
10
Importance
46
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-153%
Jaguars47%
Quality
72
Importance
83
Overall
78
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears-153%
Jets47%
Quality
4
Importance
31
Overall
18
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals47%
Titans-153%
Quality
56
Importance
86
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-2.558%
Panthers42%
Quality
30
Importance
62
Overall
46
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans13%
Dolphins-1387%
Quality
27
Importance
11
Overall
19
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-1.556%
Browns44%
Quality
87
Importance
64
Overall
76
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers46%
Cardinals-154%
Quality
41
Importance
73
Overall
57
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders47%
Seahawks-153%
Quality
15
Importance
32
Overall
24
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams36%
Chiefs-464%
Quality
87
Importance
62
Overall
75
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints30%
49ers-670%
Quality
54
Importance
80
Overall
67
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers40%
Eagles-360%
Quality
90
Importance
86
Overall
88

Monday, Nov. 28

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers36%
Colts-464%
Quality
34
Importance
71
Overall
53

Week 13

Thursday, Dec. 1

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-5.569%
Patriots31%
Quality
81
Importance
79
Overall
80

Sunday, Dec. 4

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-6.571%
Texans29%
Quality
20
Importance
35
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos32%
Ravens-568%
Quality
77
Importance
80
Overall
79
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-567%
Bears33%
Quality
47
Importance
82
Overall
65
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-154%
Lions46%
Quality
28
Importance
70
Overall
49
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets19%
Vikings-1081%
Quality
17
Importance
21
Overall
19
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers-0.552%
Falcons48%
Quality
12
Importance
36
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans28%
Eagles-6.572%
Quality
74
Importance
58
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders45%
Giants-1.555%
Quality
16
Importance
77
Overall
47
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins47%
49ers-153%
Quality
82
Importance
73
Overall
78
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks22%
Rams-978%
Quality
37
Importance
55
Overall
46
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.555%
Bengals45%
Quality
81
Importance
82
Overall
82
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers49%
RaidersPK51%
Quality
35
Importance
64
Overall
50
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts34%
Cowboys-4.566%
Quality
64
Importance
79
Overall
72

Monday, Dec. 5

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints23%
Buccaneers-8.577%
Quality
70
Importance
65
Overall
68

Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 8

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders28%
Rams-6.572%
Quality
53
Importance
43
Overall
48

Sunday, Dec. 11

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-464%
Steelers36%
Quality
58
Importance
75
Overall
67
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns46%
Bengals-154%
Quality
69
Importance
93
Overall
81
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans17%
Cowboys-1183%
Quality
21
Importance
21
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars43%
Titans-257%
Quality
49
Importance
93
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-2.559%
Lions41%
Quality
36
Importance
79
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets10%
Bills-1590%
Quality
43
Importance
10
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-5.569%
Giants31%
Quality
53
Importance
74
Overall
64
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-1.555%
Chargers45%
Quality
70
Importance
79
Overall
75
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers47%
Seahawks-153%
Quality
8
Importance
44
Overall
26
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-0.552%
49ers48%
Quality
87
Importance
78
Overall
83
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-1.556%
Broncos44%
Quality
80
Importance
96
Overall
88

Monday, Dec. 12

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots39%
Cardinals-361%
Quality
36
Importance
65
Overall
51

Week 15

Thursday, Dec. 15

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-465%
Seahawks35%
Quality
34
Importance
70
Overall
52

Sunday, Dec. 18

Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons32%
Saints-5.568%
Quality
15
Importance
49
Overall
32
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens49%
Browns-0.551%
Quality
83
Importance
95
Overall
89
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts41%
Vikings-2.559%
Quality
57
Importance
82
Overall
70
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins32%
Bills-5.568%
Quality
95
Importance
98
Overall
97
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants37%
Commanders-3.563%
Quality
16
Importance
71
Overall
44
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-0.552%
Jaguars48%
Quality
65
Importance
83
Overall
74
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions-154%
Jets46%
Quality
4
Importance
26
Overall
15
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-978%
Texans22%
Quality
32
Importance
23
Overall
28
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-566%
Bears34%
Quality
52
Importance
76
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers48%
Panthers-0.552%
Quality
16
Importance
43
Overall
30
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals36%
Broncos-464%
Quality
47
Importance
72
Overall
60
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals30%
Buccaneers-670%
Quality
83
Importance
51
Overall
67
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans42%
Chargers-258%
Quality
49
Importance
85
Overall
67
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots46%
Raiders-154%
Quality
32
Importance
58
Overall
45

Monday, Dec. 19

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams36%
Packers-464%
Quality
84
Importance
71
Overall
78

Week 16

Thursday, Dec. 22

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-465%
Jets35%
Quality
12
Importance
44
Overall
28

Saturday, Dec. 24

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons18%
Ravens-10.582%
Quality
40
Importance
28
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-8.577%
Bears23%
Quality
65
Importance
46
Overall
56
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals50%
PatriotsPK50%
Quality
51
Importance
87
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions44%
Panthers-1.556%
Quality
12
Importance
55
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans23%
Titans-8.577%
Quality
12
Importance
30
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints31%
Browns-5.569%
Quality
53
Importance
65
Overall
59
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants27%
Vikings-773%
Quality
36
Importance
77
Overall
57
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks17%
Chiefs-1183%
Quality
48
Importance
29
Overall
39
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders26%
49ers-774%
Quality
46
Importance
70
Overall
58
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles49%
Cowboys-0.551%
Quality
86
Importance
92
Overall
89
8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders43%
Steelers-257%
Quality
23
Importance
42
Overall
33

Sunday, Dec. 25

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers42%
Dolphins-258%
Quality
87
Importance
66
Overall
77
4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos36%
Rams-464%
Quality
71
Importance
73
Overall
72
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-463%
Cardinals37%
Quality
71
Importance
59
Overall
65

Monday, Dec. 26

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers42%
Colts-258%
Quality
48
Importance
88
Overall
68

Week 17

Thursday, Dec. 29

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-0.552%
Titans48%
Quality
65
Importance
81
Overall
73

Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-1.555%
Falcons45%
Quality
16
Importance
57
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers18%
Buccaneers-10.582%
Quality
54
Importance
50
Overall
52
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears42%
Lions-2.558%
Quality
13
Importance
74
Overall
44
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-2.560%
Commanders40%
Quality
45
Importance
71
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos30%
Chiefs-670%
Quality
80
Importance
96
Overall
88
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-154%
Giants46%
Quality
27
Importance
79
Overall
53
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-465%
Texans35%
Quality
12
Importance
50
Overall
31
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-258%
Patriots42%
Quality
66
Importance
83
Overall
75
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints24%
Eagles-876%
Quality
67
Importance
60
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers24%
Ravens-876%
Quality
58
Importance
63
Overall
61
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets34%
Seahawks-4.566%
Quality
3
Importance
14
Overall
9
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-258%
Raiders42%
Quality
50
Importance
58
Overall
54
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%
Packers-464%
Quality
78
Importance
98
Overall
88
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-153%
Chargers47%
Quality
66
Importance
75
Overall
71

Monday, Jan. 2, 2023

8:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-3.563%
Bengals37%
Quality
89
Importance
74
Overall
82

Week 18

Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023

Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals32%
49ers-5.568%
Quality
56
Importance
88
Overall
72
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-0.552%
Bengals48%
Quality
78
Importance
93
Overall
86
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers35%
Saints-4.565%
Quality
19
Importance
59
Overall
39
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-2.558%
Steelers42%
Quality
48
Importance
80
Overall
64
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-361%
Commanders39%
Quality
47
Importance
88
Overall
68
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions22%
Packers-8.578%
Quality
49
Importance
65
Overall
57
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans23%
Colts-8.577%
Quality
12
Importance
34
Overall
23
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.565%
Raiders35%
Quality
64
Importance
63
Overall
64
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers39%
Broncos-361%
Quality
53
Importance
93
Overall
73
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-566%
Seahawks34%
Quality
37
Importance
71
Overall
54
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-360%
Bears40%
Quality
34
Importance
89
Overall
62
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots20%
Bills-9.580%
Quality
81
Importance
59
Overall
70
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants20%
Eagles-9.580%
Quality
53
Importance
61
Overall
57
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets15%
Dolphins-1285%
Quality
26
Importance
18
Overall
22
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-7.575%
Falcons25%
Quality
47
Importance
48
Overall
48
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans43%
Jaguars-257%
Quality
49
Importance
94
Overall
72

Completed

Week 3

Thursday, Sept. 22

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers50%17
BrownsPK50%29
Quality
22
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
81
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
52
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Sept. 25

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
RavensPK51%37
Patriots49%26
Quality
67
Importance
85
Overall
76
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-257%19
Dolphins43%21
Quality
95
Importance
96
Overall
96
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-256%27
Jets44%12
Quality
25
Importance
36
Overall
31
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions30%24
Vikings-670%28
Quality
36
Importance
71
Overall
54
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans34%20
Bears-4.566%23
Quality
4
Importance
28
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.566%17
Colts34%20
Quality
75
Importance
54
Overall
65
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-258%14
Panthers42%22
Quality
19
Importance
55
Overall
37
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders38%22
Titans-3.562%24
Quality
34
Importance
49
Overall
42
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.559%24
Commanders41%8
Quality
62
Importance
83
Overall
73
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars26%38
Chargers-774%10
Quality
46
Importance
55
Overall
51
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons35%27
Seahawks-4.565%23
Quality
5
Importance
26
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers33%14
Buccaneers-567%12
Quality
91
Importance
66
Overall
79
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
RamsPK51%20
Cardinals49%12
Quality
60
Importance
88
Overall
74
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers49%10
BroncosPK51%11
Quality
71
Importance
68
Overall
70

Monday, Sept. 26

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys34%23
Giants-4.566%16
Quality
14
Importance
82
Overall
48

Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 15

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers33%24
Chiefs-567%27
Quality
90
Importance
92
Overall
91

Sunday, Sept. 18

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers36%16
Giants-464%19
Quality
13
Importance
53
Overall
33
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-465%0
Jaguars35%24
Quality
26
Importance
60
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins40%42
Ravens-360%38
Quality
74
Importance
78
Overall
76
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots42%17
Steelers-258%14
Quality
45
Importance
74
Overall
60
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets38%31
Browns-3.562%30
Quality
9
Importance
38
Overall
24
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-258%20
Saints42%10
Quality
82
Importance
93
Overall
88
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders-1.556%27
Lions44%36
Quality
21
Importance
63
Overall
42
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons21%27
Rams-979%31
Quality
24
Importance
31
Overall
28
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks31%7
49ers-5.569%27
Quality
36
Importance
77
Overall
57
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals42%29
Raiders-258%23
Quality
34
Importance
51
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-4.566%17
Cowboys34%20
Quality
19
Importance
53
Overall
36
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans24%9
Broncos-876%16
Quality
20
Importance
33
Overall
27
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%10
Packers-773%27
Quality
46
Importance
67
Overall
57

Monday, Sept. 19

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans24%7
Bills-876%41
Quality
86
Importance
42
Overall
64
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings45%7
Eagles-1.555%24
Quality
76
Importance
66
Overall
71

Week 1

Thursday, Sept. 8

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills47%31
Rams-153%10
Quality
91
Importance
59
Overall
75

Sunday, Sept. 11

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-3.562%24
Jets38%9
Quality
34
Importance
51
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns43%26
Panthers-257%24
Quality
10
Importance
48
Overall
29
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-567%20
Texans33%20
Quality
21
Importance
51
Overall
36
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars32%22
Commanders-5.568%28
Quality
18
Importance
41
Overall
30
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots42%7
Dolphins-2.558%20
Quality
56
Importance
85
Overall
71
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-464%27
Falcons36%26
Quality
19
Importance
54
Overall
37
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.560%38
Lions40%35
Quality
33
Importance
64
Overall
49
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers32%23
Bengals-568%20
Quality
56
Importance
75
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-3.563%10
Bears37%19
Quality
37
Importance
59
Overall
48
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-153%7
Vikings47%23
Quality
79
Importance
93
Overall
86
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-257%44
Cardinals43%21
Quality
72
Importance
64
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants31%21
Titans-5.569%20
Quality
36
Importance
50
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders36%19
Chargers-464%24
Quality
59
Importance
79
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers49%19
CowboysPK51%3
Quality
84
Importance
67
Overall
76

Monday, Sept. 12

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-257%16
Seahawks43%17
Quality
34
Importance
60
Overall
47

Quarterback ratings

The top quarterbacks for each team and their value in Elo points, which are used in our quarterback-adjusted model. Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running. Initial rookie ratings are based on draft position; undrafted rookies begin their careers with an Elo value of zero, while a first overall draft pick starts with an Elo value of 113.

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West